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Live Hand From Bellagio $2500


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OK, first of all, I had a sick table...to my direct left, Sheets, Lindgren, and JC Tran. Here's the details of the hand.100-200 blind, 25 ante.7700 in our stack before the hand and we're on the button.Tran (utg) limps as do three others and I look down at K10off so I limp as well. Sheets completes and Lindgren checks his option so six players to the flop and 1450 in the pot.Flop comes 7710 with two diamonds and all five players check to me, I bet 1000.Sheets folds, Lindgren raises to 2800 total and the table folds around to me.Decision time:I have 6500 chips, Lindgren has 1500 more than me. What hands would you put him on, and how would you play it?

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If I could put players like Erick Lindgren on hands, I would probably host my own forum on my own website, and my bankroll would be much larger.However, I think we can just call here and see what develops on the turn. I would suggest using your position to keep the pot as small as possible, and if Lindgren puts out a bet on the turn that would commit you, I would fold.You could probably post that table draw in the bad beat forum, though. That's pretty sucky.

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I think this is a fold or shove. I lean towards folding as I don't see Lindgren bluffing in this spot as he goes for a C/R on a draw heavy board with many players involved. We also can't narrow down his range too much because he was in BB, he also has invested about 30% of his stack here on the flop so I see a big bet coming on the turn, if you are even considering flat calling. I just find it very unlikely that he has less than a 7 in his hand, he didn't price out the flush draw but I think he's willing to give decent odds for some action here. I think he could also have some kind of combo draw with dia and a gutshot or open ended. I just don't think it's a great spot for us to look to double, I think Lindgren would lead out with a 10 here.I am making the assumption you guys are both short, is this correct? It would be good to know starting stack/avg stack.

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I am making the assumption you guys are both short, is this correct? It would be good to know starting stack/avg stack.
It's level 4 of the event, and the starting stacks were 5000. We were probably around the average at the time.
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It's level 4 of the event, and the starting stacks were 5000. We were probably around the average at the time.
Ah, I was assuming deeper stacks. Just by the structure though, there isn't an incredible amount of postflop play here with avg M around 15. That means it could be a move more often than not, but I really don't like your hand against a C/R in a multiway pot. You can still fold and not be in horrible shape, it's really close to me though, I just don't want to get my money in here with tpgk.
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I'll post what I did and why as well as the result after some more people get to weigh in on what they would do.

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However, I think we can just call here and see what develops on the turn. I would suggest using your position to keep the pot as small as possible, and if Lindgren puts out a bet on the turn that would commit you, I would fold.
- disagreei think people give this check raise to much credit , who says he was planning it , maybe he thinks heroes week he didi just bet a checked around pair board flop from the button. i dont see eric playing a seven this way out of position i think, he would lead flop or just call i think this is air, and i shove but i wouldnt be totaly suprised if he knew i was thinking that and chekcraised A7, but i still ogt at least 2 outs :club:
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Id say about 1/3 of the time he has a 7 or AT and is 80% to win, 1/3 of the time he has 2 diamonds and is 33% to win, and 1/3 of the time hes got air or a worse T and is 20% to win. Overall youre about a 55:45 favorite. Id send a message to the very tough table and push back here. You may even have some fold equity against a weak 7.

