Tournament All In?

[Jordan 1]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)UTG+1 (t12496)MP1 (t10538)MP2 (t16327)MP3 (t12425)CO (t22302)Button (t18187)Hero (t26444)BB (t18865)UTG (t10970)Preflop: Hero is SB with 9 , A . 6 folds, Button raises to t2400, Hero raises to t7200, 1 fold, Button raises to t18137, My read on duder was the he had been min raising AA - KQ type hands, so I gave him a wide range...and getting 2.5:1 I really felt like this was a tough spot.Blinds were also about to be moving up to 6-1.2kIt was a 10r on stars.- Jordan

[simo_8ball 0]

I think the reraise preflop is fine, although I wouldn't object to folding (OOP, marginal hand, shallowish stacks post flop).You're OK folding to the allin. I don't think he expects you to fold, so I don't see him having a weak hand very often here. At best you're against 77/88. Other than that you are dominated by almost all of his possible holdings.Also, you'll be on the button next hand with higher blinds, and a good chance to try and make back the 7200 over the next few hands where you have good position.

[copernicus 0]

If youre going to raise (especially to 40% of his stack) you need to know in advance what youre going to do if he pushes back. A9 is not a hand i want to play out of position for a lot of chips. If you put him on a range that A9 is a favorite over (eg a steal), then push yourself so youre not in this position.If you dont think you can stand a push reraise, then just call and see the flop. Raising here makes no sense to me.

[simo_8ball 0]

I hate calling here. OOP with A9 in a $6k pot with only $15k left in villain's stack is an unenviable place to be. We can SO easily be outplayed postflop.I also dislike moving in $18k after a raise to $2400.A raise to $7k announces that we have a hand and we put him to a decision for his stack. He can't realistically call 40% of his stack to see a flop. It is also enough that we can fold to a push.

[Actuary 3]

I'm listening.these plays are not in my repetoire; but for 6/10 Man STT"s restealing/folding is hardly ever necessary, I think.personally, Im probably folding preflop unless he's stealing with abandon, then I might pick this hand to push.I'm always uncomfortable with the raise-give myself 2.5:1 and then talk myself into folding because of the info, in a 10r.

[Wingman008 0]

I would personally fold straight away.Oop with a marginal hand? Nope.

[rocketpoker828 0]

You're OK folding to the allin. I don't think he expects you to fold, so I don't see him having a weak hand very often here.

But Jordan doesn't necessarily have to have a strong hand to raise, so doesn't that make the Button's range wider?

[copernicus 0]

I hate calling here. OOP with A9 in a $6k pot with only $15k left in villain's stack is an unenviable place to be. We can SO easily be outplayed postflop.I also dislike moving in $18k after a raise to $2400.A raise to $7k announces that we have a hand and we put him to a decision for his stack. He can't realistically call 40% of his stack to see a flop. It is also enough that we can fold to a push.

Sorry, but it makes no sense to commit 25% of your stack and then fold to a raise getting 2.6:1, when you can close out the betting and see a flop if you arent willing to play the hand. That isnt even close to being rational.

[simo_8ball 0]

Sorry, but it makes no sense to commit 25% of your stack and then fold to a raise getting 2.6:1, when you can close out the betting and see a flop if you arent willing to play the hand. That isnt even close to being rational.

I hate calling there and I think pushing is too much. We are both deep enough to make this a normal raise, but we aren't deep enough to just call this and play a flop comfortably.We get good fold equity by making it $7k as it looks more like a huge hand than moving all-in. It should get almost all hands we are beating to fold. A8 and 66 shouldn't be able to continue, and KQ/KJ would depend on the player, but it would normally be a fold I think. I would expect the pushing range to be AJ+, 88+ (although AJ is questionable). That gives us about breakeven pot odds, but I think we can fold. In this instance we can factor in that becasuse we are going to be the button next we should have a better than average chance of making back some of the loss in the next few hands.If we move in we probably only get called by AQ+, 99+, not too dissimilar to his pushing range from a $7k raise, and only about a 1.5% equity difference.I agree that is seems odd raising to 25% of our stack and folding, but villain has to realise that we probably aren't folding to his allin, and thus he needs a dominating hand to move in (maybe 88/77).

[copernicus 0]

I hate calling there and I think pushing is too much. We are both deep enough to make this a normal raise, but we aren't deep enough to just call this and play a flop comfortably.We get good fold equity by making it $7k as it looks more like a huge hand than moving all-in. It should get almost all hands we are beating to fold. A8 and 66 shouldn't be able to continue, and KQ/KJ would depend on the player, but it would normally be a fold I think. I would expect the pushing range to be AJ+, 88+ (although AJ is questionable). That gives us about breakeven pot odds, but I think we can fold. In this instance we can factor in that becasuse we are going to be the button next we should have a better than average chance of making back some of the loss in the next few hands.If we move in we probably only get called by AQ+, 99+, not too dissimilar to his pushing range from a $7k raise, and only about a 1.5% equity difference.I agree that is seems odd raising to 25% of our stack and folding, but villain has to realise that we probably aren't folding to his allin, and thus he needs a dominating hand to move in (maybe 88/77).

