Posted 25 August 2005 - 08:36 AM
First of all what was the original raiser's hand on 5th? [x-x] A-5-4?I assume to cap 5th, Op2 (4-10-8) has to have either two pair or a set (assuming he's rainbow). Probably he has 8s over 4s or a set of 8s. We have to watch out for his boat draw.To 3-bet 5th, there's a good chance Op1 (A-5-4) has a made low. It's also possible he has a pair of aces and a strong low and straight draw, or aces up. If he makes a low, he will certainly be willing to cap every street from here on out.So on 5th the pot is about 780 and it's 120 back to you? Then on 6th if it is capped three ways, there would be 1620 in pot, and on 7th if it's capped again that would be 2340. Thus you're getting 6-1 to see 6th, and 5.75-1 to see 7th.Now trips on 5th fill up by showdown 29% of the time, while 2 pair fill up 18% of the time. If Op2 has two pair, you beat him at showdown 88% of the time. If he has trips, you beat him about 76% of the time.If Op1 has the wheel, you're only beating him for the high 29% of the time. If he has a inside straight draw, he'll only take the high 10% of the time. If he has aces and an inside straight draw, he's 19% to win. If he has aces up, he's 16% to win.Obviously if Op1 has a made low he's 100% to win that half. If he has a low draw he is 31% to make it.All in all I think it adds up to a call on 5th. You are pretty sure Op2 will only win the high about 1/5 of the time. Let's assume Op1 will claim the low 2/3 of the time, and will win the high 1/5 of the time. Then your EV is (1/3*3/5)+(1/2*2/3*3/5) = .4. Just barely +EV.If either opponent catches scary on 6th (OP1: A, 2, or 3, OP2: 4 or 8) and it's two bets to you again I think it's a fold. Otherwise I would call down all the way (unless you fill up, then of course you should help cap every street).