DanielNegreanu 141 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 It's the very first hand of the WSOP main event and there are 12,000 players. At your table are Phil Ivey, Gus Hansen, and six other players you've never seen before. Everyone folds to the small blind. When he peeks at his cards, you see that he has the Q J . For some bizarre reason, he decides to go all in??? You are in the big blind and have the A K . The question is simple: call or fold? Link to post Share on other sites
semaj550 0 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Simple for me: I'm not gambling my tourney early on as a 3:2 favourite when 20,000 chips isn't going to get me any deeper into the 12,000 player field than 10,000. Link to post Share on other sites
myenemy 0 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Simple for me: I'm not gambling my tourney early on as a 3:2 favourite when 20,000 chips isn't going to get me any deeper into the 12,000 player field than 10,000.While I realize you want to avoid being all in, aren't you going to HAVE to get lucky sometimes, and push your edges? Furthermore, how do you figure 20K wont get you further than 10K? You have to start somewhere. This is a pretty tough decision though. I suppose it comes down to assessing the value of having the extra 10K at that point in the tourney to your final results. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 I think that often this should be a fairly standard call. While 20K chips won't get me that much closer to 120 million or so, it does put me in a better position to deal with the 2 super aggressive players who will likely control the whole table.The best players talk about avoiding coin flips early on, but you're a 3-2 favorite here and since everyone folded to the blinds, you can reasonably assume that it's more likely that the folded hands would include Qs and Js instead of As and Ks so his outs are more likely to be folded than yours.If you win this hand, then Hansen and Ivey have to fear going broke when they play a hand with you. They also see that you're willing to make what looks like a loose call (calling your stack in the first level with AK is DEFINITELY loose) so you can use that image to your advantage.It's a marginal situation but when do you start taking risks? You KNOW you're ahead. I think that you have to call and take chances. If you lose, then it just wasn't your year to win the WSOP... Link to post Share on other sites
semaj550 0 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 While I realize you want to avoid being all in, aren't you going to HAVE to get lucky sometimes, and push your edges? Furthermore, how do you figure 20K wont get you further than 10K? You have to start somewhere. This is a pretty tough decision though. I suppose it comes down to assessing the value of having the extra 10K at that point in the tourney to your final results.It's early and you're deep stacked, you are likely to be presented with future opportunities to get your money in as a better favorite. I try to advoid 3:2 or 50:50 situations when I'm deep stacked and early in the tournament.Having Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen at my table would make me consider a call but I would rather try to get my money in against one of the other 6 in a better spot.It's not dissimilar to having AA in the BB on the first hand and having all 9 players go all in ahead of you. If you call you are likely done on the first hand but mathemathcially you're getting the odds to call (if you only consider simple pot odds).Part of playing a tournament is looking at the big picture and I believe it is best to reduce your risk by giving up a small amount of equity on this hand. Link to post Share on other sites
Moneyball16 0 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 If its me I call. If we are talking about DN then I would probably fold. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 The real question is what time is the tee time that is making Phil Ivey push this hard with QJ hearts? Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 If its me I call. If we are talking about DN then I would probably fold.I think that it's important to assess your abilities. While I figure to play well, Hansen and Ivey would definitely crush me. Also, the other 6 players, while you might not know them, might all be internet or local professionals, who might also be better than you (less the tool who cold pushed 10K with QJh to win your 50 chips).I think for anyone but some of the best pros, this is a clear call. Link to post Share on other sites
DaRockets 0 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 There is no way I would ever call off all of my chips in the very first hand of the wsop ME knowing it is virtually a race. 3 to 2 is not good enough for me. I understand you have to gamble to win in big tournys however there is just no way i would make the call there!DOS Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Maybe DN wouldn't call here, but if I'm at a table with Ivey and hanson, I'm going to need all the chips I can get. Call no brainer Link to post Share on other sites