It doesnt seem odd, it seems ridiculous. Youre deep enough to play post flop after a raise, but not deep enough to play post flop after a call? The lower the pot and the deeper stacks left behind the easier it is to play post flop. A9 isnt fun to play OOP with any stacks, much less one where the opponent will be pot committed with any bet. But with a call you can make a 3/4 pot bet blindfolded and if youre forced to fold youll be in the same chip position youre in with a 7200 pre-flop raise, and have picked up more folding equity than even a preflop push has in the vast majority of cases.The only negative i can see to calling is it invites BB into the pot. However, he should be aware that he's squeezed by Button on any post flop decision, particularly your 3/4 pot bet, so if he is going to play this hand its more likely to be with a push of his own with a monster...and again youve wasted less chips than with a raise.In a couple of your own "push-bot posts" you point out the leverage you get in a tourney from the potential of moving your stack way up, but here youre going to plan ahead to fold a neutral or +EV bet that gives you a 2:1 chip lead over your closest competitor? Is this another "defend the indefensible" threads?

[simo_8ball 0]

Youre deep enough to play post flop after a raise, but not deep enough to play post flop after a call? The lower the pot and the deeper stacks left behind the easier it is to play post flop. A9 isnt fun to play OOP with any stacks, much less one where the opponent will be pot committed with any bet.

I don't think he can call our raise. We put him to a push/fold situation normally with this raise.

But with a call you can make a 3/4 pot bet blindfolded and if youre forced to fold youll be in the same chip position youre in with a 7200 pre-flop raise, and have picked up more folding equity than even a preflop push has in the vast majority of cases.

I don't really want to see a flop, but your line makes sense. I'm unsure about which play gets us more fold equity, but I would assume it's about 75% (and could be higher) with a raise preflop. I don't know if we get a fold that often post flop, and we can also trap ourselves if we hit.

The only negative i can see to calling is it invites BB into the pot. However, he should be aware that he's squeezed by Button on any post flop decision, particularly your 3/4 pot bet, so if he is going to play this hand its more likely to be with a push of his own with a monster...and again youve wasted less chips than with a raise.

You don't think that calling a raise OOP with A9o has a few negatives to it? I think it's a fairly poor play. I know you like defending your blinds though, so if you are comfortable with it then I won't argue.

In a couple of your own "push-bot posts" you point out the leverage you get in a tourney from the potential of moving your stack way up, but here youre going to plan ahead to fold a neutral or +EV bet that gives you a 2:1 chip lead over your closest competitor?

We are still above table average if we fold to the allin. If the table average was $30k then I call. Yes, winning an all-in here would give us a large advantage, but even by folding we have most of the table covered. I think the odds are extremely close, and I'd like at least a small edge before playing a huge pot with 27% equity.

Is this another "defend the indefensible" threads?

I don't see what is indefensible about this.

[copernicus 0]

"I don't see what is indefensible about this."Only because you dont want to. Every argument you are making is basically "there is no great way to play the hand, but im willing to invest 3x as much money to play it, despite no evidence that its a superior line"eg:"We are still above table average if we fold to the allin. If the table average was $30k then I call. Yes, winning an all-in here would give us a large advantage, but even by folding we have most of the table covered. I think the odds are extremely close, and I'd like at least a small edge before playing a huge pot with 27% equity."You acknowledge the leverage of the big stack and have previously acknowledged that calling his all-in is neutral EV (I would put it at +EV because your range was too narrow). You cannot possibly defend investing more chips than you have to only to turn around and quit on a play that you already agree is +$EV."You don't think that calling a raise OOP with A9o has a few negatives to it?"Yes, of course it does, but no where near the negatives that tripling your investment has, and youve done nothing to demonstrate otherwise."I don't really want to see a flop, but your line makes sense. I'm unsure about which play gets us more fold equity, but I would assume it's about 75% (and could be higher) with a raise preflop. I don't know if we get a fold that often post flop, and we can also trap ourselves if we hit."When are you more likely to get trapped if you hit...when youve invested more in the pot so calling odds become more favorable, thanks partially to your own money, or where you have the flexibility to fold with a larger remaining stack and the ability to better control/react to pot/implied odds? Raising is an inferior line to the alernatives whether you are looking for fold equity (pushing is better for preflop fold equity, calling is better for postflop play), or value (you have more flexibility with a bigger stack and smaller pot).

