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Value In A River Bet?


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#1 Snamuh

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 02:48 PM

Villain seemed pretty solid. 25/17/2.86. The pot sized flop and turn bets looked very strong. Is there value in a river bet here? I can't think that he planned on C/Ring a monster here seeing as there weren't any draws to miss. This is almost always another Q right?Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Button ($151.70)SB ($91.85)BB ($142.85)UTG ($100)Hero ($195.15)CO ($100)Preflop: Hero is MP with QPosted Image, JPosted Image. 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.5, 2 folds, SB calls $3, BB calls $2.50.Flop: ($10.50) QPosted Image, QPosted Image, 4Posted Image (3 players)SB checks, BB bets $10.5, Hero calls $10.50, SB folds.Turn: ($31.50) 9Posted Image (2 players)BB bets $31.5, Hero calls $31.50.River: ($94.50) 3Posted Image (2 players)BB checks, Hero?
Snamuh raises to $76.75, and is all in
BigKamp: yyou lose
BigKamp has 15 seconds left to act
BigKamp calls $24.50, and is all in
Seat 1: BigKamp (small blind) mucked [Ad Ac] - a full house, Aces full of Kings
Seat 2: Snamuh (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and won ($102.50) with four of a kind, Kings
Snamuh: you lose

#2 Acid_Knight

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 02:53 PM

Two things. 1. You're kidding right?2. Nice value bet of $42. I'd have bet more.

#3 Acid_Knight

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 02:54 PM

View PostSnamuh, on Tuesday, November 6th, 2007, 2:48 PM, said:

This is almost always another Q right?
I would think this is almost NEVER another Q the way he played it on the flop and turn.

#4 mtdesmoines

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 02:56 PM

View PostSnamuh, on Tuesday, November 6th, 2007, 2:48 PM, said:

BB ($142.85) Hero ($195.15)CO ($100)River: ($94.50) 3Posted Image (2 players)BB checks, Hero?
Bet $80-$100.
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#5 nomad_monad

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 03:06 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Tuesday, November 6th, 2007, 2:54 PM, said:

I would think this is almost NEVER another Q the way he played it on the flop and turn.
With an AF of 2.9, why can't a solid-ish villain be fastplaying Qx against the preflop raiser, especially on the turn after the flop call? sure it's a dry board, but that adds deception value to him donkbetting the flop. once hero calls, villain shouldn't stop betting since hero didn't raise, so there's a decent chance hero will just check behind the turn.As for the hand, I'd bet more on the river as well. Hands like TT & 88 might call a 1/2 pot, but they fold a lot too. You want to maximize against the times he has Qx and is willing to pay-off close to pot. When he checks that river, the only hand I would ever even think to worry about would be KQ, and only from a villain that plays sort of scared, a description that doesn't seem to fit this one.EDIT - Betting near pot, you'll also get called way more often than not by a donked up AA/KK.

#6 Sheiky

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 03:52 PM

Not much help, but you're 65% against a random queen.I don't see why you wouldn't value bet this.Would a better queen check the river after you called two pot sized bets but didn't raise? NoWould a worse queen/pair call a bet? Easily.Let me guess, you bet $84.75?Good bet.

#7 NoBBiR

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 04:26 PM

Actually he bet 42 and the guy snap called with Q10 or KQ? I don't understand what the guy has unless its KQ or Q10.
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#8 nomad_monad

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 04:33 PM

View PostNoBBiR, on Tuesday, November 6th, 2007, 4:26 PM, said:

Actually he bet 42 and the guy snap called with Q10 or KQ? I don't understand what the guy has unless its KQ or Q10.
Q8 (probably sooted) is in his rangealso, villain might have had a mini-blow-up and called getting 3-1 on the river with JJ/TT.

#9 ScreenDreams

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 04:42 PM

The thing that I have noticed in my play that I have been consciously working on.Is getting Max value of the prem. hands that I get/flops that I hit. (because in NL one doesn't play too mny big pots and when a player does he/she should get max value out of it to increase ones BB/100)As Played I would bet 3/4 on the pot on river. From what I've learned is that if villain is going to call you or fold it don't matter if you bet less than pot or 3/4 even up to a pot bet. villain has already made their decision.Now get value on it!

#10 Snamuh

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 07:40 PM

View PostNoBBiR, on Tuesday, November 6th, 2007, 7:26 PM, said:

Actually he bet 42 and the guy snap called with Q10 or KQ? I don't understand what the guy has unless its KQ or Q10.
I have to figure it's AQ-QT. I can't see him throwing two pot sized bets and checking the river with anything else.
Snamuh raises to $76.75, and is all in
BigKamp: yyou lose
BigKamp has 15 seconds left to act
BigKamp calls $24.50, and is all in
Seat 1: BigKamp (small blind) mucked [Ad Ac] - a full house, Aces full of Kings
Seat 2: Snamuh (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and won ($102.50) with four of a kind, Kings
Snamuh: you lose

#11 Snamuh

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 07:42 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Tuesday, November 6th, 2007, 5:54 PM, said:

I would think this is almost NEVER another Q the way he played it on the flop and turn.
So what else does someone donk 2 PSB's with on a non drawy board? Name some hands. He's not doing this with 99/TT/JJ/KK/AA. There's no flush draw. A lot of villains fastplay their big hands. It's called getting money into the pot.
Snamuh raises to $76.75, and is all in
BigKamp: yyou lose
BigKamp has 15 seconds left to act
BigKamp calls $24.50, and is all in
Seat 1: BigKamp (small blind) mucked [Ad Ac] - a full house, Aces full of Kings
Seat 2: Snamuh (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and won ($102.50) with four of a kind, Kings
Snamuh: you lose

#12 Temporary Nuts

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 07:54 PM

Eh, he's solid and represented real strength. Not too many Queen combos that you beat, and aggro pp's probably fold to any worthwhile river bet.Any queen could certainly take a shot at a CRAI on the river here because it looks so weak... I really doubt his line plan is c-c, which is all you can get value out of.
QUOTE (NoBBiR @ Monday, August 11th, 2008, 7:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
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