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Id say about 1/3 of the time he has a 7 or AT and is 80% to win, 1/3 of the time he has 2 diamonds and is 33% to win, and 1/3 of the time hes got air or a worse T and is 20% to win. Overall youre about a 55:45 favorite. Id send a message to the very tough table and push back here. You may even have some fold equity against a weak 7.
I'd say the hands with flush draws are probably about 40% rather than 33% because of potential pair outs. If he has AT he is 82% and if he has a seven he is ~90%. I would average those out at about 88% because any seven is possible, even 72o.I think it's pretty close. If we shove he is always going to fold a weaker 10 (he made an information raise and we told him what he was looking for). He may fold a weak flush draw as well (questionable - I'm not sure if he would make the small raise with a FD unless it was say the 8d9d). He will always call with the 7 or higher flush draws (or flush + straight draws).Given that we don't get any more money when he has a worse 10, and that when called we will be either 60% or 12% I'm leaning towards a fold. He is raising into 5 players here, not just one.Whatever it is, it's ugly.
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Id say about 1/3 of the time he has a 7 or AT and is 80% to win, 1/3 of the time he has 2 diamonds and is 33% to win, and 1/3 of the time hes got air or a worse T and is 20% to win. Overall youre about a 55:45 favorite. Id send a message to the very tough table and push back here. You may even have some fold equity against a weak 7.
You think a small ball player like Lindgren would bluff into four people on a very coordinated flop with air 1/3 of the time?
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You think a small ball player like Lindgren would bluff into four people on a very coordinated flop with air 1/3 of the time?
Lindgren likes to raise a LOT of flops. I've been at the table with him in three tournaments and discerned that he is likely to raise when he feels that:a) the opponent is weakb ) he feels the opponent is continuation betting a preflop raisec) he has a drawd) he has a good but vulnerable hand with value in raising the flopI know that seems standard, but where most people call, he will raise. If you continuation bet, he'll raise, and only one of the four options I gave above require that he actually has a made hand. The fact is, he raises the flop about 50% more often than ANY other player I've ever played against, be it amateur, pro, online or live. So this raise by him, regardless of how many people are in the pot, is pretty standard in regards to his game.
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Lindgren likes to raise a LOT of flops. I've been at the table with him in three tournaments and discerned that he is likely to raise when he feels that:a ) the opponent is weakb ) he feels the opponent is continuation betting a preflop raisec ) he has a drawd ) he has a good but vulnerable hand with value in raising the flopI know that seems standars, but where most people call, he will raise. If you continuation bet, he'll raise. The fact is, he raises the flop about 50% more often than ANY other player I've ever played against, be it amateur, pro, online or live. So this raise by him, regardless of how many people are in the pot, is pretty standard in regards to his game.
Well that just makes things even more awkward.I'm still not convinced he would be willing to regularly raise here and risk 1/3 of his stack with air in a multiway pot.1) If we are beat we are crushed (~10% to win).2) If we are not beat we are only ~60%.3) He plays this exactly like a seven would.4) All sevens are possible.5) We don't generally get paid off if we have him crushed.I would have to fold.
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Al, what would you say Lindgren's read on you is?
Do you mean his read on me in that hand or his read on me as a player?It seems that many of the name players either play me as a complete nit or a complete LAG. The truth is somewhere inbetween. Honestly, I don't think he has paid that much attention to my game in the times we've played to have a "book" on me, but was rather just playing his basic ABC game in the hand.
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Personally, I bet a little less on the flop, probably 700, and fold to his check-raise.Do you really want to go to war with TP2K on a paired, 2 flush board? You are crushed by 7x, TT, behind JJ (which he may not raise pf with) and AT, and ahead of a bluff or a flush draw...

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You mention that we're behind A10, but don't mention that we're ahead of ANY other 10 combinaiton other than 10-7. There are plenty of hands that we could be behind, but also just as many that we're ahead of. Not to mention what hands he would put US on with a call or a raise. Hence the tough decision.Personally I find it strange that so many of the people here would fold...I'm assuming that your decision is because of the fact that it's Lindgren. Perhaps if I had left the name off the decisions would be different, but maybe not. Seems to me that people fear the players they see on television and always make them for the nuts, which is why it's so easy for a guy like Lindgren to rake so many small pots with his raises on the flop. Makes sense don't you think?

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such a ****ing tough decision...i guess thats why hes a great player. he prob knows u have a 10 or air/draw and assumes you will fold to the re raise...so i guess i push if this is a normal tourney i play not out of my BR or anything....but he prob has trips 7s :club: and that is why he is better than I

