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This is the thread for any polling or electoral college info. Not that polls are important, since they are often wrong.I think it's funny that people are so blind to pollsters. Before the conventions they almost ALWAYS use registered voters to get their data. After the conventions they almost always use LIKELY voters which always gives Republicans a huge bump... since the majority of democrats are too lazy to vote. (At least that counteracts all the dead people that voted democrat in the last, and all future, elections.)http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/elec...9-07-poll_N.htmthe convention didn't have anything to do with it.... It's the fact that this poll is among LIKELY voters.http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-D...head-48-45.aspx

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This is the thread for any polling or electoral college info.I think it's funny that people are so blind to pollsters. Before the conventions they almost ALWAYS use registered voters to get their data. After the conventions they almost always use LIKELY voters which always gives Republicans a huge bump... since the majority of democrats are too lazy to vote. (At least that counteracts all the dead people that voted democrat in the last, and all future, elections.)http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/elec...9-07-poll_N.htmthe convention didn't have anything to do with it.... It's the fact that this poll is among LIKELY voters.http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-D...head-48-45.aspx
I think its a combination of the two. Likely and registered are probably closer this year than traditionally because Obama has energized the Dem side and may actually deliver some of the youth vote that usually didappears on election day. Palin has energized the conservative side and should have similar impact.
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I think its a combination of the two. Likely and registered are probably closer this year than traditionally because Obama has energized the Dem side and may actually deliver some of the youth vote that usually didappears on election day. Palin has energized the conservative side and should have similar impact.
they always say that. Kids don't vote... plain and simple.
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This is the thread for any polling or electoral college info.I think it's funny that people are so blind to pollsters. Before the conventions they almost ALWAYS use registered voters to get their data. After the conventions they almost always use LIKELY voters which always gives Republicans a huge bump... since the majority of democrats are too lazy to vote. (At least that counteracts all the dead people that voted democrat in the last, and all future, elections.)http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/elec...9-07-poll_N.htmthe convention didn't have anything to do with it.... It's the fact that this poll is among LIKELY voters.http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-D...head-48-45.aspx
I'm always wondering how they determine likely voters. Do they go with lists of voters that voted last election? If so then they do leave out a fairly substantial body of voters that just turned 18 and might just want to vote in their first election, or any voters that are energized with this election over the last one. Also do they choose to poll those with land lines only? If so then they miss again a large body of voters that only have cell phones. It's a growing number and may be why some of the polls were skewed so badly last election.
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This is the thread for any polling or electoral college info.I think it's funny that people are so blind to pollsters. Before the conventions they almost ALWAYS use registered voters to get their data. After the conventions they almost always use LIKELY voters which always gives Republicans a huge bump... since the majority of democrats are too lazy to vote. (At least that counteracts all the dead people that voted democrat in the last, and all future, elections.)http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/elec...9-07-poll_N.htmthe convention didn't have anything to do with it.... It's the fact that this poll is among LIKELY voters.http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-D...head-48-45.aspx
This post is a 99 out of 100 on the unintentional comedy scale......right down to the profound misunderstanding of the word majority.
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I'm always wondering how they determine likely voters. Do they go with lists of voters that voted last election? If so then they do leave out a fairly substantial body of voters that just turned 18 and might just want to vote in their first election, or any voters that are energized with this election over the last one. Also do they choose to poll those with land lines only? If so then they miss again a large body of voters that only have cell phones. It's a growing number and may be why some of the polls were skewed so badly last election.
they ask the people that they call if they are likely to vote.
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oops
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.Among the findings:• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.• McCain's acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain's speech "excellent" compared with 35% for Obama.
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This post is a 99 out of 100 on the unintentional comedy scale......right down to the profound misunderstanding of the word majority.
ok. how many people vote in an election. 100,000,000? If we're lucky? How many people live in the US that are over voting age? 220,000,000? Of the 120,000,000 people not voting, how many are democrats... or at least have liberal leanings? I would guess more than the 45,000,000 that voted in the election.... a lot more than 45.
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I'm always wondering how they determine likely voters. Do they go with lists of voters that voted last election? If so then they do leave out a fairly substantial body of voters that just turned 18 and might just want to vote in their first election, or any voters that are energized with this election over the last one. Also do they choose to poll those with land lines only? If so then they miss again a large body of voters that only have cell phones. It's a growing number and may be why some of the polls were skewed so badly last election.
This is a great point. How many people these days don't have land lines. This number is growing and could skew any poll taken by any organization.
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This is a great point. How many people these days don't have land lines. This number is growing and could skew any poll taken by any organization.
How could it skew anything? People with landlines think differently than people with cell phones? A sample is still a sample.
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This is a great point. How many people these days don't have land lines. This number is growing and could skew any poll taken by any organization.
Why would they miss cell phones? Dont they use random dialers like the campain fund raisers do?
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How could it skew anything? People with landlines think differently than people with cell phones? A sample is still a sample.
Maybe skew wasn't the right word but they are missing a growing number of people who no longer use land lines. I know quite a few people who have given up their land lines and now only use cell phones. And I think that most younger adults (18-30 or so) don't bother with land lines anyway so the sample won't be as inclusive as it was before everyone owned a cell phone.
