all in or fold question.

[HarryDemetriou 0]

The following discussion came up with a friend and we couldn't agree on the correct play so I'm posting this for others to give their thoughts.Perhaps it should be a Poll Question and if I can work out how to do it I'll try and do just that.Anyway any thoughts on this would be very welcome.Mid way through a no limit tournament and you are a fair way off the money.You are under the gun (first position) and have 1400 in chips.The blinds are 300/600 and the ante is 50 and it is 9 handed at the table which is full of players playing typically for midway through a tournament.You have J9 off suit.What do you do?All In? or Fold? (maybe you just call?) but these are the two options.Comments please.

[dominiksdad 0]

J9o is not a good enough hand to stake your tournament life on.Yes, you are just about to be hit with the big blind which is going to take almost 1/2 of your stack but I'd take my chances on picking up something better next hand.The way I see it is that if your all-in is less than 3xBB you are virtually certain to get at least one caller, probably more so you are going to be a massive dog.Remember you are just as likely to have pocket As next hand as any other two cards

[Smasharoo 0]

Assuming you have no fold equity at all (which I take it is implied), and one of the other stacks will almost certainly call...I think it's a pretty easy push all in, frankly.With any fold equity at all it's clear as day.J9 is a well above average hand and even should you find a better hand after the blinds you are even more likely to get multiple callers (with a stack less than the BB) decreasing your odds of survival.You need to double up while doing so is still worthwhile. I should add there is potentially less value to doubling up on the next hand in the BB because you lose the potential overlay of the folded BB should you pick up a hand in the BB.I struggle to see any real argument for folding here.Calling the BB is of course laughably bad.

[Smasharoo 0]

Remember you are just as likely to have pocket As next hand as any other two cardsIf only that were the case.You're much more likely to pick up two unpaired unsuited cards lower than a J than you are a better hand than J9.

[JaysonWeber 0]

I agree with Smasharoo One hundred percent, you're going to have to make a move while it still means "somthing" now roughly 2.5 times the blind isn't much. But the odds of you getting a better hand the next time around aren't very good, You're far away from the money and your short stacked, You aren't playing for the bubble, You need Chips. I'm going all-in knowing that I've got to win about 3 or 4 of these in a row to be a contender again (By in a row I don't mean consecutive hands!).And... It's offsuit! You can hit TWO Flushes here! Not just one like those gross suited cards... lol

[JimmyWellington 1]

Based on the situation, I would go all in. I try not to get down to that low, I would have tried to "double up or get up" earlier, but of course that is not the scenario.If you fold, on the next hand you will have ~50% of your chips in the pot. Of course there is a chance that you will get a much better hand. On this hand, it would depend on who calls you. There's a small chance that you will pick up the blinds and antes. If you get called by 8s or a lower PP, you are an 11-10 dog, I believe. Of course if someone has 9s or higher, you're in big trouble. I don't know what the chances are that someone has a PP 9s or higher, but I would think the more likely scenario would be that someone does not. Like I said, I'm not sure about this and I could definitely be wrong.You're going to have to get really lucky at this point (either get lucky and draw out on someone, or get lucky and get a very good hand).Also, the J9 has straight possibilities, which makes it better than say, a J3off. EDIT: Obviously the fact that the 9 is higher than a 3, makes it much stronger. /EDIT. Of course you'd rather have them be soooooooted to get the flush possibility, but you have to take what you can get. So like I said, given the scenario, I push all in. I'm not even close to an expert, but that's my reasoning. If my thinking is flawed, please point out where I'm thinking illogically. Thanks!

[Wilderness 0]

I'm going to have to agree and say push here as well. Its obviously not a great hand but you are more likely to pick up a worse hand in the BB so you've got to push and just hope for the best.

[dominiksdad 0]

Remember you are just as likely to have pocket As next hand as any other two cardsIf only that were the case.

It actually is the case - you are just as likely to pick up A A as you are to pick up 7 2 or any other combination of cards. Unless of course you believe the conspiracy theorists who insist that all on-line poker is fixed :wink:

[Smasharoo 0]

It actually is the case - you are just as likely to pick up A Suit: Heart A Suit: Club as you are to pick up 7 Suit: Club 2 Suit: Spade or any other combination of cards.Ah, but that's not what you said, grasshopper.

