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quiz question #8



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It's day one of a WPT event and you have your chips up to about 11,100 from it's original 10,000. The blinds are still 25-50 and you look down at Q :D Q :) and make it 150 to go. The button calls as does the big blind. The flop comes: J :D 9 :) 2 :) and the big blind checks to you. You bet 400 and the button calls. The big blind now check raises you to 1900, 1500 more. You call and the button folds. The turn card comes the K :D and your opponent bets 5500. You now have a flush draw as well as a straight draw. Based on what you know of the player you are quite sure that you are up against two pair, trips, A :club: J, or possibly a very small flush. The King doesn't scare you at all, but you are stil pretty sure that your opponent has the best hand. What would you do?

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damn. I wanted to be the first to respond. oh well. THere is no need to muck around here as there is just way too much that can beat you here. if someone has a small flush you have a redraw for the queen flush, but why. If they have an A flush draw then your against 12 outs, which I don't like. If you are up against a set you have a redraw for the flush or top set. Notice though that two out of the three options have you behind and the other isn't all that desireable as they can hit an Ace or a heart to win(though your Queen of hearts counterfeits one of his outs). Its too early to push with this hand. Muck it and go on to the next one, and if he's bluffing you then luck to him

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damn. I wanted to be the first to respond. oh well. THere is no need to muck around here as there is just way too much that can beat you here. if someone has a small flush you have a redraw for the queen flush, but why. If they have an A flush draw then your against 12 outs, which I don't like. If you are up against a set you have a redraw for the flush or top set. Notice though that two out of the three options have you behind and the other isn't all that desireable as they can hit an Ace or a heart to win(though your Queen of hearts counterfeits one of his outs). Its too early to push with this hand. Muck it and go on to the next one, and if he's bluffing you then luck to him
:dance:
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It is still to early to commit this many chips. Seems simple, especially if you are almost certain that you know you are behind. You only have 6 cards for the flush, and another four for the straight. Tournament play, at least i believe, is not AS MUCH about odds as ring games are. The situation, chip stack, overall position, table image, tournament stage should all be taken into account. If you are sitting at a table with Daniel you know it. You know he is one of the best in the world. Most people would not try to bluff with an amount of chips such as described in the original post. I vote to fold.

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im trying to win this thing right? and i had the bankroll to legitimately buy in? i didnt have to sell a kidney or something? and if he does have me beat let it be known u can not bluff me, ill call with anything lol

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Am I the only one that would probably fold on the flop here, seeing as how he bet larger than pot size on a check raise?
Yup.Anyway, I'm with everyone else. I've gotta fold this here.
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Am I the only one that would probably fold on the flop here, seeing as how he bet larger than pot size on a check raise?
It depends. I might need some sort of read on the player. Daniel doesn't give any in this question, so I dunno. I imagine some players will also fire a big shell on a bluff at times in hopes of bullying a pro (who they know is capable of making "great" laydowns). Calling on the flop isn't too bad I don't think. But I doubt that the guy would have the guts to fire another huge shell at the pot on a bluff, so I give him credit for a better hand than mine on the turn and I let it go then for sure.
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the pot is offering you about 1.8 to 1it's early in the tournament and you have 9050 chips left and it will cost you over half of this to call (5500 more)your read is telling you that you're behind.if he has 2 pair (say, Jacks and 9's), you have max 17 outsif he has trips (say trip jacks) you have max 14 outsif he has a small flush you have max 7 outsnone of these warrant a call early in the tourney for over half your chips only getting 1.8 to 1.there's only 1 hand you think he could have that you're actually ahead of and that's the Ah Jx and he'll still win this battle versus you 1 in 4 times. if you could say without a doubt that this is what he had than it's definitely a call; but you're not sure and it's early in the tournament.cut your losses and fold. just tell him the chips you're sending over are on loan.

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hmm... its defiantely a teaser but dosent seem that hard as i see it i mean you have alot of hands that are better than you at that point..so i am folding with not having info on player chip stack history and various other variables..but i mean if you think you are beat then why play i mean you cant call for value here i mean it would cost to much just to see a hand for value and if you are beat lay it down and move on to the next hand...but my question is why such a minimal bet???i mean 150 in to that pot leaves you to guess on what he has wouldnt a larger bet eliminate some of those possibiites... I mean with you only betting 3x the big blind you get 2 callers...so i would fold as said but i play pocket pairs more agressive than 3x big blind...but that is IMO..

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i'm definitely going against the grain, but i push all-in.1. if he has AJ with the ace of hearts, or any nut flush draw besides AK and AA, your pair of queens is good.2. if he has a set, you have a strong draw for higher set, straight, or flush. 14 outs with two cards to come.3. this seems like an ideal flop to attempt a bluff-check-raise.4. you might make him fold if he's on a bluff or uncomfortable with his set/draw, but you're also comfortable with a call.5. i realize that it's early, but daniel's not one to play scared money. if he busts, fine, but this is an ideal situation to double up early and accumulate chips.6. this hand came up in reno, it's in daniel's blog. he called and folded when the river came no help, and i think he feels that he should have pushed.7. it sets a nice aggressive + fearless table image for you if you win or make him fold, especially if you show him the hand after you fold.all-in.aseemp.s. this very much reminds me of the NL cash game hand i posted, though pot odds are more relevant in my hand whereas tournament strategy is more relevant here. can't wait to see daniel's answer to this quiz, i think it'll be applicable to my post as well.

