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This is a recollection (as best I can remember) from a hand I played last night.$1/$2 full ring NLVillain (MP): 16/5 over 400 hands, $250Hero (CO): dealt 88, $325Villain open raises to $10.I call. Just us two see the flop.Flop is AQ3 rainbowVillain checks. I lol a little knowing someone who only plays 16% and raises 5% has to c-bet here.I decide to take a stab at 50% of his range (KK,JJ,TT), I fire out 3/4 the pot, he calls.Turn: 7Villain checks, I check behindRiver: 8 (river doesn't bring a 3 suited board)Villain fires $100 into a $53 pot. Hero...?

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Tough spot.I insta call too.Wouldn't mind seeing some math/ranges here though.
range = top 5% of hands = top 8 handsAA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,99,88,AKWe can discount 88.Then widdle down the range due to a smooth call on the flop to... AA,KK,QQ,AKI think that's a fair range on the river.
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I call, but I hate it. He plays this exactly like AA or QQ. I hate facing river overbets in these situations. All I can think we are beating is a very strangely played AQ. In fact, it is probably a -EV play.Given a decent amount of time live I think I fold this. Given 30 seconds online I pay him off.EDIT: AK is possible, but not too likely. KK is just not possible imo.

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To give a little added information. He might have been even less with the PFR than 5%. I just know that AQ wasn't in this dude's range. Super tight. The only reason for the call pre-flop was to snag a set and drag him along with his overpair.My feelings on the turn were "I'm done with this hand," I was pretty sure he had a monster. Normally, people would get excited seeing that river. I actually grunted in dispair even before he bet (but after it was dealt).

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I call, but I hate it. He plays this exactly like AA or QQ. I hate facing river overbets in these situations. All I can think we are beating is a very strangely played AQ. In fact, it is probably a -EV play.Given a decent amount of time live I think I fold this. Given 30 seconds online I pay him off.EDIT: AK is possible, but not too likely. KK is just not possible imo.
See bolded and this hand becomes less of a mystery =P.AK doesn't bet like that on the river, he probably didn't raise pre-flop with AQ nor would he likely bet like that on the river with AQ, KK definitely doesn't bet like that on the river.So we have: AA,QQ,AQ but NOT with equal distribution.AA (42.5%), QQ (42.5%), AQ (15%)Yeah, I'm giving it away... but when you do the analysis of the hand it just screams of a monster.I'm just bummed because this is what defines good players, and I'm good enough to spot these situations and to know what's going on... but I'm not good enough to hit the damn fold button =(. I'm very close to a break through in my game though.
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That river bet is rarely a bluff. If you don't think this guy would have AQ then I think I fold this. He may be going crazy with AK, but it isn't likely. He is far more likely to make the overbet with a set. If he bets $50 I call.

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The more I think about it, the more I'm sold on a fold.To the people saying never fold sets/never be scared of the over set:There are no absolutes in poker. I preach the same thing, but in situations like this, you need to consider his range, and the EV of maing the call. Here it is clearly -EV, so folding a set, is easily doable.- Zach

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The more I think about it, the more I'm sold on a fold.To the people saying never fold sets/never be scared of the over set:There are no absolutes in poker. I preach the same thing, but in situations like this, you need to consider his range, and the EV of maing the call. Here it is clearly -EV, so folding a set, is easily doable.- Zach
Agreed.There's a player in my home game that only re-raises with AA or KK. I raised from the CO with 66, the button called and he re-raised from the SB. The flop was AK6 and he checked.Knowing his range, what's the point in getting excited about a set here?I know this is extreme, but it certainly violates the "never worry about an overset" rule.
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range = top 5% of hands = top 8 handsAA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,99,88,AKWe can discount 88.Then widdle down the range due to a smooth call on the flop to... AA,KK,QQ,AKI think that's a fair range on the river.
AA (42.5%), QQ (42.5%), AQ (15%)
I think you're fabricating a range here a little bit. top 8 hands for a lot of tigther players is going to include AQ over 99. And then you're using this "5% doesn't raise AQ" to justify the 15% of AQ here. Consider that the hand has played exactly like all three of these hands, you have to probably move this to 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. In addition, there's more combinations of AQ, but we'll just ignore that anyway and say it's compensation for a set being a bigger slowplay hand. But then again QQ probably bets into a possible ace???? Maybe we can discount that out of the range a little? If you put it at my range, then you only have pick off a bluff/weirdly played lesser hand 1/100 times to make a call profitable at the river.
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From his perspective, I think he played his hand pretty terribly (I'm assuming he had AA, right?). What hand does his river play work against that is consistent with the rest of the hand other than exactly 88?