[Jordan 1]

Well, I called.I wasn't sure really of what exactly his range was here. I'm pretty sure KJ/KQ be in his range, as well as AT+ and most pairs.I called hoping it was a small pair, or any pair besides AA (obv).Like I said blinds were going up and I was "playing to win"...I guess, and thought that as marginal as my hand may have been, if I win I'm going to be looking real good.He showed A3o btw, so lucky for me I "caught" him, or something. I know my call was marginal..and thanks for the replies...I'm not sure if I could just re-raise All in here, but maybe I should start thinking about that and putting all the pressure back on my opponent. I'm still getting used to the idea of just pushing preflop, and I think it's a skill I need to work out (not necc. applying to this hand, just in general).- Jordan

[simo_8ball 0]

I'd written out this post earlier and then got sidetracked by a film before finishing it. Jordan's results basically destroy my ranges, so I'll have to rethink things.Folding:We lose 400.Pushing Allin:Pushing allin isn't a bad play, but I think Villain has too many chips for this to be worthwhile.Suppose a raising range of any 2 broadway, 22+, A2s+, A6o+ = 24% of hands. Reasonable?Now assume he will call the allin with AJ+, 77+ = 7.2% of hands. Reasonable? I don't see AT or 66 calling allin.3/10:we have 29% equity in a ~37k pot = ~10800 = ~-7000-7000 x 3/10 = ~-21007/10:we take 100% of a 3600 pot = +36003600 x 7/10 = ~25002500 - 2100 = +400.Pushing allin only makes us 400 chips. This is very rough work, but I think it shows we are dealing with a small margin.I think the math is right - correct me if I'm wrong. If you think the ranges are different post them and I'll go through the calculations (if you don't feel like it).Raise/Fold:Assume same raising range of 24% of hands and same pushing range as previous calling range. Reasonable? I don't think he will push wth KQ, and I don't think he will push with 66.3/10 he pushes we fold = -6800 = average ~-20407/10 we win 3600 = ~25002500 - 2000 = 500About the same as pushing. There is far less variance involved in this approach however as we risk at most 6800. (Hey, I have to find some way to support my choice, right?)Calling:Firstly, (before I end up proving myself wrong and you right in the calculations), I think the worst play we can make is calling the raise with A9. Considering you would said you fold this in CO+1 in an when folded to you I don't know why you would call with it OOP in raised pot.This is FAR harder to quantify.You suggest making a 3/4 pot bet almost regardless of the flop. In that case the pot is 5600 and you would be betting say 4k.If he folds, we are +3600, and if he pushes (and we fold) we lose $6k.We need slightly over 60% fold equity for it to be breakeven, and we need about 67% FE to make this as good as reraising preflop. Not sure how you can easily quantify this, but I can't see us winning with this bet 2/3 of the time.Overall, it doesn't appear that there is too much difference between the 3 options, but I prefer the raise/fold line as it removes any potentially difficult postflop decisions. Any idea how we could estimate the fold equity from the stop and go?

[copernicus 0]

"Jordan's results basically destroy my ranges, so I'll have to rethink things."hmmmm....sounds a bit like results oriented thinking.Jordan, one of the most basic considerations in pushing preflop vs raising with a marginal hand is, as I said in my first post in this thread, what would you do to a push back. If the answer is youd call the push, then push yourself. the fold equity you pick up can easily be the difference between a winning play and a donk call.

[Jordan 1]

"Jordan's results basically destroy my ranges, so I'll have to rethink things."hmmmm....sounds a bit like results oriented thinking.Jordan, one of the most basic considerations in pushing preflop vs raising with a marginal hand is, as I said in my first post in this thread, what would you do to a push back. If the answer is youd call the push, then push yourself. the fold equity you pick up can easily be the difference between a winning play and a donk call.

werd, thx co-co.- Jordan

[Gooser 0]

i like the raise as a feeler and since he went over the top id lay it down - youre still in solid chip position. =D

[simo_8ball 0]

"Jordan's results basically destroy my ranges, so I'll have to rethink things."hmmmm....sounds a bit like results oriented thinking.

It is, but it does show I was massively wrong with my estimations. I was assuming our raise would appear quite strong, possibly stronger than pushing. Given the result, my assumption was clearly wrong.In essence, I am not using the results to determine the play, I am using the results for information about the player. Is this bad?

[copernicus 0]

It is, but it does show I was massively wrong with my estimations. I was assuming our raise would appear quite strong, possibly stronger than pushing. Given the result, my assumption was clearly wrong.In essence, I am not using the results to determine the play, I am using the results for information about the player. Is this bad?

If its information you wouldnt have had at the time of the play of the hand, of course its "bad".

[simo_8ball 0]

If its information you wouldnt have had at the time of the play of the hand, of course its "bad".

Yeah, I wanted to cheat. Oh well.