[dominiksdad 0]

It actually is the case - you are just as likely to pick up A Suit: Heart A Suit: Club as you are to pick up 7 Suit: Club 2 Suit: Spade or any other combination of cards.Ah, but that's not what you said, grasshopper.

Apologies Smash - it's what I meant even if I didn't phrase it quite correctly. And there was intended to be a heavy dose of sarcasm in it as well.Can I change my vote now as well?Reading all the well thought out arguments for pushing I would be inclined to agree with that play now.I visit the forum to gain an insight into poker from more experienced players and hopefully next time I am in a similar situation I will take your advice into account - unlike several others on here who post for advice and then seem to get very upset if you don't tell them how wonderful their play is.Thanks everyone and keep the good advice coming.

[Smasharoo 0]

I'm intrested in Harry or his mate's argument for folding that's compelling enough that one couldn't convince the other that pushing was the best play...

[CoreyBrown 0]

I almost enjoy the call option with the intent on pushing no matter what the flop is. If you push here you will still get called by a variety of hands in later positions and probably most def the BB will call unless he has just TOTAL garbage.You also will probably be playing with live cards that have a decent shot at hitting.I know that you don't really want to go up against more than 1 person in a situation like this, but it would be nice to triple up.Pushing is probably the smart money, but I would probably just call with the intent on pushing on the flop, or calling if someone comes over me.

[Smasharoo 0]

Pushing is probably the smart money, but I would probably just call with the intent on pushing on the flop, or calling if someone comes over me.Well, you could get another shot to double up in the BB I guess if you folded the flop...then again in teh SB if you doubled up. Then as the ante's whittle you away, you'd get even *more* chances!If you call, you're all in. You're not seriously going to fold this on the flop if it's AAA or whatever, are you?

[jogsxyz 0]

Of the three possible choices, limping inmust be the worst. Gives no chance of beinggiven the pot on a walk.All-in. At least this gives us a chance ofdoubling our chip stack. J9o is just barelyabove the medium hand(J7o) for 2-way action.A knowledgable BB will call with any twocards. The pot is giving 2750(1400+600+300+450)for the 800 chip call. That's 3.44 to 1.The BB should only fold when we hold an overpair.Fold. This would virtually forces us to playthe next hand. Folding the BB would leaveus a mere 750 for the SB. At 1350 an orbitour choices are restricted. We only have ashot at 750 in strange chips, while openingall-in UTG gave us a chance at 1350 strange.To survive a few orbits, we need to get lucky.Opening all-in gives us more chances to belucky. Either way, expect to be eliminated.

[Chip_and_a_Chair 0]

Remember you are just as likely to have pocket As next hand as any other two cardsIf only that were the case.You're much more likely to pick up two unpaired unsuited cards lower than a J than you are a better hand than J9.

Timmy is absolutely right. There are 32 cards in the deck equal to or lower than 9; 40 equal to or lower than J. All things being random, you will receive a 9 or worse for your first hole card 61.5 percent of the time, and a J or worse for your second card 78.4 percent of the time. When you factor in the fact that pushing on the next hand from the BB would be roughly equivalent to raising 1.3 times the BB, you don't have to use fancy math to realize that the odds of receiving lower cards on your next hand, coupled with the fact that you will almost certainly get more callers with your less significant raise, means folding would be unprofitable. Some might say getting more callers would sweeten the pot for you in the event that your hand hits. Yes, but your chances of winning the pot decrease with each player who enters it. The fewer callers in this situation, the better. Push the J 9.P.S. Any argument that you're just as likely to get AA as 2 7 in the BB is silly. Once you pick up the first ace, there are only three left in the deck that will give you a pocket pair. Once you pick up a 2, there are still four 7s left. (So it's more like 220:1 versus 165:1). And at any rate, if you're holding out on the hope that you'll get a better hand than J 9 to push with on the very next hand, you may as well call it a crapshoot and throw logic out the window. You may have as much chance to pick up SPECIFICALLY, say, AK as SPECIFICALLY 2 7, but you're far, FAR more likely to pick up any one of the vast number of hands in between.