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ok. how many people vote in an election. 100,000,000? If we're lucky? How many people live in the US that are over voting age? 220,000,000? Of the 120,000,000 people not voting, how many are democrats... or at least have liberal leanings? I would guess more than the 45,000,000 that voted in the election.
you should talk to Copernicus who is positive that a majority of this country is conservative. And most of those people who do not vote are not even registered so they are not anything and have decided to take themselves out of the political process. Lumping Democrats in with them is a bit over the top. Not to mention you could use the same logic to suggest that a majority of Republicans (or conservative leaners) dont vote. It's just a silly line that ruins what might have been a decent post. (The unproven and way out there suggestion that Dems use dead people to vote hurts too.)
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ok. how many people vote in an election. 100,000,000? If we're lucky? How many people live in the US that are over voting age? 220,000,000? Of the 120,000,000 people not voting, how many are democrats... or at least have liberal leanings? I would guess more than the 45,000,000 that voted in the election.... a lot more than 45.
Your understanding of majority is fine, but it also applies to Republicans, no?
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Your understanding of majority is fine, but it also applies to Republicans, no?
the way he is framing the question now makes much more sense....but you found the same flaw I did.
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Why would they miss cell phones? Dont they use random dialers like the campain fund raisers do?
Not sure but I have never been called on my cell phone for any polls or by any telemarketers but often get called on my land line for these things.
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Your understanding of majority is fine, but it also applies to Republicans, no?
Did I say anything about the entire 120,000,000 non-voters being democrats? I think it's probably more than half, but certainly not all. There are a TON of lazy rednecks.
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(The unproven and way out there suggestion that Dems use dead people to vote hurts too.)
It has been proven wrt to Kennedy's votes in Illinois, a critical state. And there's another Daley in power, pushing the Obama train from behind.
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you should talk to Copernicus who is positive that a majority of this country is conservative. And most of those people who do not vote are not even registered so they are not anything and have decided to take themselves out of the political process. Lumping Democrats in with them is a bit over the top. Not to mention you could use the same logic to suggest that a majority of Republicans (or conservative leaners) dont vote. It's just a silly line that ruins what might have been a decent post. (The unproven and way out there suggestion that Dems use dead people to vote hurts too.)
I believe that the FAR majority of likely voters are republicans... and it's not close.Also, the dead people voting was widespread in several states, including mine. In my state, they were overwhelmingly in liberal polling sites. I don't however think this is a widespread infection in the party, but that there are just more liberal people willing to do things like that... for whatever reason. For instance, I wouldn't think, for a second, that normal dems like MK, Cane, DN, Checky, etc etc would even think about cheating in an election... but I do think that there are people that will, and that the far majority are members of the democratic party.Why don't republicans run around the DNC screaming? I simply don't get it.
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I believe that the FAR majority of likely voters are republicans... and it's not close.Also, the dead people voting was widespread in several states, including mine. In my state, they were overwhelmingly in liberal polling sites. I don't however think this is a widespread infection in the party, but that there are just more liberal people willing to do things like that... for whatever reason. For instance, I wouldn't think, for a second, that normal dems like MK, Cane, DN, Checky, etc etc would even think about cheating in an election... but I do think that their are people that will, and the far majority are members of the democratic party.Why don't republicans run around the DNC screaming? I simply don't get it.
If the far majority of likely voters are Republican then why have the last few elections been so close?For every alleged Dem voting scandal there is a GOP one about voter restriction, intimidation or whatever. I am not sure how much credibility I give to any of them. If anything they are cancelling each other out. I think that your assumption that the people more likely to cheat are Dems is hilarious. You have to be smart to cheat and all the smart, cunning people are clearly running the GOP campaigns.I have no answer to the last question. Every time one of those idiots interrupts the GOP convention my brain hurts a lot. I dont get it either.
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If the far majority of likely voters are Republican then why have the last few elections been so close?For every alleged Dem voting scandal there is a GOP one about voter restriction, intimidation or whatever. I am not sure how much credibility I give to any of them. If anything they are cancelling each other out. I think that your assumption that the people more likely to cheat are Dems is hilarious. You have to be smart to cheat and all the smart, cunning people are clearly running the GOP campaigns.I have no answer to the last question. Every time one of those idiots interrupts the GOP convention my brain hurts a lot. I dont get it either.
Imagine the average voter. HALF of the voters are dumber than him.As for intimidation and restriction... I think it's stupid. The main problem in many of these voting areas is that we have outdated machines and not enough of them in heavily populated areas. You should NEVER have to wait more than 10 minutes to vote. But since I have no way to prove if it does or doesn't happen... we'll have to agree that it's a push.Why the crap can't we have a standard voting machine across the country? WHY THE HELL IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT NOT GETTING INVOLVED IN SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE FEDERAL... all the while having their nose in things that SHOULDN'T be federal... like abortion, gay marriage, etc etc etc.
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Why would they miss cell phones? Dont they use random dialers like the campain fund raisers do?
Do pollsters call cell phones?No. It is illegal for them to do so. This fact means that people who have only a cell phone and no land line will be systematically excluded from polls. Since these people tend to be mostly young people, the pollsters intentionally overweight the 18-30 year olds to compensate for this effect, but as more people drop their landlines, it is becoming a serious issue. Here is a report on the issue and below is a graph taken from the report.cell-phone-only.jpgPolling FAQ
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Has anyone seen the electoral college map lately? It looks pretty difficult for McCain to win.
Yeah, 270 needed to win and Obama has over 260 only including states where he is more than marginally ahead. But it is likely to get closer.
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Has anyone seen the electoral college map lately? It looks pretty difficult for McCain to win.
Look at again after the state polls > the conventions come in. BHO will have a 20-25 EV lead. there are several "barely Dem" states that will turn barely red.
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