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Daily Fantasy Sports. Lets All Make Some Money


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Omfg they changed it. I won     Gshhshdhshhshsjejehbs

Scored 154 points and cashed all double ups comfortably. My alternate lineup with Antonio Brown would have scored about 135 and not cashed.   2/2 this year so far

Got a sweat. If the early game in the NFL finishes with no major changes, I win 5K.

I got so many cool ideas for stuff we can do for hockey..We can have a contest where you can only pick your own players for Saturday night..

 

Or just a weekly Saturday night League, where you can win and earn points every week...

 

I love this

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Chris, is there a league standard for recording shots on goal? Does each building have its own scorers?

I remember years ago that the Bruins (esp. Bourque) used to lead the league in shots because their scorers were homers.

 

It can be pretty significant if it's still like that because each SOG is 0.2 pt on Draftkings and 0.4 pt on FanDuel

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There's a big difference from rink to rink. I believe the shot clock guys are employed by the league. I know the guy in Minnesota is a super hero who is super stingy with handing out shots on goal

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I want to start betting on hockey, but I have a feeling I have to try to forget everything I know about it in order to win consistently.

 

You just need to put the hours in to run the numbers..You will do OK, with lots of homework..

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You just need to put the hours in to run the numbers..You will do OK, with lots of homework..

No you won't. You're up against genius' who know and care nothing about the sport. As was mentioned before, it's a mathematical problem to them, not a sporting event. And they miss occasionally, but their overall consistency is pretty sick.
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Is there a reason why WE need DFS, if we are just going to play against each other?

 

 

Good luck to those of you going for it on DFS, I am curious to see how it goes, I would hope everyone would be completely honest. I know I will check out hockey before it starts, because I will believe I have an edge on others who do not study hockey players like I do, but I dont think that edge works in THAT game, once you add the salary cap+specific stats.

 

Does anyone know how DraftPot works?

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Is there a reason why WE need DFS, if we are just going to play against each other?

 

 

Good luck to those of you going for it on DFS, I am curious to see how it goes, I would hope everyone would be completely honest. I know I will check out hockey before it starts, because I will believe I have an edge on others who do not study hockey players like I do, but I dont think that edge works in THAT game, once you add the salary cap+specific stats.

 

Does anyone know how DraftPot works?

 

Mainly because the software is awesome..Looks like Draftpot is one of the many other sites that are out there.

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You mean the convenience of being able to pick on your phone/comp, and then have the scores tabulated live?

So that service you like?

 

Yes most definetely.

 

I think there are a lot of companies now trying to grab a share of the market..I have only tried Draftkings and Fanduel and I prefer the DraftKings software the best right now..Yahoo who is a big company launched their own version too..

 

This is like Chris said 2005 Online poker where you would have sites pop up everyday trying to grab a share..

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Arp..Looks like Draftpot is a different model..No salary cap games and they do a bit different..Rake seems to be lower as well.

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some quick random thoughts on the discussion that's been happening over multiple threads.

 

Seems like Draft Kings sets their values based on perceived value to the public, rather than actual value to the scoring system. So, since it uses a full PPR scoring system for football for instance, pass catching backs like Danny Woodhead would be undervalued. I suspect hockey and baseball are similar.

 

Also, player values are locked in on Monday morning, so new information gained throughout the week could drastically change a player's value, but this will not be reflected in a player's price. For instance, Carlos Hyde's rock star performance from Monday night has no bearing on his current price, as the prices were locked Monday morning.

 

Obviously, people running massive simulators are going to be the most successful, however it seems like there is absolutely value to be found just by following the day to day happenings around the NFL and looking for undervalued guys. Whether this information and value is enough to actually beat the rake and be profitable, I have no idea. However, like poker, I imagine you don't have to be the "best player at the table" in order to be profitable. But again, this is complete speculation on my part.

 

Seems to me like Hockey, Baseball, and Basketball would be the much more "solvable" sports for the simulators, as there is a whole ton of information and statistics that are not as widely used. Football, given the short length of season, more defined roles, fewer relevant fantasy players, has much more incomplete information (this is just me speculating again, I could be way off)

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some quick random thoughts on the discussion that's been happening over multiple threads.

 

Seems like Draft Kings sets their values based on perceived value to the public, rather than actual value to the scoring system. So, since it uses a full PPR scoring system for football for instance, pass catching backs like Danny Woodhead would be undervalued. I suspect hockey and baseball are similar.

 

Also, player values are locked in on Monday morning, so new information gained throughout the week could drastically change a player's value, but this will not be reflected in a player's price. For instance, Carlos Hyde's rock star performance from Monday night has no bearing on his current price, as the prices were locked Monday morning.

