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Valueshove Tptk On River?


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#1 NoSup4U

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Posted 05 November 2007 - 05:46 PM

So villian and I have some history at this table. He's a 30/24 lagtard who is a loser in my db. I find him to be kind of a crappy regular, but i wouldn't be surprised if he's a winner overall. Previous hand of note about 20 mins ago, I check called him down for stacks when he raised K9s, I 3bet A8s, he called, and flop was A99. Someone at the time commented that I was his donkey.So on to this hand. I tried to play it the same. I think he calls with any K, I'm not sure if he calls with a Q, but my gut says there is a good chance. Shove or call river?Full Tilt PokerNo Limit Holdem Ring gameBlinds: $2/$45 playersConverterStack sizes:UTG: $255.20CO: $1144.80Button: $143.15SB: $223.60NoSup4U: $505.40Pre-flop: (5 players) NoSup4U is BB with :D :D UTG folds, CO raises to $14, Button folds, SB calls, NoSup4U raises to $68, CO calls, SB folds.Flop: :) :club: :D ($150, 2 players)NoSup4U checks, CO checks.Turn: :) ($150, 2 players)NoSup4U checks, CO bets $84, NoSup4U calls.River: :D ($318, 2 players)NoSup4U checks, CO bets $225Again, I took this line because its the exact line I took our previous hand where he stacked me, so I thought there was a good chance he would both bluff off a lot, or value bet a lot that I have beat, so I know its a weird line. Mostly I want to know what everyone thinks about a river shove. I debated for a while.Mark

#2 terradawg

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Posted 05 November 2007 - 05:56 PM

I just call here but I'm not anywhere near on your level so take it fwiw. I am scared of KQ mainly and slightly worried about 56 suited. I don't shove because I don't see much value in it unless he has KJ and will call. So, you shoved and he called with KJ?Edit: just reread it. as played I will add AQ to his range. I just call because I think he folds to a shove.
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#3 Dictius

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Posted 05 November 2007 - 06:07 PM

The fact he is calling 3bets preflop with K9 is significant, he could have a weak K or Q.He might call all in with a weaker K because shoving is only like $130 more into about $540, I don't think we can count on him calling with a Q though.I think shoving is ok because it's giving him good odds to call so he will call with weaker holdings more often.

#4 ice4804

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Posted 05 November 2007 - 06:33 PM

View Postterradawg, on Monday, November 5th, 2007, 8:56 PM, said:

I just call here but I'm not anywhere near on your level so take it fwiw. I am scared of KQ mainly and slightly worried about 56 suited. I don't shove because I don't see much value in it unless he has KJ and will call. So, you shoved and he called with KJ?Edit: just reread it. as played I will add AQ to his range. I just call because I think he folds to a shove.
This really should never be a reason for just calling as opposed to raising. If he folds to your shove, you still win the same amount as if you called, so if you think you are ahead, it really doesn't matter if he instamucks... at least you gave yourself the shot to take more off of him.If you aren't sure where you're at and that he's only calling a shove with something that has you beat, then that would be a good reason to just call. obv.

#5 NoBBiR

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Posted 05 November 2007 - 06:35 PM

I think I'd be calling. You're really probably not getting him to call you all in with any hands you beat (unless he really thinks your completely retarded). The rest is fine, you've allowed him to put his money in if he is beat and save money if you're beat. Shoving changes your old line to getting aggressive, where the last time you simply called him down. I think he'd smell something fishy unless he has 2 Pair or better.
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#6 NoSup4U

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Posted 05 November 2007 - 07:24 PM

View Postice4804, on Monday, November 5th, 2007, 7:33 PM, said:

This really should never be a reason for just calling as opposed to raising. If he folds to your shove, you still win the same amount as if you called, so if you think you are ahead, it really doesn't matter if he instamucks... at least you gave yourself the shot to take more off of him.If you aren't sure where you're at and that he's only calling a shove with something that has you beat, then that would be a good reason to just call. obv.
I think what terradawg was saying is what I bolded in your post. You can never be SURE of where you are at, but if its likely that you're ahead, but he isn't calling with worse, then its best to just call.Mark

#7 Acid_Knight

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Posted 05 November 2007 - 07:36 PM

I think this is probably really close. It's totally up to you on how weak of a hand you think he'll call with. I'm probably just calling here because if you do raise, he will come to the conclusion that you either had a monster or a missed draw. Calling is prob best because there are more combos that beat you than will pay you off

#8 Dictius

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Posted 05 November 2007 - 08:11 PM

If we shove villain is getting ~5.6:1 to call, does anyone think that changes his calling range to make this play profitable?

