Posted 16 November 2005 - 02:02 PM
I think you need to be betting here.The raisers flop bet is most likely a continuation bet...in all likelihood, with that board, he has become extremely nervous and suspicous that you called his bet.From villain's perspective, he's probably scared shitless that you called pf with AJ.From MP, he could have a lot of holdings, more than the AK, KQ, AJ that people are limiting him to.hands like 88, 99, TT are all possibilities...Ax suited...AQ, AT.I doubt he leads the flop with a Jack.I doubt he checks the river with a King or Jack...he wouldn't want to lose a bet, and to check he'd have to be dead certain you'd bet at this pot.I don't think you're behind here...he's probably got a pocket pair too, and may even have the other 7's.When you called his flop bet he put you on a pocket pair, a Jack, or two overs, like AK, KQ, etc...in other words, after the turn, villain thinks he's beat.I think you gotta push here - some people (and with good reason) believe a big bet looks suspicious and will get called - yes, that does happen...in my experience, what happens more often is a guy will auto-call if he knows he won't be eliminated...it's a security blanket...take that security blanket away and make him make a decision for all his chips.Mathematically, less than 10% of the time you're beat. So 10% of the time you lose 1700. So, to win the extra 975, you need him to fold 20% of the times you are not behind. I think this is possible....when you factor practicality over probability, I think, practically, you are beat less than 1% of the time.