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I think you're fabricating a range here a little bit. top 8 hands for a lot of tigther players is going to include AQ over 99. And then you're using this "5% doesn't raise AQ" to justify the 15% of AQ here. Consider that the hand has played exactly like all three of these hands, you have to probably move this to 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. In addition, there's more combinations of AQ, but we'll just ignore that anyway and say it's compensation for a set being a bigger slowplay hand. But then again QQ probably bets into a possible ace???? Maybe we can discount that out of the range a little? If you put it at my range, then you only have pick off a bluff/weirdly played lesser hand 1/100 times to make a call profitable at the river.
I fabricated the range because I almost remember him being in the 3-4% PFR (as I stated above). But at the end of the day, does it matter? If it's equal parts QQ,AA,AQ, that makes us a winner only 1/3 of the time.You do have a great point about QQ though. So even if we make it 40% AA, 40% AQ and 20% QQ, it's still not a profitable call. One thing to keep in mind though, is that I did have position on him. If we are giving credit for him being sophisticated, checking to me to let me bet my ace would also work. In either case, it's not a profitable call.
From his perspective, I think he played his hand pretty terribly (I'm assuming he had AA, right?). What hand does his river play work against that is consistent with the rest of the hand other than exactly 88?
No doubt, he absolutely butchered this hand.
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I fabricated the range because I almost remember him being in the 3-4% PFR (as I stated above). But at the end of the day, does it matter? If it's equal parts QQ,AA,AQ, that makes us a winner only 1/3 of the time.
It made a big difference to me when I thought u were calling 53 into 153. not 100 into 153.I don't pay this overbet off on the flop unless i think player is silly enough to slowplay Ak like this.
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This is a recollection (as best I can remember) from a hand I played last night.$1/$2 full ring NLVillain (MP): 16/5 over 400 hands, $250Hero (CO): dealt 88, $325Villain open raises to $10.I call. Just us two see the flop.Flop is AQ3 rainbowVillain checks. I lol a little knowing someone who only plays 16% and raises 5% has to c-bet here.I decide to take a stab at 50% of his range (KK,JJ,TT), I fire out 3/4 the pot, he calls.Turn: 7Villain checks, I check behindRiver: 8 (river doesn't bring a 3 suited board)Villain fires $100 into a $53 pot. Hero...?
$25/$50 NL tough laydown,$1/$2 NL easy call.
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LOL
:bubble_cool:Edit:1/2 online is going to play a lot more str8forward than 50/100. People can't bluff a river like this because they're unsure of whether they're up against a good player capable of folding or some donk tourney luckbox taking a shot from 25nl. So 1/2 is usually going to be more straightforward in that respect which makes it so much more likely that a tightie like this isn't bluffing with this overbet often.50/100, I can't think of anyone that plays that high that's demonstrates these types of stats, but there's a bunch of hyperlags at that level that bet this with air.
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:bubble_cool:Edit:1/2 online is going to play a lot more str8forward than 50/100. People can't bluff a river like this because they're unsure of whether they're up against a good player capable of folding or some donk tourney luckbox taking a shot from 25nl. So 1/2 is usually going to be more straightforward in that respect which makes it so much more likely that a tightie like this isn't bluffing with this overbet often.50/100, I can't think of anyone that plays that high that's demonstrates these types of stats, but there's a bunch of hyperlags at that level that bet this with air.
Because of how little the money is I can see that 1/2 NL players won't overbet this river with air, however at 1/2 his assessment of you calling a river overbet after checking behind on the turn may be weak. AK and AQ certainly have to be accounted for here (and maybe a few more hands hero beats.) People are less likely to try and pull off these "sick value bets" in the higher limits unless it actually is a sick value bet.
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