Degenerate Gambling

[Dubey 1,035]

meant more as a game theory question.

 

Assuming both QBs are equal, Should I take the higher variance correlation play given that I have the weaker team?

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

if the proj are pretty much equal, and you are a clear dog overall, I would go with Smith.

I would def go with Smith if you had just Kelce/Maclin, but since you have both, all 3 makes it a little worrisome. I like having the QB-WR or QB-TE combo in a game where Im a dog, but I never like having all 3. Esp Qb, WR, RB....

[Dubey 1,035]

Well if AJ Green suits up this week, he is in and Maclin is out. Alternatively I could go with Allen Robinson instead of Maclin but I'm pretty much done with A Rob.

 

Titans pass D is pretty atrocious, and I kinda like the idea that I only need 1 thing to really go right (Alex Smith lights up the titans D), and there's a pretty good chance 2 other lineup spots will follow with a great game. which would give me a pretty good chance to pull off the upset.

 

 

Starting lineups of our teams, fwiw:

 

My Team:

 

QB: Alex Smith

WR: Demaryious Thomas

WR: Jeremy Maclin

RB: Jay Ajayi

RB: James White (waiver claim in for Kenneth Farrow who could go here)

TE: Travis Kelce

W/R/T: Sammy Watkins

K: Kai Forbath

D: Atlanta vs SF

 

Bench options: Allen RObinson, Phillip Rivers, Corey Coleman, AJ Green

 

 

His team:

QB: Carson palmer / Mariota

WR: TY Hilton

WR: Brandon Marshall

RB: Carlos Hyde

RB: Lamar Miller

TE: Antonio Gates

WRT: Jordan Mathews

K; Vinatierri

DEF: Seattle vs. LA

 

0.5 PPR

[Untilted 158]

Will Rivers have Melvin Gordon? Have a healthy Melvin Gordon?

W/O Gordon it might help Rivers even though Gordon is a good receiver

 

All things being equal, upside is with Rivers IMO buttttttt

 

If Kelce and Maclin don't have a good game, you are toast anyway so I would roll the dice with all 3 from KC

[mrdannyg 274]

Can you make pickups? If you are a huge dog, I think it'd be worthwhile to even switch out players with a lower expectation or increase variance (with correlated results).

 

Otherwise, ceteris paribus, I would say that increasin variance as any kind of a dog is beneficial, but that you might want to look at game scores closely, as real variance doesn't always follow who you think it might in football, in my very limited experience

[Babying 613]

My roty football pool is not going good. I have Rawls and I am going against Seattle D and Seattle kicker (too lazy to spell out his name)

[Babying 613]

My roty football pool is not going good. I have Rawls and I am going against Seattle D and Seattle kicker (too lazy to spell out his name)

 

OMG I am losing yards

[Babying 613]

When Sev has a lock. It's $$$$$$$

[Dubey 1,035]

Lost 2 out of 3 of my fantasy semi-finals. Only made the championship game in FCFL.

 

Ended up getting off Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin at the last minute because of the extreme cold weather in KC. Went with Phillip rivers and Dontrelle Inman instead. cost me about 4 points but I lost by 50 anyway.

 

Lost with my really stacked team somehow. Put up 135, which is probably a 99th percentile score in that league (It's zero PPR and no yardage bonuses), but the guy I was playing had by far his best score of the season and put up 145. I think his previous high was 120.

 

 

Me and Arp face off next week for the FCFL championship. Kinda need a win to salvage my fantasy football season.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Me and Arp face off next week for the FCFL championship. Kinda need a win to salvage my fantasy football season.

 

I'm really looking forward to this, except for the fact that I will hardly be able to watch since most of the games are on the day of Christmas Eve, and we're hosting that night. But Ill try my best to prep ahead of time and get away to follow some of it. Should be a great matchup between us, I may have had my monster game last week, not sure I can go back to back with pts like that.

 

How does the NFL get away with making their players play on Christmas Eve anyway, thats just brutal. I genuinely feel bad for these guys.

[Zach6668 513]

 

 

I'm really looking forward to this, except for the fact that I will hardly be able to watch since most of the games are on the day of Christmas Eve, and we're hosting that night. But Ill try my best to prep ahead of time and get away to follow some of it. Should be a great matchup between us, I may have had my monster game last week, not sure I can go back to back with pts like that.

 

How does the NFL get away with making their players play on Christmas Eve anyway, thats just brutal. I genuinely feel bad for these guys.

 

They aren't humans. They are revenue generating assets for NFL owners.

[iBeaver 409]

I made it to the consolation final. Pretty stoked yo.

[Dubey 1,035]

I think the NBA is worse actually. They have a bunch of games on chirstmas day every year.

 

The NFL is only doing it this year because Christmas falls on a weekend, and I don't think they can avoid having games on Christmas unless they went with 16 games on Boxing day, which would be just as bad or worse for the players, with the way practice schedules work.

