Theory: Weak Overpairs In 3bet Pots

[simo_8ball 0]

I really think a lot of people misplay these situations, and often those that play correctly don't understand why:All stacks 100bbDealt to Hero: 9 9 :spade:Folds to Hero, who raises to 3bb. 2 folds, SB reraises to 9bb, hero calls.Flop (19bb): 8 8 2 :heart:SB bets 10bb, Hero?Remaining stacks are 81bb.What is your plan with the following variables (just a general discussion, not analysing each case specifically):Villain is a bad LAG/good LAG/weak tight/loose passive/good TAG/nit.You have a nitty/TAG/LAG image.You have 200bb or 70bb stacks. Why does this change your play (if at all)?The flop is 842/J42/QQ5/etcThis is 10nl/100nl/1000nl/etc.Villain pots the flop.Villain checks the flopVillain has position.You raised from UTG/BTN.If you raise, what are you doing against a call or shove?If you call, what are you doing against a lead on various turn cards? What are you doing if he checks various turns?What if you have 67s or AK here? How and why does your play change?etc.Most important, why does your play change with the different variables?

[Lucoo_ 0]

Villain is a bad LAG/good LAG/weak tight/loose passive/good TAG/nit.

He is all that at once ??? Does that mean he raises a lot while slowplaycalling and then mucking his cards on the same street ??

[ROBBBIGG 0]

I REALLY hope this thread gets a lot of discussion because I almost never know what to do here.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Folding small overpairs in spots like these is at worst a small mistake.In the specific original scenario, calling to evaluate the turn is probably fine.

1) Villain is a bad LAG/good LAG/weak tight/loose passive/good TAG/nit.2) You have a nitty/TAG/LAG image.3) You have 200bb or 70bb stacks. Why does this change your play (if at all)?4) The flop is 842/J42/QQ5/etc5) This is 10nl/100nl/1000nl/etc.6) Villain pots the flop.7) Villain checks the flop8) Villain has position.9) You raised from UTG/BTN.10) If you raise, what are you doing against a call or shove?11) If you call, what are you doing against a lead on various turn cards? What are you doing if he checks various turns?12) What if you have 67s or AK here? How and why does your play change?13) Most important, why does your play change with the different variables?

1) Against certain bad LAGs, I call the flop. Against a good LAG, I fold the flop. Against a weak-tight, I call or raise. Against a loose-passive, I fold. Against a good TAG, I fold. Against a nit, I fold.2) If I'm playing LAG and they're aware of it, I realize that their range might be slightly wider. That said, I'm not sure that it has a big enough effect on my decision to alter my action. Certainly not as much as the first point.3) With 200bb stacks, we can more easily call the flop and evaluate the turn. That said, we're also potentially going to be facing a lot more pressure on all streets. (Though our opponent may face that same pressure.) With 70bb stacks, our calling pre-flop is a lot closer...but I think I'm default folding (maybe calling) there also.4) Flops are pretty similar...though I'm more hesitant to fold the 3rd one since it's the only one that might reasonably cause a better villain hand to slow down on later streets.5) Limits shouldn't affect anything aside from the general quality of opponents...in that regard, see the first point.6) This typically makes me think that villain has less of a hand since he's betting so large on such a dry board. That said, it may just be the player's standard bet. If I do think it's weakness, I prefer raise/folding.7) I bet here and cry when the villain decided to get cute by check-raising his bigger pair. (That said...it does pick up the pot a lot from someone that whiffed AQ/AJ and decided to shut down.)8) Villain having position makes me even more reluctant to continue.9) If I raise UTG, I expect any competent villain to give me more credit...and thus show up with a narrower range...which inclines me to fold. If I'm on the button, he could be playing back a bit wider, so that inclines me a bit more to continuing.10) Folding typically. Villain will've said he has a better hand 3 times by that point.11) The reason this hand is such a pain is that even if we're not beat now, there are 20 cards that can come on the turn that could connect with villain's overcards, so we're going to be somewhat blind in that regard. The only saving grace is that we've got position...but we're almost never winning this pot by knocking villain off of a better hand than ours.12) Unless I have a specific read of villain, I'm folding those too.13) I think I've justified each, but I can explain more if you'd like.

