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Ak Getting Squeezed


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FT 12K GT, just after 3rd breakabout 300 left, 72 payjust moved to the table not long before the last break, so no reads. table was pretty tight the few hands before the breakI have about 3500 which is around the average stackUTG1 has less than me, about 2800 SB has about 6Kblinds 60/120RISE is utg with AKopf: RISE raises to 360, UTG1 calls, folds to SB, SB raises all-in, RISE....

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Personally I don't like going broke with AK in a multiway pot as there is too big a risk of some of my outs being gone. UTG1 could have an underpair, but just as easy could have AQ-AJs-A10s-KQs. BB could have 99-QQ, but just as easy could have AQs. I fold and find a better spot.

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AK is not a strong enough hand with to go broke preflop with at this point in the tournament in my opinion, especially with your stack.My motto is if I am going to play a big pot I'd better be damn sure that I have by far the best hand, and that is not the case here.I would fold, and wait for aces or kings until this guy does it again.

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Disagree, I call.
Assuming you know for certain UTG1 has AQ and will fold, and that SB has 99. You still call?
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Assuming you know for certain UTG1 has AQ and will fold, and that SB has 99. You still call?
You weren't asking me, but I would still call--although I obviously don't relish it. But it could just as easily be that UTG1 has 77 and will fold, and SB has AQ (or even AK which I don't mind). I definitely call here.
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The small blind could easily have a pocket pair here. If that is the case why would you want to put your tournament life on a coinflip? It could be even worse than that if the other guy folds some of your outs. You have an average stack, there's no point in gambling like this when we can see some flops and wait til we know how far ahead we are. Calling here is a silly and unneccessary gamble.

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The small blind could easily have a pocket pair here. If that is the case why would you want to put your tournament life on a coinflip? It could be even worse than that if the other guy folds some of your outs. You have an average stack, there's no point in gambling like this when we can see some flops and wait til we know how far ahead we are. Calling here is a silly and unneccessary gamble.
You realize that if you could see that the sb had QQ, mathematically you have to call?
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You realize that if you could see that the sb had QQ, mathematically you have to call?
math is hard and I can see that./getting better at this stuff...
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I can see why a call is the right play, 3rd level often times the bigger stacks are donkeys that got lucky a few times.If he is sitting on AA or KK then you are out in a resonable time, worse to play another 2 hours and bubble.Myself I would fold.

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You realize that if you could see that the sb had QQ, mathematically you have to call?
Poker is about more than just math, especially in tournament play. Personally I am confident enough in my post flop play that I don't take these almost even money situations, even when the pot odds demand a call. I feel that my edge against the extremely weak fields will give me a much better edge later on than the one in the given situation. If the hero feels the same way than he should fold.But hey if you like to gamble then go ahead and call. That's why you play poker in the first place, right?Some might feel that way but I would rather avoid this risk, and try to win more pots without showdown.
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Poker is about more than just math, especially in tournament play. Personally I am confident enough in my post flop play that I don't take these almost even money situations, even when the pot odds demand a call. I feel that my edge against the extremely weak fields will give me a much better edge later on than the one in the given situation. If the hero feels the same way than he should fold.But hey if you like to gamble then go ahead and call. That's why you play poker in the first place, right?Some might feel that way but I would rather avoid this risk, and try to win more pots without showdown.
Hmmmm. You are probably over estimating your ability to play flops. Passing up big edges over and over again because "you play flops very well" is a very big leak. There are almost no structures in the online mtt world where you should be passing up reasonable edges because the structure allows you to see a ton of flops......
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Passing up big edges over and over again
Please explain to me how we are positive that we have a big edge here. AK does not have a big edge over 99. It does have a big edge over AQ or A J, but until you can tell me how you are sure that that's what we are up against I stand by my decision.And idk about you, but I am positive that I have a better chance of stealing, valuebetting, and reading weakness after the flop than the vast majority of the field in a ten dollar donkament online. This is my style of playing tournaments, which has lead to me to some pretty respectable stats on the pokerdb on bluffmagazine.com (southrnctowl on stars if you wanna look me up) given the stakes I play online.
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Please explain to me how we are positive that we have a big edge here. AK does not have a big edge over 99. It does have a big edge over AQ or A J, but until you can tell me how you are sure that that's what we are up against I stand by my decision.
There is money in the pot. A coinflip is +EV.
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Please explain to me how we are positive that we have a big edge here. AK does not have a big edge over 99. It does have a big edge over AQ or A J, but until you can tell me how you are sure that that's what we are up against I stand by my decision.
There is money in the pot. A coinflip is +EV.
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There is money in the pot. A coinflip is +EV.
I'm still strongly against putting an entire average stack in the middle preflop without a made hand. Totally not worth it when the SB has probably just gotten a big stack by getting lucky making plays like this up until this point. He's going to donk off his chips later when we have an ever more +EV opportunity. (Plus we don't even know if it is coinflip, he could have KK)You don't have to take every +EV opportunity if you can always take the ones where you have the biggest edge (like at least 70/30).If you continuously put all your money in the middle against a bigger stack preflop with a pair vs. two overs, you WILL go broke very quickly.
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You really think you can wait for 70/30 edges?You understand that the best tournament players have advocated that THEY aren't good enough to pass up any edge they have... you know that, right?

