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A resident forum Nazi and I disagree as to whether the turn is a 3-bet or a call. His argument is that I am often behind to a straight here, and a calldown is correct. The coordination is too ugly to 3-bet into.My argument is that I am playing 2/4 on OnGame, where players are often badly-tricky, especially players who cold-call UTG raises. I think he usually raises the flop with a 9 (whether its 99, A9 or other crap), and that he often raises the turn without holding a 9, and its a good value 3-bet.Pre-flop: (10 players) Awesome-O is UTG+1 with [Tc] [Th] UTG folds, Awesome-O raises, 4 folds, CO calls, 3 folds.Flop: [8d] [Td] [7s] (5.5SB, 2 players)Awesome-O bets, CO calls.Turn: [6c] (3.75BB, 2 players)Awesome-O bets, CO raises, Awesome-O 3-bets,I guess the main question is whether I am ahead on the turn often enough to 3-bet.Other considerations are how often it gets capped when he does/doesn't hold a 9, etc etc.feel free to suggest a plan for a pairing/non-raising and/or diamond/non-diamond river

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I am always 3betting here.There are so many hands that he can be raising with that do not include the 9.The alternative of calling the turn and checking the river is sickingly passive, in my opinion.And no, my hand will never be folded, even if he caps the turn.--CM

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no comment.what do you think, malkin-boy?
<<<< Jordan Staal.Anyways, I 3-bet here a lot. It's hard to put him on a range here. Tough to say he flopped a straight. J9, 69? A9, or T9 is the only thing I can think of unless he's super loose, as those are all pretty lose as it is.The only thing is though, if he has air, is he just going to fold, and are we losing value from river bluffs? Or is he the type of player to call down excessively?Against most donks, I 3-bet. If capped, I pair the board on the river and jam, if he just calls, I value bet any river.
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OP has been edited (at the bottom). there were some vague reads, but i'm not sure what i knew/didn't know before this hand, so for argument's sake, there were none.and zachary - i have armstrong and malone on my fantasy team (and letang). please kindly ask them to remove their heads from their collective butts.

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OP has been edited (at the bottom). there were some vague reads, but i'm not sure what i knew/didn't know before this hand, so for argument's sake, there were none.and zachary - i have armstrong and malone on my fantasy team (and letang). please kindly ask them to remove their heads from their collective butts.
If it's FCHL or a keeper league, then Letang is good, otherwise drop him. Armie will pull it together, he just needs to get one to go in.Malone, on the other hand, was playing quite well, as I have him on my Yahoo team, but he's out for a few more weeks, at least. He's good for 20 goals, anyways.
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If it's FCHL or a keeper league, then Letang is good, otherwise drop him. Armie will pull it together, he just needs to get one to go in.Malone, on the other hand, was playing quite well, as I have him on my Yahoo team, but he's out for a few more weeks, at least. He's good for 20 goals, anyways.
yeah, its FCHL. thanks for the good news!
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Anyways, I 3-bet here a lot. It's hard to put him on a range here. Tough to say he flopped a straight. J9, 69? A9, or T9 is the only thing I can think of unless he's super loose, as those are all pretty lose as it is.
do you really think that we are ahead here 75% of the time to three bet, cause I sure don't, especially w/no real reads on players. Other then a outright bluff, what is raising us on this turn since the 6 came that would make us want to three bet against an Unknown player
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do you really think that we are ahead here 75% of the time to three bet, cause I sure don't, especially w/no real reads on players. Other then a outright bluff, what is raising us on this turn since the 6 came that would make us want to three bet against an Unknown player
75% is not the correct ratio here. also, since he can expect us not to have a 9, he doesn't need to be on an outright bluff to raise there.correct me if i'm wrong, but i think 75% assumes that- we always get capped when we're behind (or are ahead, but lose on the river)- he never caps when we're ahead (or are behind, but win on the river)if that is correct, than the correct ratio of how often we need to be ahead is much less than 75%.
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do you really think that we are ahead here 75% of the time to three bet, cause I sure don't, especially w/no real reads on players. Other then a outright bluff, what is raising us on this turn since the 6 came that would make us want to three bet against an Unknown player
One thing that I never really learned was the ratios that we had to be good enough to 3-bet, or whatever.Can anyone confirm or prove this is the right #? (Not that I don't trust you, but dannyg disagreed, so I'd like confirmation either way)I have a really hard time with a range here.I think he has 77, 88 more than he has 9x. I forgot about 99, that could almost definitely be in his range, but hands like A9, J9, T9, etc, those are a stretch, unless he is pretty loose to cold call an EP raise.It really goes back to reads, I suppose. Vs a loose player, I'd probably be more inclined NOT to 3-bet, however, against a smart, thinking player, I'd probably 3-bet all day as 99 is the only hand that beats us.- Zach
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It really goes back to reads, I suppose. Vs a loose player, I'd probably be more inclined NOT to 3-bet, however, against a smart, thinking player, I'd probably 3-bet all day as 99 is the only hand that beats us.- Zach
A9d? At this level I wouldn't be surprised to see J9 or T9 or something ridiculous like that. However, there are too many hands like AKd or JQd or AJd that would probably be semi bluffing here. You need to 3 bet to get value when they miss. Since they won't be calling the river UI, I think there is more value to a raise to just call down here. And even if you are behind you have lots of outs.
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75% is not the correct ratio here. also, since he can expect us not to have a 9, he doesn't need to be on an outright bluff to raise there.correct me if i'm wrong, but i think 75% assumes that- we always get capped when we're behind (or are ahead, but lose on the river)- he never caps when we're ahead (or are behind, but win on the river)if that is correct, than the correct ratio of how often we need to be ahead is much less than 75%.
:club:
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Using those percentages are misleading unless you're at the river. And the figure in those situations is 67%, not 75%. There are way too many conditional issues in a hand like this.If you're ahead, he's drawing nearly dead. If you're behind, you're drawing quite live.If you're behind and you just call, you tend to win more on the river when the board pairs than if you 3bet the turn and it pairs.He sometimes caps a worse hand.He sometimes doesnt cap a better hand.If he has a worse hand, he sometimes checks behind on the river.He never checks behind on the river with a better hand.You could go on forever.Whether this is a 3bet depends a ton on how he plays draws on the flop. A lot of people (myself included) will raise the flop with any 9 here 100% of the time. And if you're playing against me and i misclick by cold calling preflop for some reason, then you're best off 3betting. But against others it could be a call, and check/fold the river if the board doesnt pair. Ive check/folded top set on a less scary board after being raised on the turn by a player earlier today. If anyone plays on absolute and knows who inchworm is, you should understand. If you have no reads, just go by what you think of the typical person on the site you play.

