Posted 20 October 2005 - 09:56 PM
I kind of agree with everybody else. Since you are commiting most of your chips getting only about two to one pot odds with a flush draw that isn't even for the nuts and feel that you are almost definitly beat, it is most likely an annoying but still pretty easy laydown to make. Plus with that board (Jh 9h 2h Ks) the most likely hands for your opponent to be playing fast are JJ, 99, 22, a small flush or AhKx. All these hands are beating you as is J9 even. If he is holding a nut hand like Ah 10h you are drawing dead as well. (although this hand is unlikely because the player you are up against clearly doesn't want action) I really can't think of a hand legitimate hand that you are beating besides an AhJx. Even if your opponent just has Ahjx or the naked ace of hearts he could still draw out on the river. Muck your queens and find a better spot. 8)A note to everyone who seems to want to beilieve that Ah Jx is the most likely holding up DN's opponent: Even it was Ah Jx in this singular case DN already quoted that he did not feel like his opponent was that weak. So his read told him the opposite of what alot of very smart guys are making very cogent arguments for. The second manipulation of the actual facts I've heard is that his oppenent was somehow" slowing playing" thus making a set unlikely. But how does checkraising from 400 to 1900 constitute a slowplay? Since when is quadrupling the bet slow? Perhaps Daniel's opponent check raised a set on the flop with the idea of possibly passing if Daniel reraised all- in at that point. Once the off suit king fell his opponent probably wanted to accomplish two ends. 1. Take down a good down sized pot then and there without giving Daniel a chance for a cheap draw in case he were holding AhKx or Ah Jx. Or 2. Knowing DN's propensity for playing low suited connectors, possibley make Daniel fold a low flush. What's the object of a good bet: Make a draw pay too high a price or make a better hand fold etc. Since Daniel read his opponent for strength, why not read him for making a good bet here? After all DN hasn't really invested that much and surely must feel that he can outplay his opponents in smaller or at least more clear cut situations. Oh by the way In this spot if I read my opponent for a bluff I would probably call and hope to show down the river for free no matter what card hit(with the possible exception of an off suit ace) but it's totally different to me when you have to ignore your read to make a chopligical argument for calling with bad odds because your opponent might have the one hand you are actually beating.Anybody who wants to respond please feel free to poke a hole in my logic. Maybe there is some element I'm missing here.