[NYIsles 0]

With any fold equity at all it's clear as day. Huh? I thought I knew all the lingo. Can you briefly explain what is meant by "fold equity"?Thanks...

[Smasharoo 0]

Can you briefly explain what is meant by "fold equity"?Sure, it's actually really simple.Fold equity is the likelyhood of you winning the pot to a fold, or increasing your chances of winning when someone folds a better hand multiway, when you take a certain action. In this case, if you knew all would fold and you'd win the blinds half the time you'd have 50% fold equity.It's just a way to work with the other situational equities like pot size to arrive at the best decision. Pushing all in with 77 on a flop of K93 probably has substantial fold equity against hands like A9.

[looshle 6]

I understand that you need to make a move soon because you are in the blinds the next hand, but the fact is you still have J9o against 8 other hands which you have no information about. You're going to get called a lot of the time. I would wait till the next hand where I'm in the big blind and hope for a better hand, which is a good possibility. Also, everyone at the table sees that 40% of your stack is in the blind so you are pretty much pot committed. This means no one is going to attack you unless they have a decent enough hand because they are guaranteed to get some action. Everybody hates doubling up the short stack and people who don't have many chips are likely to fold weaker aces because they dont want to play for 1400 chips.

[Smasharoo 0]

I would wait till the next hand where I'm in the big blind and hope for a better hand, which is a good possibility. No it isn't, it's less likely than a worse hand.A lot less.How often do you get two playable hands in a row? Some of the time? Sure. Often?

[dominiksdad 0]

How often do you get two playable hands in a row? Some of the time? Sure. Often?

J9 - a playable hand???that doesn't sound like the smash we all know and love :wink:

[looshle 6]

I would wait till the next hand where I'm in the big blind and hope for a better hand, which is a good possibility. No it isn't, it's less likely than a worse hand.A lot less.How often do you get two playable hands in a row? Some of the time? Sure. Often?

Well, the average starting hand is Q7o, which is obviously ahead of J90 if they were heads up. Just because you have a "playable" hand right now has no bearing on what hand you are going to be dealt next. The deck doesn't have a memory. I understand you have to make a move, and I'm not saying there's a clear line on moving in or folding, I would just rather wait till next hand for the reasons I gave in my first post.

[JimmyWellington 1]

I would wait till the next hand where I'm in the big blind and hope for a better hand, which is a good possibility. No it isn't, it's less likely than a worse hand.A lot less.How often do you get two playable hands in a row? Some of the time? Sure. Often?

Well, the average starting hand is Q7o, which is obviously ahead of J90 if they were heads up. Just because you have a "playable" hand right now has no bearing on what hand you are going to be dealt next. The deck doesn't have a memory. I understand you have to make a move, and I'm not saying there's a clear line on moving in or folding, I would just rather wait till next hand for the reasons I gave in my first post.

If I had to go all in against a random hand, I'd much rather have J9 than Q7.In this case, Q7 would be ahead of J9 heads up before any cards come out, but J9 is a better starting hand.

[wrto4556 0]

all in.The two blinds and two antes will cost you 1,000 of your remaining 1,400 chips. If you don't get a hand better than J9 in the BB you're screwed. It's an easy decision IMO. All in is the only way you will have a chance to come back from here.

[jogsxyz 0]

How often do you get two playable hands in a row? Some of the time? Sure. Often?

Well, the average starting hand is Q7o, ....

Stochastic independence! The chance of the next hand being playable is independent of what we held on this deal.looshle, who said Q7o is the average starting hand for heads-up? I just counted them and concluded that J7s is the median starting hand.

[Chip_and_a_Chair 0]

I, too, would like to know where this "average hand" nonsense comes from. The odds of picking up a particular non-paired hand, i.e. your Q 7 is 165:1 -- the same odds as catching any A K... or 3 9... or 4 J...Why does everyone cite this Q 7 example? Did someone publish a study that ran a bunch of "random" hands and came up with this magic mean? Please explain it to me.