[Untilted 158]

I'm really looking forward to this, except for the fact that I will hardly be able to watch since most of the games are on the day of Christmas Eve, and we're hosting that night. But Ill try my best to prep ahead of time and get away to follow some of it. Should be a great matchup between us, I may have had my monster game last week, not sure I can go back to back with pts like that.

 

How does the NFL get away with making their players play on Christmas Eve anyway, thats just brutal. I genuinely feel bad for these guys.

 

Not sure what else they can do. They won't play day games on a Friday. That doesn't make sense when a lot of people won't be able to watch or go to the games

Xmas day is a worse option obviously. Maybe they could have all the Saturday games at 1pm

 

NBA has been having games on Xmas day for years as well

[Untilted 158]

I think the NBA is worse actually. They have a bunch of games on chirstmas day every year.

 

The NFL is only doing it this year because Christmas falls on a weekend, and I don't think they can avoid having games on Christmas unless they went with 16 games on Boxing day, which would be just as bad or worse for the players, with the way practice schedules work.

 

You beat me to this type of post by 15 seconds

[Dubey 1,035]

I've also been actively avoiding mentioning to my wife that there are 13 games on Christmas Eve as I know it would be a firm NOPE. I'm just hoping that it will slide under the radar and her dad will want to watch the games and it will be too late for her to say no

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Big diff (for me) between NBA scheduling a few games on Xmas day, and NFL scheduling all games on Xmas eve, except 3.

I think the NFL could have:

 

1) postponed NFL for 1 weekend. Have week 16 next week. Whats the harm?

 

2) if desperate, played all their games on Thursday night. If 2 teams can play Thurs, why not all? Everyone in same boat!

[Dubey 1,035]

Big diff (for me) between NBA scheduling a few games on Xmas day, and NFL scheduling all games on Xmas eve, except 3.

I think the NFL could have:

 

1) postponed NFL for 1 weekend. Have week 16 next week. Whats the harm?

 

2) if desperate, played all their games on Thursday night. If 2 teams can play Thurs, why not all? Everyone in same boat!

 

I bet, given the option, most players would choose playing on Christmas eve over playing on Thursday the 22nd. Not trying to stick up for the NFL here, btu I actually think playing on the 24th is almost a best case scenario for a "Christmas break", as players usually get Monday and Tuesday off after a sunday game, so in this case, they have days off on Christmas and boxing day. I doubt they would be given the day off from Practice if Christmas was on a Thursday or Friday.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Ya, with further reflection, I think you may be right about Thurs nights. The idea that once the game is done, you can hopefully fly straight home and have a couple of days off might be better, since teams would want them back in at practice by Sunday/Monday. I wonder if the Thurs teams have to practice Monday?

 

I still think best thing would be to take a week off. who knows.

[pezeveng 207]

I wonder if my streak for Christmas Day NBA continues. That 12:00 game is simply golden!

[Babying 613]

A Day At Port Perry

 

Never been to Port Perry in the morning. It sure was tough waking up early but I did and got out of the house at 8:40 am. Grab a coffee and bagel at Tims and headed out. Took me longer than I thought it would take me and got to see Biatch by the poker room at 10:10 am. Afterwards JP showed up and we waited for our names. Was told that they would not open a table until 11 am so we headed to the blackjack table. Biatch gets the streak and hits the 4 winner streak for $90. We both were doing pretty good and than hit a cold streak. We left with Biatch up $200 and I was down $10.

 

Biatch got a seat for poker and my name was still down. So JP and I headed to the restaurant. The buffet did not look very good since their main course was ham. Ham??????? Where is the prime rib!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Biatch got a meal ticket after sitting for what I think was 10 mins. The guy that sat next to Biatch had the worse BO. I could smell him from 5 feet away and Biatch sat right next to him. We sat around and talk trade, gambling and golf. We (JP and I) hear our names called and we actually get a seat at Biatch table. The worst hand of the night was when Biatch got a boat on the river but the other guy got a straight flush. Oh well.

 

I think I was down $25 after poker. Funny thing was I looked down at my feet and there was $15 on the floor. We hit the roulette table and I lost $300. Biatch overall for the day won I think $50 and JP I am not sure. He played this slot machine and I had no clue what was going on .

 

We leave the casino and JP takes me to the Indian reserve where they sell cheap gas. They had diesel so I fill up my car at 90 cents a litre. Not bad.

 

I don't think I have ever been to a casino so early and it definitely had a strange feeling. It was however a fun day spent with 2 AHL owners.

[digitalmonkey 929]

What were you guys playing? No-Limit?

[Babying 613]

What were you guys playing? No-Limit?

 

Only limit in port perry. We were playing 5-10 kill

 

 

[digitalmonkey 929]

I guess I need to learn how to play limit.

[Zach6668 513]

I guess I need to learn how to play limit.

 

It's easy. Never fold.