#9 Royal_Tour

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Posted 05 November 2007 - 08:59 PM

i think the way its been played villain might put you on AQ JJ-99 and is making a bet he think will win the hand on the river.I have trouble putting him on a hand that would value bet 225 after you have shown nothing but weakness the entire hand.i mean, you could be playing top set this way until the river, but why check the river with a set? If you're him, this is an easy steal with the correct bet.its a quick call for me, i dont raise. just call.



#10 NoSup4U

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Posted 05 November 2007 - 10:35 PM

View PostRoyal_Tour, on Monday, November 5th, 2007, 9:59 PM, said:

i think the way its been played villain might put you on AQ JJ-99 and is making a bet he think will win the hand on the river.I have trouble putting him on a hand that would value bet 225 after you have shown nothing but weakness the entire hand.i mean, you could be playing top set this way until the river, but why check the river with a set? If you're him, this is an easy steal with the correct bet.its a quick call for me, i dont raise. just call.
yeah for sure I'm calling given our history and how I played the hand. Just wondering what the consensus is on a raise here.Mark

#11 whiterice714

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 12:17 AM

shoving just makes it more expensive when you're beat IMO
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#12 mtdesmoines

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 06:05 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Monday, November 5th, 2007, 7:36 PM, said:

I think this is probably really close. It's totally up to you on how weak of a hand you think he'll call with. I'm probably just calling here because if you do raise, he will come to the conclusion that you either had a monster or a missed draw. Calling is prob best because there are more combos that beat you than will pay you off
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#13 Acid_Knight

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 07:37 AM

View PostNoSup4U, on Monday, November 5th, 2007, 10:35 PM, said:

yeah for sure I'm calling given our history and how I played the hand. Just wondering what the consensus is on a raise here.Mark
I just looked at stack sizes for the first time. Since it's not much more to him, he's probably calling with anything he's got. That being said, I still probably just call. I dunno, you were at the table and had a better feel for things. In a vaccuum even with your info in the OP, I think this is a call, but with more history I like the shovel.

#14 zimmer4141

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 10:11 AM

This is a paperthin shove if you do make it, I think that it's tough to justify a shove here because I just don't see him stacking off with <KJ often here.I'd just call because I just don't see much value in shoving.
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#15 NoSup4U

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 03:32 PM

Normally I'd just call here, I just felt like this is one of those times he'd pay me off with most anything. I timebanked it, really wanting to ship it in, but ended up just calling. He showed KTo, so immediately I felt like I lost value there. Just kinda wanted to see if everyone would think I should have shoved given that he can't really fold any K imo. Good to see most people conflicted also.Mark

#16 DonkSlayer

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 03:50 PM

Since we didn't get a chance to c/c the flop, I also like leading the turn (hopefully he calls) and c/c the river (hopefully he bets).I dunno, villain didn't bet the flop so I don't really know how it is that this hand is similar to your previous example.
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#17 mikeysong

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Posted 07 November 2007 - 02:15 PM

markI think a cr AI here is really good. worse hands do call here. The fd missed and mark's line looks pretty damn fishy.We're realistically afraid of a set, KQ, and really a hand like 56s. The range of hands that he has here given line is pretty damn wide and I would think any K decent kicker would call here. If he had a set, or top two, or even a retard hand like k5, don't you think he would bet the flop?as the hand is played, I'm afraid most of 56s and given that villain suspects me of tilting, I think a cr AI on the riv is sexy

#18 krup24

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Posted 07 November 2007 - 02:54 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Tuesday, November 6th, 2007, 10:37 AM, said:

I just looked at stack sizes for the first time. Since it's not much more to him, he's probably calling with anything he's got. That being said, I still probably just call. I dunno, you were at the table and had a better feel for things. In a vaccuum even with your info in the OP, I think this is a call, but with more history I like the shovel.
we only have $125 left and our hand is sooooooo :ph34r:this can easily be any Q, K or air from the villian as well as hands that beat us including setsi shove this based on our history with villian, our disguisinig of our hand, and our stack size
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#19 No_Neck

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Posted 07 November 2007 - 03:25 PM

View Postkrup24, on Wednesday, November 7th, 2007, 5:54 PM, said:

we only have $125 left and our hand is sooooooo :ph34r:this can easily be any Q, K or air from the villian as well as hands that beat us including setsi shove this based on our history with villian, our disguisinig of our hand, and our stack size
easy to say after you see the results. :club:

#20 krup24

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Posted 07 November 2007 - 03:56 PM

View PostNo_Neck, on Wednesday, November 7th, 2007, 6:25 PM, said:

easy to say after you see the results. :club:
lol i guess so although i stopped reading at AKs post
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