Top Pair + Nut Flush Draw Decision

[linkwood 0]

1/2 nlhe @ the venetianStack SizesShort Stack - ~50Hero - ~400Villain - covers hero by $1The short stack in this hand is sort of a loose donk who is somewhat passive, but she doesn't seem to have a good idea of hand selection. I'm sure I'm ahead of her, or at least flipping at every point in the hand. The villain is somewhat tight, yet I wouldn't consider him solid. He's been at the table for a few hours, only played a few hands, and played them relatively bad and sometimes did some surprising things, none of which I can remember now. He seems to overvalue his one pair hands, but it has to be a strong one pair hand. He's not stacking off with AJ on this board. I'm probably viewed as somewhat LAG. Hero is dealt A J one fold, villain limps, hero limps, 2 folds, MP limps, one fold, button limps, sb (short stack) raises to 25, one fold, villain calls, hero calls, two folds.(Pot: 81)Flop: A K 2 sb bets 25, villain raises to 70, hero???In my mind the villains range is pretty narrow. His most likely hands are AK, AQ, or A2s (weird, but possible). Less likely he could also have AA, KK, AJ, A10, or 22. He's not raising a draw here. Honestly, I think I need to either just call or shove. If I raise without shoving he will call with his entire range except for the hands I currently beat, but if I shove he is passive enough to fold AQ and A2, and he will call with everything else that beats me. If I just call, what do I do if I brick the turn and he leads? What if the turn is the A ? J ?

[mtdesmoines 3]

I think you need to go ahead and bet $200. SB is coming along, she's already committed. I don't think this is AK, if the villain is a decent player. You MAY be looking at A2. Which is fine. You have a ton of outs twice.

[David_Nicoson 1]

Neither of your hands look very AKish from the preflop action. (Did you consider limp/reraising? If you're confident that you're coin-flipping or better with the short-stack, you get 1/2 the dead money.)He almost has to put the hero on 22 to fold a better hand. The hero has position. I'd say call if we're confident in our ability to play the turn against this villain. On the other hand, pushing isn't horrible, because we certainly have a lot of equity regardless. We could certainly play it worse by making a mistake on the turn.

[NoBBiR 0]

Call his bet, it's big, but that's what happens when idiots make it 25 to go preflop in 1/2. The short stack is all-in already, and probably has a better hand than us, but you have a ton of out. The villains range is sort of large but I think we're ahead of it. You should be at least calling, never folding.I think raising is stupid because if he has a set he's going to shove and possibly push us off of our very good hand, and destroy our positional advantage. We have position and a very strong (but drawing) hand, so just call. Depending on what the turn is and the villains actions, I'm still willing to fold or go all the way after the turn comes off.

[Acid_Knight 2]

He almost has to put the hero on 22 to fold a better hand. The hero has position. I'd say call if we're confident in our ability to play the turn against this villain. On the other hand, pushing isn't horrible, because we certainly have a lot of equity regardless. We could certainly play it worse by making a mistake on the turn.

I don't hate a call here. If you raise, you're never getting called by worse too often, although I think A2 is technically a worse hand than yours at this point. You make a mistake by pushing and he's got AK/AQ or a set. I don't hate calling here, but it does open you up to making a much larger mistake on the turn AND it kinda makes your hand look more like a FD, which is basically what you're playing it as then.I probably raise to $225 and obv call if he shoves.

[Acid_Knight 2]

The short stack is all-in already, and probably has the best hand

I think this is rarely true and I wouldn't care about them for obv reasons anyway, but I really don't think that the SB ever has to have the best hand here.

[David_Nicoson 1]

If you raise, you're never getting called by worse too often, although I think A2 is technically a worse hand than yours at this point.

A2 is a dog to our hand, but not so much that we want him to call. We make more money when A2 folds.Just clarifying.

[NoBBiR 0]

I think this is rarely true and I wouldn't care about them for obv reasons anyway, but I really don't think that the SB ever has to have the best hand here.

I actually meant "a better hand than us." I'm just a moron.**I amended it

[Temporary Nuts 1]

DEWWW EEEET RAISE THAT SUCKER! $200 baby!

[linkwood 0]

Ok, that's what I thought, the raise is pretty standard. I raised, he thought for five minutes freaking out about folding the hand and finally shoved with ak. I crushed his soul when I spiked the 3d on the river. Not sure what the short stack had. I'd rather be lucky than good.

[Royal_Tour 0]

preflop, your hand has some value, especially since its a 1/2 cash game, where lots of people over value weak aces.i'd raise here preflop, villain might end up re-raising, or not. regardless, villains lines will change dramatically since you showed strength and you can stack him. Donk showed all the strength but he only has 50, and some people who play part time would rather gamble against short stacks with 0 implied odds, than play deep stacks.