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I think 3 betting is a spew to be honest. I think a few of you guys are overestimating how often people (even idiots) raise on that board without the straight. I'm just calling the raise, and when the board pairs on the river, I'm probably going to checkraise. I'm also calling UI on the river as well. It will SOMETIMES be a move or a worse made hand.

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Whether this is a 3bet depends a ton on how he plays draws on the flop.
This and what his preflop cc means are the points with the most relevance.If you have good reads on these it should be blatantly obvious as to whether he has a nine or notFor an unknown if you limit him to suited connectors, pairs and suited Aces as a middle ground you have66,77,88,JJ,56,67,78, JT: 21 reasonable combos you are ahead of vsA9, 99, 89 & 9T: 14 Combos you are behind.You're ahead 60% of the time, however you have redraws when you are behind and there are hands that will cap/donk that you are ahead of that are drawing very slim.We can rule out TAGS as they won't cc and would raise the flop in position.Against an unknown or LAG 3 bet. A fish or TP call down.
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Against an unknown or LAG 3 bet. A fish or TP call down.
I once read that if you flop and set and lose but you don't lose a lot of $ you played your hand wrong. I am three betting here against most opponents and leading the river if my opponent does not cap the turn.
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I once read that if you flop and set and lose but you don't lose a lot of $ you played your hand wrong. I am three betting here against most opponents and leading the river if my opponent does not cap the turn.
lol, one statement can't cover every possible way a hand can play out. If you flop TT on a board of TJQK7 of the same suit, I'm not losing a TON of money.
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if that is correct, than the correct ratio of how often we need to be ahead is much less than 75%.
We should 3-bet here if and only if we think we're ahead of more than about 50% of villain's hands, not counting his stone bluffs (for example, if we're ahead 55% of the time, and we outdraw him 22% of the remaining 45%, then we are 66% to win the hand (assuming that villain rarely has a hand such as a flush draw)).I think this boils down to two questions- would he usually cold-call preflop with anything besides 99 that contains a 9, and would he usually raise the flop with a 9 in his hand? If the answer to the first question is yes, and the answer to the second question is no (basically, if villain is a known loose-passive player), then I would just call. Otherwise, I would 3-bet.Against an unknown, I'm figuring that he's probably not cold-calling preflop with anything that beats me right now except for perhaps 99, so I'm 3-betting.
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We should 3-bet here if and only if we think we're ahead of more than about 50% of villain's hands, not counting his stone bluffs (for example, if we're ahead 55% of the time, and we outdraw him 22% of the remaining 45%, then we are 66% to win the hand (assuming that villain rarely has a hand such as a flush draw)).
Our opponent will suckout more than 1% of the time therefore your math is flawed.
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Our opponent will suckout more than 1% of the time therefore your math is flawed.
If villain rarely has a flush draw, as I stated in my post, then my math is approximately fine. If villain has a legit hand, he either has one out (if he has a lower set), six outs (if he has JJ), or no outs. If we are ahead the majority of the time, then villain will have, on average, one out or less. If villain has one out on average when he is ahead, he will only suckout about 1% of the time in total if we are ahead more often than not.(When we're behind, we almost always have 3 outs to split the pot, and when villain is behind, he has 4 outs to split the pot, so if we think we're a slight favorite at the moment, then this is pretty much a wash.)If villain is aggressive enough that he's fairly likely to play a flush draw this way, then it's not close enough for the math to matter; we'll be ahead the vast majority of the time and we should 3-bet.I stand by my argument- if we think we're ahead roughly 55% of the time or more, we should 3-bet (except in extreme cases; such as if we're up against an opponent who often raise/folds the turn, and who usually will follow up a turn bluff with a river bluff).
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