droberts 3 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 343070The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History ConverterUTG+2: $13.10MP1: $10.10MP2: $2.00CO: $2.35Hero (BTN): $10.00SB: $3.45BB: $7.65UTG: $2.10UTG+1: $11.45Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A A 3 folds, MP1 raises to $0.40, 1 fold, CO calls $0.40, Hero raises to $1.60, 2 folds, MP1 calls $1.20, 1 foldFlop: ($3.75) J T K (2 players)MP1 checks, Hero bets $2.50, MP1 raises to $6.10also as a note.. hero may seem steamed.. just had Aces cracked AIPF vs Jacks.... 2 hands before this. Link to post Share on other sites
KingJames 11 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Gross... I hate folding, but what does he c/r a 3bet pot that you beat? AK,KQ... So many 2pair/sets/AQ in his range here... so grossI feel like if we call/shove we're just hoping to run into the bottom of his range.I doubt I make the fold, but I think this is a fold. Link to post Share on other sites
Temporary Nuts 1 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 shove Link to post Share on other sites
Sick Boy 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Im pretty sure this is a fold here...its sick but what can you really beat? Link to post Share on other sites
droberts 3 Posted October 28, 2009 Author Share Posted October 28, 2009 Im pretty sure this is a fold here...its sick but what can you really beat? so u would fold here? Link to post Share on other sites
Temporary Nuts 1 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Im pretty sure this is a fold here...its sick but what can you really beat?Say hello to my friend EQUITY Link to post Share on other sites
rrumsey 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 yah im not laying this hand down in .05-.10 call me a lag if yah want Link to post Share on other sites
KingJames 11 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Say hello to my friend EQUITYdroberts, do you not use tracking software/HUD? Is a 4x open "standard" from villain, for the table?TN, what kind of range/equity are you thinking here?Also, does anyone think that the AA<JJ two hands prior is relevant? I'm not saying one way or the other. I generally play multiple tables, so I would hardly notice... just curious about peoples thoughts on that matter... Link to post Share on other sites
Sick Boy 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 so u would fold here?Probably, Link to post Share on other sites
KingJames 11 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Probably,We have teh acez... But do you have any reasoning for "probably folding"? Link to post Share on other sites
Sick Boy 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 We have teh acez... But do you have any reasoning for "probably folding"?Yes. That's a horrible board for aces. Its well connected. Even if the guy who came over the top of the original bettor is some kind of donk wierdo and is raising with a KQ, even in that situation we are not a big favourite (only 63% i believe). And even IF the guy has a flush draw, we are still only a small favourite, not to mention if we call the raise we still have a guy to act behind us who could also have two pair or a straight. More than likely, one of your opponents has flopped two pair here and we are a big underdog (Like 25% chance to win), or we're dead, your oppoent flopped a straight. Its a tough laydown and if Im steaming or running good I probably shove here, but if im playing my optimal game and concentrating on what Im doing, i dont get a hard on over AA and muck it.Just a theory... Link to post Share on other sites
KingJames 11 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Not bad, I'm in the same camp as you. I hate it, but c/r are generally so strong especially in a 3bet pot...Like hero 3bet pre and then bet the flop... he obv likes his hand and villain should have no bluffs in his range...It's just a matter of whether he is value betting AK KQ etc...TN.... explain to me why I suck please!!!!!!11111oneone Link to post Share on other sites