[linkwood 0]

preflop, your hand has some value, especially since its a 1/2 cash game, where lots of people over value weak aces.i'd raise here preflop, villain might end up re-raising, or not. regardless, villains lines will change dramatically since you showed strength and you can stack him. Donk showed all the strength but he only has 50, and some people who play part time would rather gamble against short stacks with 0 implied odds, than play deep stacks.

I agree, with the first part, which is why I played the hand in the first place. But I was OOP and felt it was more likely that I would run into a weaker ace if I didn't raise. Once the short stack raised, I was confident that I had her beat and if I wanted to get heads up with her I would have raise there. But at that point I wanted to play a big pot with the villain, because, as you said, he was the one with the money. If I reraise there then he folds everything I beat and calls with everything that crushes me.

[Snamuh 0]

I don't hate a call here. If you raise, you're never getting called by worse too often, although I think A2 is technically a worse hand than yours at this point. You make a mistake by pushing and he's got AK/AQ or a set. I don't hate calling here, but it does open you up to making a much larger mistake on the turn AND it kinda makes your hand look more like a FD, which is basically what you're playing it as then.I probably raise to $225 and obv call if he shoves.

It's not a mistake if he has AQ. We're flipping with a miniscule advantage vs AQ (without the Qd) and we're 47/53 if he holds the Qd. With the fold equity involved and the SB's dead money, I think a push is +EV. AK is just too unlikely. We're 53/47 vs any A2. Really the only hand we're significantly behind is a set of deuces and it's still only 31/69. With the equity of the SB in this hand, a shove is still a +EV play.Edit: Just noticed that villain had AK and limp/called preflop which is awful. And if he considered folding it on this board, he's terrible.

[Royal_Tour 0]

I agree, with the first part, which is why I played the hand in the first place. But I was OOP and felt it was more likely that I would run into a weaker ace if I didn't raise. Once the short stack raised, I was confident that I had her beat and if I wanted to get heads up with her I would have raise there. But at that point I wanted to play a big pot with the villain, because, as you said, he was the one with the money. If I reraise there then he folds everything I beat and calls with everything that crushes me.

you're not OOP to the villain.when playing cash games, you need to be aware of everyone at the table just like in tournaments. who do you have position on, and so forth.You have position on the big stack who limped in EP. Your raise, followed by a re-raise by the short stack will give you a lot of info on villain.If he calls or raises, obv youir AJs sucks. but you limped, and she raised 25 and he calls. I dont know the table, but its live game, and thus, ranges go way up. I'm sure he'll call almost any PP here, Big ace, maybe even suited connectors... why not right? Live play is very loose.So now what do you do? you call the 25 multiway, surely your ace is no good? so basically you're calling 25 for a flush? Now not only do you need villain to hit a hand, but u need to hit a flush.all because you're lost in this hand from the start and are simply calling with hopes and dreams.anyways, call was answereed and yiou flopped miracle.

[linkwood 0]

you're not OOP to the villain.when playing cash games, you need to be aware of everyone at the table just like in tournaments. who do you have position on, and so forth.You have position on the big stack who limped in EP. Your raise, followed by a re-raise by the short stack will give you a lot of info on villain.If he calls or raises, obv youir AJs sucks. but you limped, and she raised 25 and he calls. I dont know the table, but its live game, and thus, ranges go way up. I'm sure he'll call almost any PP here, Big ace, maybe even suited connectors... why not right? Live play is very loose.So now what do you do? you call the 25 multiway, surely your ace is no good? so basically you're calling 25 for a flush? Now not only do you need villain to hit a hand, but u need to hit a flush.all because you're lost in this hand from the start and are simply calling with hopes and dreams.anyways, call was answereed and yiou flopped miracle.

I see your point but I felt like I had a good feel for this guy and how he played. I don't know that my ace is no good here. I know he has a hand, but I also know that his post flop play is very transparent, so I felt confident in my ability to outplay him after the flop. That's actually the point of the post. If I flop top pair with the nut flush draw against almost anyone else at the table I hellmuth my chips into the pot. But against this guy I know he's never playing the hand after the flop this way with a hand I beat at showdown unimproved. The problem with the hand was that my plan for it was thwarted from the beginning. The villain wasn't my mark at the table. There were plenty of other ATMs there who would have paid me off, so I played the hand to maximize my chances of getting their chips. When the short stack raises and the villain calls though my plans change and I shift gears to play against the villain, who plays a bizarre form of TAG poker that is fairly easy to read and outplay after the flop. So I don't really feel I was lost at any point until the actual decision where I am able to narrow down his possible holdings to 3 likely hands. If the flop comes A92r and the action is the same I dump the hand. Its that simple. This guy played weird preflop but VERY transparent postflop.