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You really think you can wait for 70/30 edges?You understand that the best tournament players have advocated that THEY aren't good enough to pass up any edge they have... you know that, right?
Ask Hellmuth which one of his ten Hold 'Em bracelets he won by continuously putting his entire stack at risk in even money situations. T.J. Cloutier advocates that the only hand worth going broke with before the flop is two aces. He also advocates slowly chippping up, and not trying to double your chips all the time. I realize that this is a faster paced tournament than a WSOP event but, FT has a pretty gradual structure, and I know you can find a better spot to bust some donkey who overvalues top pair later on.The bottomline is if you keep putting your tournament life on the line with AK vs a pair, you'll be broke by the second time, and never make a final table.
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3140 to win 4220.1.344 to 1.We need 42.66% equity to break even here.

1,479,430,656  games	 0.047 secs	31,477,248,000  games/secBoard: Dead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	48.610%	  42.00% 	06.60% 		 621434784 	 97715712.00   { AKo }Hand 1: 	51.390%	  44.79% 	06.60% 		 662564448 	 97715712.00   { 66+, AJs+, AQo+ }

Sorry, don't think it's close.Our equity actually INCREASES if we limit him to 99+ in terms of PPs.And if we leave 66+ and just take out AJs, which is probably the bottom of his range, our equity is still 47.7%.Mathematically, it's not close.

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Ok, where to start.

Ask Hellmuth which one of his ten Hold 'Em bracelets he won by continuously putting his entire stack at risk in even money situations.
Paul Phillips: "It seems like this conversation has run in circles several times a month for years (or decades) so forgive me if I'd rather point to the archives than tackle it again. Abbreviated version: gambling doesn't end when you bust. Go find more action if you want to keep gambling. The "hellmuth thing to do" doesn't mean he's better than the field, it only means he's (visibly, exploitably, overly) averse to going broke."Hellmuth is a law unto himself.
T.J. Cloutier advocates that the only hand worth going broke with before the flop is two aces. He also advocates slowly chippping up, and not trying to double your chips all the time.
Cloutier is known as one of the tightest players on the circuit, and his advice comes from a time where raising AQ UTG would be LAG. He says it because when you are deepstacked noone will go broke with less than KK. Here we are not deepstacked, and there is dead money in the pot.
I realize that this is a faster paced tournament than a WSOP event but, FT has a pretty gradual structure, and I know you can find a better spot to bust some donkey who overvalues top pair later on.
You'll blind yourself away waiting for that opportunity and when it comes you will only double back to where you were. You talk about these situations as though they come along once a round. You are lucky if you get such an opportunity once an hour.
The bottomline is if you keep putting your tournament life on the line with AK vs a pair, you'll be broke by the second time, and never make a final table.
If you are getting your money in on coinflips (or 45/55 situations) with dead money to make it slightly +EV you will final table and win more tournaments than the average player.EDIT: In fact, if you could always get your money in at least 55/45 you would be one of the best tournament players in the world.
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I don't use all of these fancy programs.Basically what you're saying is we need to win 42.66% of the time to make this an EVEN MONEY situation.And that we're going to win 48.61% of the time given his range? Meaning that in the long run, we're going to increase our stack by 6% (210 chips in this situation, ~1.7x the BB) every time we are in this spot. First tell me if that is the correct interpretation of your presentation thing.Because that seems pretty close to me.If this was for less than a third of my stack it's an insta call. Cash game, instacall. But if you lose in this ever-so-slight +EV situation, it's over, you lose the tournament. If we win, are we in a postion to win the tournament? Not really.This is just too close, it's so not worth it to risk going broke.

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One thing all you math people are forgetting is the chances we have of stealing pots later on. This is a 45/55 situation or whatever. But what are the odds we are going to be able to steal several rounds of blinds from late postion when they double from 100-200/25 to 200-400/50? Pretty good, better than 50% considering that most people tighten up during this jump.The best tournament players in the world absolutely do not look for marginal situations to play for their tournament life. This is an extremely marginal situation.

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