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You mention that we're behind A10, but don't mention that we're ahead of ANY other 10 combinaiton other than 10-7. There are plenty of hands that we could be behind, but also just as many that we're ahead of. Not to mention what hands he would put US on with a call or a raise. Hence the tough decision.Personally I find it strange that so many of the people here would fold...I'm assuming that your decision is because of the fact that it's Lindgren. Perhaps if I had left the name off the decisions would be different, but maybe not. Seems to me that people fear the players they see on television and always make them for the nuts, which is why it's so easy for a guy like Lindgren to rake so many small pots with his raises on the flop. Makes sense don't you think?
Against every possible 10 or seven we are a 6/4 dog.Against a range of all:10-X7-XXd-Xdwe are a 55/45 dog.Now, I would assume he will play a seven in this manner most of the time, or at least more often than he would a ten.I would assume he would c/r more often with a seven than with a flush draw, especially a low FD.If we shove, he will fold all tens we beat. I can't see him stackng off with QT.He won't fold trips.If those are reasonable suggestions, I think folding is the correct play.
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You mention that we're behind A10, but don't mention that we're ahead of ANY other 10 combinaiton other than 10-7. There are plenty of hands that we could be behind, but also just as many that we're ahead of. Not to mention what hands he would put US on with a call or a raise. Hence the tough decision.Personally I find it strange that so many of the people here would fold...I'm assuming that your decision is because of the fact that it's Lindgren. Perhaps if I had left the name off the decisions would be different, but maybe not. Seems to me that people fear the players they see on television and always make them for the nuts, which is why it's so easy for a guy like Lindgren to rake so many small pots with his raises on the flop. Makes sense don't you think?
I don't take this line because it is a name player. I take this line because I estimate he has:ATo 25% of the time and we are a 3:1 dog7x 20% of the time and we are a 11:9 dogTT 5% of the time and we are 99:1 dogJJ 10% of the time and we are 4:1 dogTx with x <K 15% of the time and we are 5:1 favoriteFlush draw 15% of the time and we are 2:1 favorite (as long as one of the diamonds is less than T)89o 10% of the time and we are 2:1 favorite(25% x 25%) + (20% x 8%) + (5% x 1%) + (10% x 20%) + (15% x 83%) + (15% x 66%) +(10% x 66%) = 39.2% to win or ~3:2 dog.The pot is offering 2.9:1, but it is push or fold.If you push, he calls you when you are are behind, and folds when you are ahead...therefore you are risking 6700 to win 5250 as a dog (assuming this hand distribution). You have to increase this percentage of hands you are ahead to over 60% to make this a good play.If you fold your M is still over 12, and I'd wait for a better spot.
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I don't take this line because it is a name player. I take this line because I estimate he has:ATo 25% of the time and we are a 3:1 dog7x 20% of the time and we are a 11:9 dogTT 5% of the time and we are 99:1 dogJJ 10% of the time and we are 4:1 dogTx with x <K 15% of the time and we are 5:1 favoriteFlush draw 15% of the time and we are 2:1 favorite (as long as one of the diamonds is less than T)89o 10% of the time and we are 2:1 favorite(25% x 25%) + (20% x 8%) + (5% x 1%) + (10% x 20%) + (15% x 83%) + (15% x 66%) +(10% x 66%) = 39.2% to win or ~3:2 dog.The pot is offering 2.9:1, but it is push or fold.If you push, he calls you when you are are behind, and folds when you are ahead...therefore you are risking 6700 to win 5250 as a dog (assuming this hand distribution). You have to increase this percentage of hands you are ahead to over 60% to make this a good play.If you fold your M is still over 12, and I'd wait for a better spot.
Your percentages are WAY off. You are assuming he has ATo 25% more often than he has trips when he checkraises the flop (25:20), but there are only 8 combinations of AT compared to about 90 combinations of possible sevens he can hold.There are 6 combinations of JJ and only 1 combination of TT, but JJ is only twice as likely as TT. You see where I'm going with this?
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My first impression with the hand is that he has the flush draw or a worse ten. It's obviously possible that he has a 7 because of being in the bb and everything, but the play of the hand seems to me like he check his 10 then decided the c/r the late position bet(which could easily be a steal). If I read the post right, Lindgren has a stack of 9200? So he's putting in about a third of his stack on this flop? It just seems to me like a worse ten, or a flush draw, and a small percentage of the time it's a seven. As far as the play of the hand, calling is pretty much out of the question, imo. I don't think calling here is going to freeze him unless we already have him beat, I'm probably pushing. flush draw folds, I'm think A-10 probably folds, and like someone said earlier, you might even have some fold equity versus a bad 7. Verdict: Push.but then again, I'm pretty terrible at poker, so this analysis is probably pretty terrible.

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