 

Obviously, people running massive simulators are going to be the most successful, however it seems like there is absolutely value to be found just by following the day to day happenings around the NFL and looking for undervalued guys. Whether this information and value is enough to actually beat the rake and be profitable, I have no idea. However, like poker, I imagine you don't have to be the "best player at the table" in order to be profitable. But again, this is complete speculation on my part.

 

Seems to me like Hockey, Baseball, and Basketball would be the much more "solvable" sports for the simulators, as there is a whole ton of information and statistics that are not as widely used. Football, given the short length of season, more defined roles, fewer relevant fantasy players, has much more incomplete information (this is just me speculating again, I could be way off)

 

I had to read again to see that the first 3 paragraphs were written by you, since it really sounds like 'suckers reasoning' in the sense that any high-level guys would have all that information, and be better able than me or you to incorporate it into their models, especially hard to measure stuff like breakout performances, effects of injury, etc.

 

I do agree with the last that football would be the least solvable, given a variety of factors, including how one small change can have a huge effect on multiple players, and the correlation between players that would only be somewhat matched by choosing linemates in hockey.

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some quick random thoughts on the discussion that's been happening over multiple threads.

 

Seems like Draft Kings sets their values based on perceived value to the public, rather than actual value to the scoring system. So, since it uses a full PPR scoring system for football for instance, pass catching backs like Danny Woodhead would be undervalued. I suspect hockey and baseball are similar.

 

Also, player values are locked in on Monday morning, so new information gained throughout the week could drastically change a player's value, but this will not be reflected in a player's price. For instance, Carlos Hyde's rock star performance from Monday night has no bearing on his current price, as the prices were locked Monday morning.

 

Obviously, people running massive simulators are going to be the most successful, however it seems like there is absolutely value to be found just by following the day to day happenings around the NFL and looking for undervalued guys. Whether this information and value is enough to actually beat the rake and be profitable, I have no idea. However, like poker, I imagine you don't have to be the "best player at the table" in order to be profitable. But again, this is complete speculation on my part.

 

Seems to me like Hockey, Baseball, and Basketball would be the much more "solvable" sports for the simulators, as there is a whole ton of information and statistics that are not as widely used. Football, given the short length of season, more defined roles, fewer relevant fantasy players, has much more incomplete information (this is just me speculating again, I could be way off)

 

Very good points...

 

Do we believe that Hockey might be a better option for the hardcore hockey guy as the amount of people involved in fantasy hockey is so small compared to Football? Seems like EVERYONE here plays fantasy football..From the traditional gambler to the elementary teacher...

 

If an offensive lineman misses practice on Wednesday its headline news on ESPN...If Ryan Oreilly missed practice, doubt it makes news.

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Of course the high-level guys are going to have that information and use it better than you or me, but there are also thousands (millions?) of complete recreational players entering DFS right now, who are going to do little to no research and just blindly enter a lineup based on their own intuition. I don't know what percentage of the player pool this represents, but I don't think it's insignificant. And again, I have no idea if being slightly smarter than the masses is enough to be profitable, these are just random observations

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All I am saying is there are lots of player's who's price on DK is $X, but who's actual value is >X or <X, and you can identify some of these players with some relatively simple research. The DK pricing system seems to be fairly inefficient and exploitable. Whether this is enough to be profitable for the guy doing just a little more research than the average Joe? again, I have no earthly clue.

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You guys know this better than me, but on poker sites, wasnt there a way to look up your competition, and sort of direct yourself to the table at which bad players were playing? You know, Chris goes on, looks up some guy names FRANCISWHALERNATION, sees Im a total fish, and plays at my table. Am I off?

 

Do we know is DFS allows that?

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Of course the high-level guys are going to have that information and use it better than you or me, but there are also thousands (millions?) of complete recreational players entering DFS right now, who are going to do little to no research and just blindly enter a lineup based on their own intuition. I don't know what percentage of the player pool this represents, but I don't think it's insignificant. And again, I have no idea if being slightly smarter than the masses is enough to be profitable, these are just random observations

I think your point is valid Dubey, although I don't think it changes anything. I do wholeheartedly agree that football is the hardest thing to predict. Your right tackle who's a great pass blocker sprains his ankle on the first play of the game, and your QB passes for 50 yards instead of 250. Happens in every single game. Much harder to predict. However, that being said, chaos theory abounds! Those random factors occur in every game, and the best DFS players will be better equipped to ride it out.

 

By the way, food for thought: There is a stat out there that says that 90% of DFS money is won by 10% of the players.

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All I am saying is there are lots of player's who's price on DK is $X, but who's actual value is >X or <X, and you can identify some of these players with some relatively simple research.

 

lol, you wrote this just as I was asking my question.

so now that we know Dale's name on DFS, I can look him up and see how hes done?

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