tapeworm, on Saturday, December 23rd, 2006, 6:43 PM, said:
You say it was obvious, but I found it interesting. My first instinct was to raise, but I see your point that given the stack sizes you are risking too much and not getting much more info. It seems you are about 50-50 at this point. Against the full range you described, I think you are 54%: http://www.pokerlama...!...!b~Jc_7d_4h
But, when I took out 55-22(which I think is less likely for an EP raise) you are 48.9%: http://www.pokerlama...!...!b~Jc_7d_4h
Since, you know he will not fire a second bullet, calling seems better, but with bigger stacks, I think I raise. My question though is with these stacks, does your analysys change at all if he sometimes fires a second bullet? Like, lets say he will bluff a blank turn, about 50% of the time. Would you still smooth call? Is there a characteristic of your opponent that would make you raise here, even with your limited stack?Analysis by anyone would help, thanks.
Lets say you are exactly 50/50 right now to make the math easier, and we'll take out 22-55 like you said. Given the range of hands you put him on, if he isnt already ahead hes got 6 outs to the AQ and AK (16 possible holdings) and 2 outs to the 88, 77, 66 (18 possible holdings) so on average he is going to actually move ahead of you 4/45 of the time...call it 10% of the times he is behind. He's already ahead of you with AJ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT which is 42 hands...roughly 50% of the time.So he will fire a second bullet 50% of the time that hes already ahead, 5% of the time that he is behind and moves ahead, and 22.5% of the time that he is behind, stays behind, and runs a bluff. So you have 22.5/77.5 chance of still being ahead if he fires a second bullet, which is about 30%...throw in your set chances and say you are ahead 33% of the time that he fires a second bullet, and you are ahead and stay ahead 22.5% of the time..ie your winning chances actually improve slightly moving from the flop to the turn. Thats probably enough for a borderline call.