How Much Do You Trust Your Reads?

[soilent gruen 0]

Button is a pretty big donk who loves position raises and always c-bets on the flop regardless what he has.UTG plays quality hands aggressively, limps with connectors and is very tight. He seems to know that he is preceived as tight and uses this to make plays. He always had the nuts when he shoved.We played the last 100+ hands together when this hand came up:Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)Hero ($33.55)UTG ($22.25)Button ($24.20)SB ($11.10)Preflop: Hero is BB with K , J . UTG calls $0.10, Button raises to $0.45, SB calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.35, UTG calls $0.35.Flop: ($1.80) 6 , 4 , 9 (4 players)SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets $1.4, SB folds, Hero calls $1.40, UTG raises to $4.3, Button folds, Hero calls $2.90.Turn: ($11.80) T (2 players)Hero bets $4.7, UTG raises to $17.3 (All-In), Hero ?Here are my thoughts on this hand: The buttons c-bet on the flop doesn't mean anything and I know I can take the hand away from regardless of the turn so I call.UTG knows this too so he either tries to take the hand away from both of us by his raise or his connectors hit.After the button folded I know I have the "nut" flush draw so I have to call (UTG doesn't limp with Ax, either raise or fold this means I can't be against A ).Can I get away from the hand knowing I have the nut flush but also knowing UTG would not push without the nuts?

[Snamuh 0]

What kinds of hands would he limp with? Small PPs? Suited connectors? (78ss) I'm not a fan of drawing to the K high flush but I guess it's more player dependant in your case.

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

Hmmm.First post?Regardless.You're going to put him on exactly the 7 8 AND no A ?I believe in trusting your reads, but you're trying to get way too precise in a read. Just my opinion. Your read is likely NOT that perfect - especially on-line. Live, I might buy it, but with only betting patterns on a ten cent table - nopeNope. Your read is NOT going to be that strong.Having said that......if you're that confident in your reads, at least put specific percentages on each possible hand and see if you're leaving $ on the table. Ultimately you've got to trust your instincts.

[rdtedm 0]

I really don't see him not having the nuts here. What can he shove the big turn bet by you, unless he puts you on a complete bluff? I see him having the nuts here close to 95% of the time.

[soilent gruen 0]

Hmmm.First post?

Long time reader - first time poster

Regardless.You're going to put him on exactly the 7 8 AND no A ?I believe in trusting your reads, but you're trying to get way too precise in a read. Just my opinion. Your read is likely NOT that perfect - especially on-line. Live, I might buy it, but with only betting patterns on a ten cent table - nope

That's exactly my problem, I'm afraid of trusting my reads way to much and thus leaving money on the table. During the hand I was 90% sure he doesn't have the A (I still think this is correct) and maybe 60% - 80% he has the 7 8 (Now I think maybe 20% - 40% or even lower). So I folded the hand.After the session I started thinking: can I trust my reads that much to put my opponents on exactly one hand - the hand that's beating me? If I do that I might as well stop playing poker because I will always think my opponent has the nuts. This greatly disturbed me because it was the first time it happened - usually I put my opponents on a range of hands not exactly one. Edit: I can't be that good and I never will be.

Nope. Your read is NOT going to be that strong.Having said that......if you're that confident in your reads, at least put specific percentages on each possible hand and see if you're leaving $ on the table. Ultimately you've got to trust your instincts.

Thank you for your input. I will try to crunch the numbers - but I think the outcome will be that I should have called.

[nomad_monad 0]

he could easily have 5s7s, QsJs, Qs8s, or Js8s here.as you say, you should've called.

[mtdesmoines 3]

I think you called your way into this mess. You now have to call your way out of it.

[TraptSteve 0]

I think you called your way into this mess. You now have to call your way out of it.

ROFLMAOOk so where do you play at again?

[mtdesmoines 3]

ROFLMAOOk so where do you play at again?

I was in Chicago in June and ripped about 4 buyins in two hours out of that charity $2/$5 NL game that runs around town.

[David_Nicoson 1]

He can't have a set here? I call as played.