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i think a big reason behind my choice of all-in is that daniel is a new-school player, not an old-school player.old-school players thrive on survival thinking. they want to live past day 1 and day 2.daniel has stated publicly before that he doesn't believe in this. he prefers to be in many action pots in day 1 and day 2. he argues that all the bad players drop out on these days, and those chips have got to go somewhere--he prefers to be the one collecting all that dead money.granted, the BB in this hand was gavin griffin, but daniel's not one to fold a possible winner because he's scared of elimination...anyone agree?aseem

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old-school players thrive on survival thinking. they want to live past day 1 and day 2.daniel has stated publicly before that he doesn't believe in this. he prefers to be in many action pots in day 1 and day 2. he argues that all the bad players drop out on these days, and those chips have got to go somewhere--he prefers to be the one collecting all that dead money.granted, the BB in this hand was gavin griffin, but daniel's not one to fold a possible winner because he's scared of elimination...anyone agree?aseem
i agree with what your saying, and i like the idea of making day 1 'thrive' instead of 'survive' like mosts, but the way i see it is shouldve re-raised post flop, with the over pair to about 3000, then see what mr. check raise does, but since that isnt an option you have to fold now, here's what you are thinking1) he as 2 pair/trips, YOU ARE LOSING, and you have 11 outs (2 Q's, 9 :heart:'s ) 22%, 1 in 5 chance of hitting (give or take)2) he has A :D Jx YOU ARE WINNING, with him having a 13 outs (3 A's, 8:heart:'s, 2 J's) which is 26%, 1 in 4 chance of him hitting 3) he has a smaller flush, YOU ARE LOSING, with only 7 outs, 14%, 1 in 7 chance of hitting why risk it ? either he has you beat BIG 78-22 if he has 2 pair or trips, OR even worse 86-14 if he has a smaller flush... you are basically hoping he holds A :) Jx, which still gives him better chances to hit then any scenario you have. i say take your 9k (shoulda re-raised post flop) and use that. a call puts your stack at 3050, which basically pot commits you regardless of the river, so you should definitely either push it here OR fold. i say fold, give him the 10k pot (man that sucks) and just get them back when you are a favorite in a hand. can we talk about how bad a play it was to call with QQ post flop?
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hey karasz, good post.i'm sorry, i made a mistake. i gave myself outs for the straight also (since the turn was an offsuit K), but i forgot to change "two cards coming" to "one card coming".so on the turn, you actually have 14 outs (according to daniel's journal... 9 hearts, 2 queens, 3 non-heart tens), so you're at about 30%. you would prefer pot odds of 2.30-to-1.the pot is 475 pre-flop, then 4675 on the flop, to which your opponent overbets 5500, so now the pot is 10175, and you're getting 1.85-to-1 to call. with these pot odds, you want to win at least 35% of the time.daniel mentions that you are up against two pair, trips, AJ (ace of hearts), or a very small flush.against two pair, you have actually 14+3 outs (those extra 3 outs can counterfeit his two pair, giving you a better queens up), so you're 37% to win.against trips, you have 14 outs like normal.against AJ, you are ahead.against a small flush, you are down to 7 outs, 15%. this is a bad situation.so i'm not too sure what to do. it appears that folding is correct since two situations are marginally profitable while two others are not.however, one thought comes to mind... how about using the king as a scare card? if you push here, he has to worry you just hit your set of kings. this might make a lower set fold.interesting...aseem

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i wont lie, i completely forgot about the straight possibility. so you have a better chance in every hand, except against the flush. good idea on using the K as a scare card, the problem is though that you have 9050 left, with 5500 bet so the only thing you can do is push. i will say this though, the more i think about it, and talk about it... i think pushing it might be the move.although i still stand by the fact that it should have been re-raised post-flop. can i change my vote? pushing it here is the better choice.

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Guest XXEddie

....I just have some stupid hunch the guy has AJ with the A:heart: knowing this, even though you only have roughly 1/3-1/4 of what you started with, calling gives you a shot to get away hereIf he does have AJ with a A:heart: he wont fold to an allin on the turn, or probably the river, calling gives you a shot to get away....man im just setting myself up to get bashed for this one*sigh*

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I like pushing all in here.He check raises the flop. Alright that is nice and all. Obviously he has hit some kind of TPTK/Good draw.The river comes a K of clubs. What would make a person make a pot sized bet in this situation? If they have trips they would be scared of a flush, scared of a straight maybe with that king an even higher set. If they have A :D J, they actually somewhat improved in the hand. They now have the nut flush draw, a straight draw, and middle pair with top kicker.If they have the baby flush the bet could be the perfect bet getting you to draw to a straight or make trips now crap.So, I would have to say if I were sitting there and I was a pro and the money wouldn't break me or I would be upset about losing a 10k buyin, I would push in that spot, and make him call off his chips to me. If he had the nuts then so be it, but I wouldn't be upset with my move. It's either a fold or a push all in. Calling in that spot is probably the worst thing to do.

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