[MikeBauer26 0]

Excellent Simo,I am No.1 in misplaying these spots, so I feel confident to write what I will normally do here and hope to get some improvements.Ok.10 NL - I am on the button raising 99, SB reraises me. Flop comes 882.I hate these spots. Normally I don't like raising with Pairs on the button as it is not really my style.And when I do and become reraised I normally end up blowing some chips there. Normally I will be put on a good hand by the thinking players though, as I don't do it too often. So here are my thoughts:LAG villain bets into me:If villain is LAG and known to reraise with with any two face cards, I will assume I am good sofar. Generally I will flat call his first conti-bet and try to get to the showdown as cheap as possible. I will shutdown on facecards that meet villains range though. If I read him as "AK/AQ" I will probably flat call his bet on the flop and turn as long as it is a brick. LAG villain checks:Depending. If I've seen him C/R-ing al lot I'll probably check behind as there are no draws that could hurt him directly and even Aggo-Villains can sometimes show up with KK or AA. Other that that if he checks -> I bet potsize. My standard continuation bet. If he calls that though I will presume I am dead, as there are no really draws on the board and I can't put him on calling that with two overcards.(I Only ever fire half pot sized continuation bets when I hold QQ and the flop comes Q72rainbwow, because any random donk will automatically happily try to raise me of my "missed AK".)If I am checkraised I will call a "min-raise" but fold to the Big Guns. If villain leads the turn. With a brick or overcard, I am not trying anything funny (unless I spike the 9 of course).Generally I will be aggressive on the flop and turn but will not blow my remaining chips on the river, becaus even If he's dumb-agressive. Most of his hands he calls the river with will have me crushed there.Tight villain bets into me:I think I will flat call his first shot at the pot. IF villain checks the turn AND turn card is below a queen and Not another 8, I will fire 2/3s of the Pot but presume I'm dead when being called or CRed.Tight villain checks to me:Anyone else noticed that disturbing trend on 10 NL on stars that many people just miss their contibet with AK in a Multiway Pot?I will definately bet out. But check to the end when being called (unless turn or river is a 9 of course). Will also presume I ran into KK or AA when being CRed and fold in that case as I give tight villains credit for not reraising from SB with AK.OK.... think I have made enough mistakes so far and would welcome your thoughts on my thoughts here. My own afterthoughts and the way I play the hand are that I am most likely lost here anyway -> Funny enough: Poker tracker shows a net loss for 99 as I either fail setmining or run into higher sets when I actually hit. Same with 88. All others pairs show a profit.On the side: if you "KNOW" villain has AA, KK, or QQ and you flop set of 88 in position on a 258-Board against the tight villain. How do you proceed. Villain will fire Pot no matter what on flop. Do you raise/shove the flop, or the turn, or flat call to river?

[CobaltBlue 662]

Normally I don't like raising with Pairs on the button as it is not really my style.

This is a leak.

[Royal_Tour 0]

This is a leak.

agreealso, I didnt really read much of the indepth replies. although i did read Cobalts mention about it being a small mistake, which i agree with.In a spot like this, if your playing an average abc type player, I often call behind here.They (meaning the majority of players) will give up with AK,AQ type holdings, and/or smaller PP's. that should give u a better idea of where you are,Now I've obviously been in spots like this, and call, and then see a A or K hit the turn, and they fire again. and thats just bad luck.I'd rather make a call with position, than raise the flop

[psujohn 0]

NL is all about maximizing vs your opponents range right? So the key factor here is what's the opponents 3-bet range in this situation. A LAG will have a much wider 3-bet range. If our initial raise came from LP a thinking villain will have a wider 3-bet range (specially if we open a lot in LP). If villain's range is QQ+, AK then we have 40% equity at the flop. I think that means we have to call. If we widen villain's range it only gives us more equity.Mostly though it depends on how villain will play unimproved overs on the turn. If he's agg enough to fire again then it makes me more likely to want to just fold the flop and minimize the tough decisions. If he's almost always shutting down on a whiffed turn then it should push us towards a call I think. Worst case is a villain who's tricky enough to check a big overpair on a blank turn.IDK, my default in these situations was always to raise/fold the flop but I don't really like that line the more I think about it. I think call vs a tight ABC kind of player and fold against very agg or tricky opponents.

