cwik, on Sunday, November 4th, 2007, 1:54 AM, said:
I usually check behind here too. But I think I have been giving up a little too much value on turns and rivers. My aggressive numbers on 4th and 5th street are 2.22 and 1.57 respectively, I think I would like to raise these about half a point each or so. Donno if this is the spot for it or not, but it the most recent hand that just came up that I had to think about river value. I understand we shouldn't purposely try to play to numbers, which is why we are looking at spots, like this.As for this hand individually, I am still leaning a bit more to betting. First lets look at hands that beat us: flush, boat, 9x, overpair, AJ, KJ. I really think it would be strange for any of those hands to check the river except a J, or maybe an over pair which is extremely unlikely due to preflop action, AJ would also be semi unlikely but plausible for the same reason. IMO it really only leaves KJ, and anything else as a super rareity.On the other hand this could also be JT-J2, which all call 90% of the time. Thats 8 hands we beat in his range, against 1 that we don't. I suppose I am not couning all the strange lines with a monster he could have, however I really think that is counter acted by all the times he looks us up with medium pairs or A4/A3.Anther nice thing about this particular hand is the villain will almost never c/r here without a hand and in the cases he does we don't even have a tough decision to let it go.I think I and a lot of others pass on this spot which is giving up a likely positive EV situation because we want to play it safe.
wtf, capitalize and bet it for value. You could fold to a river bet here but you can't check when he checks, especially given the fact that you said he will not c/r bluff here.And pf is a definite definite raise if you like money.