SwolyswoND 1 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Yes. That's a horrible board for aces. Its well connected. Even if the guy who came over the top of the original bettor is some kind of donk wierdo and is raising with a KQ, even in that situation we are not a big favourite (only 63% i believe). And even IF the guy has a flush draw, we are still only a small favourite, not to mention if we call the raise we still have a guy to act behind us who could also have two pair or a straight. More than likely, one of your opponents has flopped two pair here and we are a big underdog (Like 25% chance to win), or we're dead, your oppoent flopped a straight. Its a tough laydown and if Im steaming or running good I probably shove here, but if im playing my optimal game and concentrating on what Im doing, i dont get a hard on over AA and muck it.Just a theory...Except that your whole theory seems to be that were up against more than one opponent, and we're not. It's HU. KQ is a very very very large part of villain's range here, and even if we're up against two pair we're not as big a dog as you think. 25% is certainly not correct (9 outs on turn, 12 on river) Link to post Share on other sites
Temporary Nuts 1 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 not to mention if we call the raise we still have a guy to act behind us who could also have two pair or a straight. More than likely, one of your opponents Wait, we have 2 opponents? We got check-raised and went to the flop heads up. You're reading this wrong and that totally changes the scenario.After losing an AIPF with AA it does loosen up a player's range by a small margin, but not incredibly.A fair range for this guy would be AK, AJ, KQ, QJ, AQ, KJ, JJ, TT, and i really don't see any legit flush draws here since we have the Ah.Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 58,410 games 0.003 secs 19,470,000 games/secBoard: Kh Ts JhDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 56.087% 53.39% 02.70% 31183 1577.50 { AdAh }Hand 1: 43.913% 41.21% 02.70% 24072 1577.50 { JJ-TT, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }Ok, so this is easily profitable because we have the best equity...Now lets tighten up a range a little bit... rule out AJ and QJ, and add in QQ and KKText results appended to pokerstove.txt 49,500 games 0.002 secs 24,750,000 games/secBoard: Kh Ts JhDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 49.838% 47.64% 02.20% 23583 1087.00 { AdAh }Hand 1: 50.162% 47.97% 02.20% 23743 1087.00 { KK-TT, AQs+, KJs+, AQo+, KJo+ }Ok, about an even coinflip so if there's ever money in the pot it's a must push.Now lets reeeeallly tighten up the range and remove AK and KQ.Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 31,680 games 0.002 secs 15,840,000 games/secBoard: Kh Ts JhDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 35.705% 33.90% 01.81% 10739 572.50 { AdAh }Hand 1: 64.295% 62.49% 01.81% 19796 572.50 { KK-TT, AQs, KJs, AQo, KJo }Well here we only have 34% equity... we've invested $4.10 in the pot so far. And it will cost us $5.90 to shove. We're getting roughly $6 to win $14. With 33% equity we break even at $6 to win $12. Clearly it's still a shove. Link to post Share on other sites
KingJames 11 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 TY Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Wait, we have 2 opponents? We got check-raised and went to the flop heads up. You're reading this wrong and that totally changes the scenario.After losing an AIPF with AA it does loosen up a player's range by a small margin, but not incredibly.A fair range for this guy would be AK, AJ, KQ, QJ, AQ, KJ, JJ, TT, and i really don't see any legit flush draws here since we have the Ah.Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 58,410 games 0.003 secs 19,470,000 games/secBoard: Kh Ts JhDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 56.087% 53.39% 02.70% 31183 1577.50 { AdAh }Hand 1: 43.913% 41.21% 02.70% 24072 1577.50 { JJ-TT, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }Ok, so this is easily profitable because we have the best equity...Now lets tighten up a range a little bit... rule out AJ and QJ, and add in QQ and KKText results appended to pokerstove.txt 49,500 games 0.002 secs 24,750,000 games/secBoard: Kh Ts JhDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 49.838% 47.64% 02.20% 23583 1087.00 { AdAh }Hand 1: 50.162% 47.97% 02.20% 23743 1087.00 { KK-TT, AQs+, KJs+, AQo+, KJo+ }Ok, about an even coinflip so if there's ever money in the pot it's a must push.Now lets reeeeallly tighten up the range and remove AK and KQ.Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 31,680 games 0.002 secs 15,840,000 games/secBoard: Kh Ts JhDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 35.705% 33.90% 01.81% 10739 572.50 { AdAh }Hand 1: 64.295% 62.49% 01.81% 19796 572.50 { KK-TT, AQs, KJs, AQo, KJo }Well here we only have 34% equity... we've invested $4.10 in the pot so far. And it will cost us $5.90 to shove. We're getting roughly $6 to win $14. With 33% equity we break even at $6 to win $12. Clearly it's still a shove.This. We have outs vs any hand. ANY hand. And we has aces. And I think we see AK a LOT here. A LOT. Link to post Share on other sites