[CardWarfare 4]

Maybe I missed it, but I haven't seen anyone talk about leading the flop here against any player who will put in that third raise preflop with anything other than a bigger pair. A decent sized bet should define their hand range fairly narrowly. Of course this gives a LAG the chance to be a little tricky, but this bet will do a couple of things for you. First of all, besides giving you information, it doesn't let your opponent check behind you with AK/AQ/whatever he three bet you with. Secondly, if you lead with your very strong hands as well, which I recommend all no limit players do a high percentage of the time, you will end up getting a lot of cheap show downs by freezing up hands like 10-10, J-J and maybe even Q-Q depending on your opponent and what comes on the turn and river. What I like to do is take the essentially the same line heads up on the flop and turn when I flop trips on this board and when I have a hand like 9-9, 7-7, 6-6. I'll lead the flop with a bet about 3/4 the pot with the intention of folding most of the time with my middle pairs (the exception here is obviously if I think either my opponent is making a move or if I think I can steal it), and I'll make the same bet when I pump it up with a hand like 8-7 suited and hit that flop. Then, if I get reraised I'll jam the flop. But if I get called when I'm holding either type of hand I'll check the turn. This way I can control the size of the pot with my middle pairs (I'm usually letting it go if he makes any type of a decent bet on the turn), and I can add a little deception with my trips. It looks like the same hand. So lets say he smooth calls the flop with tens or jacks and an ace, king, or queen falls on the turn. My opponent is usually checking behind me now where he would likely bet again had I smooth called the flop. I understand that if you check/call with flopped trips a lot on the flop you can earn free turns here as well, but check/calling doesn't get you much information. Ok, I know I'm rambling now. This is all coming out very disorganized, but a lot of this stuff is good so fuck off. So, assuming we take the same line when we flop trips or when we have a middle pair it allows us to be very tricky on the river depending on our read of the villain. What I like to do is bluff the river with my middle pairs when I think I got called by tens or jacks and an over card falls on the turn and river. And I'm not talking about a small bluff either because I like to really make a big bet after checking the turn with my trips. If the turn is a blank and he checks behind I'll check a blank river most of the time as well with the intention of calling because he can't really check the turn behind with a hand that can call you on the river unless it's a monster in which case you don't want to lead the river anyway. I know I left a lot of stuff out here, but lets discuss this line some more if anybody wants to.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Maybe I missed it, but I haven't seen anyone talk about leading the flop here against any player who will put in that third raise preflop with anything other than a bigger pair.

The way the hand is set up, we're in position and incapable of donkbetting...aside from a small corollary where simo asks what we'd do OOP.As for donkbetting, Cobalt Theorem holds that I will raise your donkbet 95% of the time with ATC. This works because most of the time you're "testing" your middle pairs as opposed to having hit trips.

[psujohn 0]

Maybe I missed it,

In the OP we're in position.Still it's an interesting line oop but:1) don't you think a c/r reps flopped trips more than a lead?2) do you really ever show up here with an 8 that's not 88? Do you really lead w/flopped quads?In general I'm a fan of playing my big hands fast - if they have something you win the most, if they have nothing you weren't going to get more anyway - but with quads or a flopped boat I'll slow down a bit.

[Temporary Nuts 1]

This is a leak.

Well... doesn't that depend on the situation?I mean, if an overpair makes up a majority of our opponents range (which in a decent number of spots I can see), isn't it better to call and play for a set than to 3 bet it?

[simo_8ball 0]

Well... doesn't that depend on the situation?I mean, if an overpair makes up a majority of our opponents range (which in a decent number of spots I can see), isn't it better to call and play for a set than to 3 bet it?

He's talking about open limping the button, not flat calling a raise on the button.

[CobaltBlue 662]

He's talking about open limping the button, not flat calling a raise on the button.