Kestral123 0 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 I can't see folding this. That's a pretty significant positive expected value. I suppose you can make an argument that a highly skilled pro can wait for a better opportunity, but I'm not buying it. If I'm a clear favorite, as here, and particularly for average donks like me, I don't see how you pass up an edge like that. Link to post Share on other sites
burgerman 0 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 For a donk like me, the opportunity to watch and learn from Hansen and Ivey is what is most important. In order to progress in the tournament, you will need to win dozens of races. And you'll have lots of time to be in them. While the 3-2 favorite is substantial, there is a 40% chance you will exit the game and not get to test your skills against what are two of the game's toughest players. Learning from them for 3-4 hours would be invaluable to my future development. In poker, after you've got the math it's all about experience. I would fold to ensure I had this experience against Ivey and Hansen.Best --Burgerman Link to post Share on other sites
Head_Trauma 0 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 This is such an easy and obvious fold. I wouldn't make this call if I knew the first 4 board cards were 2479 with no hearts. It's risk vs. reward. You start the ME with an M over 100, why risk the whole event just to get to 200? You have a maniac on your right who you will be able to exploit for as long as you two are at the same table. Play small ball. Having 2 pros at your table does not change the scenario. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 This is such an easy and obvious fold. I wouldn't make this call if I knew the first 4 board cards were 2479 with no hearts. It's risk vs. reward. You start the ME with an M over 100, why risk the whole event just to get to 200? You have a maniac on your right who you will be able to exploit for as long as you two are at the same table. Play small ball. Having 2 pros at your table does not change the scenario.You're not going to get your money in as a 6.3-1 favorite with one card to come? By that logic, you're folding the nut flush on the turn on an unpaired board becuase you KNOW your opponent has a set. After all, if he could hit one of his 10 outs.Why even bother playing poker? Link to post Share on other sites
checkymcfold 0 Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 if anything i've heard about the ME is true, i don't care about ivey and hansen because the rest of those idiots are dead money. i fold.seriously, though, this decision hinges more on an assessment of one's abilities relative to the field than anything else. 20k vs 10k at the first level is a pretty small difference, even if it's going to allow you to push around your table (which is unlikely considering the two sharks across from you).or put better, if you felt good enough about yourself to actually sit at the table in the ME, you should feel good enough about them to fold a 3:2 shot on the first hand of the thing. Link to post Share on other sites
eandreas 0 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 You're leading, it's gambling, grab your balls and call it. The other way to look at is, if the guy is that stupid to push queen jack that early, that person is a chicken fried dumbass and you should wait for a better spot. Depends on your mood, really, on any given day. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 It's the very first hand of the WSOP main event and there are 12,000 players. At your table are Phil Ivey, Gus Hansen, and six other players you've never seen before. Everyone folds to the small blind. When he peeks at his cards, you see that he has the Q J . For some bizarre reason, he decides to go all in??? You are in the big blind and have the A K . The question is simple: call or fold?I haven't decided yet, but I know I'd be more inclined to call if Ivey is the SB. He's scares the **** out of me. Link to post Share on other sites
gilbertology 0 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Call, and then go out drinking the rest of the day win or lose.A good reason for folding is that you'll be at the TV table, so you want some TV time laying down your hands to Gus and Phil's bluffs. Link to post Share on other sites
General Forum 0 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 i would callwith gus and ivey at my table im gonna need that 20,000u know your ahead so go for it Link to post Share on other sites
greatwhite 0 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 I would fold without queens, kings, or aces. The risk vs the reward just isn't there. Plus I know I'll be able to outplay Ivey and Gus for their chips anyways. Link to post Share on other sites
nutzbuster 7 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 It's the very first hand of the WSOP main event and there are 12,000 players. At your table are Phil Ivey, Gus Hansen, and six other players you've never seen before. Everyone folds to the small blind. When he peeks at his cards, you see that he has the Q J . For some bizarre reason, he decides to go all in??? You are in the big blind and have the A K . The question is simple: call or fold?Personally, I would Fold. I have learned the hard way CALLING an all in with A K. Moving with this hand is great. Calling with it sucks!It's too early to gamble the whole tourney here.But that's me.Commence the brow beating... B) Link to post Share on other sites
