Folding The 2nd Nuts

[Petoria 0]

My opponent had been very tight post flop.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxHero ($140.50)BB ($134.55)UTG ($233.70)MP ($190.60)CO ($91.45)Button ($56.80)Preflop: Hero is SB with [8c], [Jc]. UTG calls $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.Flop: ($8) [Qd], [9d], [Tc] (4 players)Hero bets $6, BB calls $6, UTG raises to $20, CO folds, Hero raises to $34, BB folds, UTG raises to $231.7, Hero folds.Final Pot: $279.70Just a couple more things, my opponenet was talking to me during the hand and his all in after my 3rd bet was instantaneous.The guy wasnt tricky. He raises with any of those PP's preflop, so I don't believe a set is an option.I'm questioning it more now that I have time to analyze, but all I can see as other possibilities are some sort of str8 flush draw. Thx for the help guys.

[NoSup4U 0]

About two weeks ago I had a hand play out exactly like this at a home game. I foolishly folded the second nuts and my opponent showed me his set. Granted its results based thinking, but I've agonized over that hand almost daily since.In your situation, for you to be beat, the guy needed to limp from UTG with KJ. I don't play a lot of 6 handed, but that just seems like an odd play for that hand. In a game I play in, I would conceivably limp from UTG with QQ, TT, or 99 knowing the pot will surely be raised behind me and i can reraise. I don't know how likely that is for you or not. I think with the second best hand and some reasons to think your opponent might hold a set (although I think you felt that was unlikely) or some type of sf draw, you need to call there.Mark

[Scott3705 0]

Since you said he's tight post flop, does that mean, he's not making this move with jq seeing this much aggression?

[Petoria 0]

Since you said he's tight post flop, does that mean, he's not making this move with jq seeing this much aggression?

Insta-allin then chatting with me, hard for me to put him on pair and a str8 draw.Although I've been wrong before.

[Jordan 1]

with your read i'd say KJ or QJ or maybe even JTd- Jordan

[Petoria 0]

with your read i'd say KJ or QJ or maybe even JTd- Jordan

sooooooooooo...........fold?Another issue I have is that even if I have the best hand, I dont think I'm more than a 2 to 1 favorite

[Scott3705 0]

sooooooooooo...........fold?Another issue I have is that even if I have the best hand, I dont think I'm more than a 2 to 1 favorite

I think you would have to put a percentage on the amount of times you think you're ahead and just do the calculation out. based on what you think, it seems small.

[macphec 0]

If stacks were deeper then I could get away from this but with your stack size I'm going busto every time in that spot.No chance of a donkey limp utg w AA?

[Petoria 0]

If stacks were deeper then I could get away from this but with your stack size I'm going busto every time in that spot.No chance of a donkey limp utg w AA?

Well, the guy wasnt a donkey first of all.Secondly, I made my 3rd raise small bc I knew this guy was tight, and I needed information. The point of it was to let me get away from the hand if I thought I was beat.Should the insta-allin play a factor in my decision? His chatting?

[xtxoxpxd 0]

raising to $34, you're making him put $14 more into a $60 pot. call.

[Petoria 0]

raising to $34, you're making him put $14 more into a $60 pot. call.

Well, my 3rd raise says I've got a made hand. I know it was small, but I still thought that he had to have another BIG hand to push in for 85 more.If he just calls, I push a non-diamond turn.

[macphec 0]

Well, the guy wasnt a donkey first of all.Secondly, I made my 3rd raise small bc I knew this guy was tight, and I needed information. The point of it was to let me get away from the hand if I thought I was beat.Should the insta-allin play a factor in my decision? His chatting?

Looks like you had a decent read and if you read him for exactly KJ (ie the nuts) then the fold is the correct play. I just think with that board you are going to see 2 pair, sets, and flush draws too often to fold with your stack size.As far as the chat or the insta push go, I would not put much faith in that as a tell unless I'd seen him do something similar with the nuts before.I would argue that limping utg with KJ is donkish but that's neither here nor there.