rrumsey 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 good job temp nuts i had a feeling this was the case but i have my mac at school so i dont have stove. Nicely done! Link to post Share on other sites
Sick Boy 0 Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 good job temp nuts i had a feeling this was the case but i have my mac at school so i dont have stove. Nicely done!QFT.Soz misread the hand. Thought it went bet, raise to hero. Link to post Share on other sites
Mast3rKush 0 Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 It would be me very tough for me to fold aces in such a situation, even with the board being very drawy to str8's and flush. I would be tempted to push & hope he's on some sort of draw.Btw that post by tempnuts on Pokerstove was very insightful, im just starting to use this program & defintley finding that im starting to think on different levels & expanding my game in terms of tying together the maths. Any useful topics around here on pokerstove i should look into? Link to post Share on other sites
DCJ001 0 Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 We have teh acez... But do you have any reasoning for "probably folding"?You only has one pairz... Link to post Share on other sites
kreppsen 0 Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 I love your all that pokerstove stats there TN, good job. What's there to be said, it's a shove, and in the long run this will give us profit. Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 yah im not laying this hand down in .05-.10 call me a lag if yah wantYup... Link to post Share on other sites
viva la cam 0 Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 sucks really bad... he raised you 4 dollars on a .5/.10.. i think your looking at 2 pair or a set... even tho you have outs and it sucks folding here, i think its a fold... he would def raise with AQ with the hearts out there as well..... that shit always happens to me, i pick up Aces, and the bored comes club club club, and i have HD lol Link to post Share on other sites
KingJames 11 Posted November 5, 2009 Share Posted November 5, 2009 Btw that post by tempnuts on Pokerstove was very insightful, im just starting to use this program & defintley finding that im starting to think on different levels & expanding my game in terms of tying together the maths. Any useful topics around here on pokerstove i should look into?HOFsucks really bad... he raised you 4 dollars on a .5/.10.. i think your looking at 2 pair or a set... even tho you have outs and it sucks folding here, i think its a fold... he would def raise with AQ with the hearts out there as well..... that shit always happens to me, i pick up Aces, and the bored comes club club club, and i have HD lol Wait, we have 2 opponents? We got check-raised and went to the flop heads up. You're reading this wrong and that totally changes the scenario.After losing an AIPF with AA it does loosen up a player's range by a small margin, but not incredibly.A fair range for this guy would be AK, AJ, KQ, QJ, AQ, KJ, JJ, TT, and i really don't see any legit flush draws here since we have the Ah.Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 58,410 games 0.003 secs 19,470,000 games/secBoard: Kh Ts JhDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 56.087% 53.39% 02.70% 31183 1577.50 { AdAh }Hand 1: 43.913% 41.21% 02.70% 24072 1577.50 { JJ-TT, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }Ok, so this is easily profitable because we have the best equity...Now lets tighten up a range a little bit... rule out AJ and QJ, and add in QQ and KKText results appended to pokerstove.txt 49,500 games 0.002 secs 24,750,000 games/secBoard: Kh Ts JhDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 49.838% 47.64% 02.20% 23583 1087.00 { AdAh }Hand 1: 50.162% 47.97% 02.20% 23743 1087.00 { KK-TT, AQs+, KJs+, AQo+, KJo+ }Ok, about an even coinflip so if there's ever money in the pot it's a must push.Now lets reeeeallly tighten up the range and remove AK and KQ.Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 31,680 games 0.002 secs 15,840,000 games/secBoard: Kh Ts JhDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 35.705% 33.90% 01.81% 10739 572.50 { AdAh }Hand 1: 64.295% 62.49% 01.81% 19796 572.50 { KK-TT, AQs, KJs, AQo, KJo }Well here we only have 34% equity... we've invested $4.10 in the pot so far. And it will cost us $5.90 to shove. We're getting roughly $6 to win $14. With 33% equity we break even at $6 to win $12. Clearly it's still a shove. Link to post Share on other sites
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