Head_Trauma 0 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 You're not going to get your money in as a 6.3-1 favorite with one card to come? By that logic, you're folding the nut flush on the turn on an unpaired board becuase you KNOW your opponent has a set. After all, if he could hit one of his 10 outs.Why even bother playing poker?Poker is a situational game... I was giving an example of a specific situation. No, I would not risk my WSOP ME on the very first hand even as a 6.3-1 favorite. And why bother playing poker? To win, and in order to win any money in the WSOP you have to survive many days and avoid risking all your chips during those first few days. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 You're not going to get your money in as a 6.3-1 favorite with one card to come? By that logic, you're folding the nut flush on the turn on an unpaired board becuase you KNOW your opponent has a set. After all, if he could hit one of his 10 outs.Why even bother playing poker?QFTPoker is a situational game... I was giving an example of a specific situation. No, I would not risk my WSOP ME on the very first hand even as a 6.3-1 favorite. And why bother playing poker? To win, and in order to win any money in the WSOP you have to survive many days and avoid risking all your chips during those first few days.Uh, at some point chances are that you're going to have to take some risks eventually. If a 6.3-1 edge isn't good enough, you'd really be better off not playing. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Poker is a situational game... I was giving an example of a specific situation. No, I would not risk my WSOP ME on the very first hand even as a 6.3-1 favorite. And why bother playing poker? To win, and in order to win any money in the WSOP you have to survive many days and avoid risking all your chips during those first few days.Weak tight has just been redefined. Link to post Share on other sites
shpaget 0 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 From Daniel Negreanu's Cardplayer article "Go Big or Go Home"emphasis added:"I do find it a little strange when people say that you shouldn't play a marginally profitable situation early in a tournament, but it's OK to do so late in a tournament. I think they are missing out on several key points, but I'd like to touch on just one: By doubling up early in an event, it enables you to accumulate even more chips, as a big stack demands respect and is often given free rein to pick up chips at will by aggressively attacking the blinds. I answered a hypothetical question a while back that went something like this: Let's say you are in the WSOP main event, and on the very first hand dealt, you have A-K offsuit in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind, who exposes his cards to you and goes all in with Q-J suited. Would you call?You should - seriously. You would win the pot 60 percent of the time, meaning that six out of 10 times, you'd start the tournament with twice as many chips, while four times, you'd be out early and could enjoy the rest of the afternoon! That is too good an offer to pass up. You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation, but 60 percent is just too much equity for any mortal to give up.Unless you believe yourself to be some kind of a poker god and think you can routinely fold in positive expected value situations because you can "outplay" everybody else without taking any risks, you should be willing to take some risks regardless of the stage of the tournament."In light of the fact that two of the best in the world are at the table, I now know that I can't "outplay" EVERYBODY else at the table...call is a no-brainer here.There may be some tournaments (like a home tournament with 20 people who've never played the game before) where you can easily fold this, but this situation is not one of them. Personally, I would Fold. I have learned the hard way CALLING an all in with A K. Moving with this hand is great. Calling with it sucks!It's too early to gamble the whole tourney here.But that's me.Commence the brow beating... B)Umm......if you don't understand the fundamental difference in this example you shouldn't be playing poker.You are calling with AK because you KNOW what your opponent has, and you KNOW he doesn't have a pair....that is totally different that calling with AK when you don't know what the raiser has.This is such an easy and obvious fold. I wouldn't make this call if I knew the first 4 board cards were 2479 with no hearts. It's risk vs. reward. You start the ME with an M over 100, why risk the whole event just to get to 200? You have a maniac on your right who you will be able to exploit for as long as you two are at the same table. Play small ball. Having 2 pros at your table does not change the scenario.The reward of have double everyone's stack is immeasurable...it lets you bully...it lets you survive some bad beats...it opens all your options.By your logic you would, in the exact same scenario, also have to fold two red aces.You are actually 86% to win in your scenario, and only 81% with AhAd preflop.To fold in either scenario is the worst idea since New Coke....it's just plain dumb...like room-temperature IQ dumb....please....where do you play poker? Link to post Share on other sites
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