[MasterLJ 0]

KJ in 6 handed is not that bad.Here's a question:"Do you fold KK pre-flop?"Most don't... ever.Pay off the first nuts if you have the second. Just purely statistical, you don't think you have the better hand here more than half the time?

[Petoria 0]

KJ in 6 handed is not that bad.Here's a question:"Do you fold KK pre-flop?"Most don't... ever.Pay off the first nuts if you have the second. Just purely statistical, you don't think you have the better hand here more than half the time?

That's not the only issue at hand though. If he doesnt have a set, then he's semi-bluffing. If he's on a semi-bluff, it's some sort of strong flush draw, and more likely a str8 flush draw.If I call, then he's either got the nuts, or a strong draw to the nuts. If I only believe that he only has the nuts half the time, a naked flush draw 1 in 6 and a str8 flush draw the rest of the time, should I call? It's close.Obviously I dont do all this math in my head during the hand, but my point is just bc you have the best hand more than half the time, that doesnt make the call correct.I see that most of you think that I was wrong by folding, so thanks for the advice.

[dereeekho 0]

There is a distinct possibility that he limped in with 99 from UTG, but it's 50/50 whether he'd jam with 99 after your min re-raise.I think UTG does not want to see the turn, and he is jamming since he had a made hand (re: straight and does not want to see a turn card) or he has a massive draw and he want to get the money in right here and gamble.

[WestcoastCanuck 0]

If he has:KJ = You are drawing to a 3 outer to a split.Set = You are a 60% favourite.A 10 or K 10 of diamonds = You are a 60% favourite.AJ of diamonds = You win 48%, he wins 43%, tie 7%.My point is even if you are ahead, it is not by much. I think AJd or KJ is his most likely holding here, given your read. KJ sucks and AJd is basically a race. It is always bad to make a call where you are racing at best, so I would lay it down. Definatly a tough fold though.

[ICrushHomeGames 0]

My opponent had been very tight post flop.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxHero ($140.50)BB ($134.55)UTG ($233.70)MP ($190.60)CO ($91.45)Button ($56.80)Preflop: Hero is SB with [8c], [Jc]. UTG calls $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.Flop: ($8) [Qd], [9d], [Tc] (4 players)Hero bets $6, BB calls $6, UTG raises to $20, CO folds, Hero raises to $34, BB folds, UTG raises to $231.7, Hero folds.Final Pot: $279.70Just a couple more things, my opponenet was talking to me during the hand and his all in after my 3rd bet was instantaneous.The guy wasnt tricky. He raises with any of those PP's preflop, so I don't believe a set is an option.I'm questioning it more now that I have time to analyze, but all I can see as other possibilities are some sort of str8 flush draw. Thx for the help guys.

Min-raising, in general, accomplishes very few positives. Why give him a chance to hit on a very, very draw-heavy board? If you're going to raise, raise with significance as if to say, "I'm representing a big hand here." And mi-raising many times gives away the strength of your hand.6-maxers are maniacs. This is a fact of the universe. Villain could make this play with a wide range of hands (set, top 2, overpair, J T , nuts), and you should have priced yourself in more on the turn to make this call a little bit easier.

[Limit Player 0]

I don't mini-raise his raise and I pay off a bad UTG KJ limp if that's what happened. I think your made hand is beating whatever he pushed with and he got you to make a scared fold.

[Petoria 0]

I don't mini-raise his raise and I pay off a bad UTG KJ limp if that's what happened. I think your made hand is beating whatever he pushed with and he got you to make a scared fold.

Why is limping UTG with KJ that bad?Why do you think I'm beating whatever he pushed with?Please put some type of reasoning with your conclusions.

[silkyjonson 1]

seems like top two pair could be viable. The flush draw complicates the issue in my opinion, making him more likely to think you could have a flush draw he could be betting with QT or many could have hoped for a reraise with pocket pair but pre flop raise never got there. Most times I call here