simo_8ball 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Full Tilt PokerNo Limit Holdem Ring gameBlinds: $1/$25 playersConverterStack sizes:Hero: $203CO: $180Button: $305.70SB: $138.90BB: $56.90Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 8 8 Hero raises to $7, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.Flop: K 6 5 ($28, 4 players)SB checks, BB checks, Hero...No stats/reads - very early in the session.Simple question:Do you bet this flop? Link to post Share on other sites
Metternich 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 No. I think a strong K will c/c or c/r a c-bet here a decent amount of the time since this is a pretty safe board and it's unlikely that it will get checked around. Even if it does get checked around then there are few turn cards that can scare a strong king and he will be able to bet for value there. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 No. I think a strong K will c/c or c/r a c-bet here a decent amount of the time since this is a pretty safe board and it's unlikely that it will get checked around. Even if it does get checked around then there are few turn cards that can scare a strong king and he will be able to bet for value there.The point of a c/bet here isn't to bluff. We aren't expecting a king to fold. Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Do you bet this flop?yep this flop in particular pretty much all day everyday. obv we don't expect a king to fold and will shutdown to a caller and fold to a raiser but we have the best hand here a ton. Link to post Share on other sites
No_Neck 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 yeah I think the flop is to dry not to c-bet... I wonder how often 4 semi random hands has a K in it? Link to post Share on other sites
NoBBiR 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 The point of a c/bet here isn't to bluff. We aren't expecting a king to fold.Then why do you ask? Of course you c-bet. Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 I wonder how often 4 semi random hands has a K in it?come on you can't figure that out Link to post Share on other sites
No_Neck 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 come on you can't figure that out well if it is random if they have a K or not, it would be 8 cards out there, 4 kings in a deck of 45 unknown cards.wow 71% interesting. unless I did something wrong. Never been good at arithmetic. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 well if it is random if they have a K or not, it would be 8 cards out there, 4 kings in a deck of 45 unknown cards.wow 71% interesting. unless I did something wrong. Never been good at arithmetic.6 cards out there (3 opponents) and 3 kings in the deck (1 is on the flop) Link to post Share on other sites
AimHigher 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 6 cards out there (3 opponents) and 3 kings in the deck (1 is on the flop)Using these variables what's the formula we need to use? Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 Using these variables what's the formula we need to use?Bluntly? It's the chance of picking 6 cards out of 47 and non of them being a king.44/47 x 43/46 x 42/44 x 41/44 x 40/43 x 39/42 = 63960/97290 = ~66%Someone will have a king ~33% of the time if their cards are totally randomly distributed. Which they aren't. Link to post Share on other sites
fdsafdsa 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Using these variables what's the formula we need to use?Assuming complete randomness, we have 47 unseen cards, 6 cards to assign, and 3 kings left in the deck.P(at least someone has at least one king) = 1 - P(nobody has any kings)P(nobody has any kings) = (44/47)*(43/46)*(42/45)*(41/44)*(40/43)*(39/42) = 0.66So, P(at least someone has at least one king) is aproximately 1/3Of course this is useless since we can't assume complete randomessEDIT: Someone beat me to it Link to post Share on other sites
00timh 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 No, I do not bet this flop. You can figure in all the randomness that you want, but they are calling with something and that something is PP's or often something with paint. I may float a small bet from position but otherwise I fold this. No need to get deep with a hand like this multi way. HU would be another story. Link to post Share on other sites
meservery 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Bet to represent AK and when the 8 ball rolls off on the turn, we stack the guy who slowed played bottom two. Link to post Share on other sites
No_Neck 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Bet to represent AK and when the 8 ball rolls off on the turn, we stack the guy who slowed played bottom two.I like this plan. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 I like this plan.Ok, stand by for a new thread. Link to post Share on other sites
Royal_Tour 0 Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 why wouldnt you bet this??this is a perfect spot for a Cbet.also, when you open with 8's, if button re-pops to 21 and it folds to you, do you call? Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 also, when you open with 8's, if button re-pops to 21 and it folds to you, do you call?well to be vague it would depend on villian and his 3-bet frequency and hand requirementshere button is pretty deep it's pretty much a set it or forget it if we call. effective stacks make it really close but i try to set it. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 Even if a king never folds, a c-bet can still work as a bluff against pocket pairs 99-QQ. Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 Even if a king never folds, a c-bet can still work as a bluff against pocket pairs 99-QQ.yep yep, although i expect a 3-bet a lot from TT-QQ especially from button or blinds Link to post Share on other sites
Royal_Tour 0 Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 yep yep, although i expect a 3-bet a lot from TT-QQ especially from button or blindsthats also dependent. we have no idea if this has been a super tag game or not.for all we know, people culd have been folding to 3-bets pf. which might make someone smooth call with a big hand to trap Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 thats also dependent. we have no idea if this has been a super tag game or not.for all we know, people culd have been folding to 3-bets pf. which might make someone smooth call with a big hand to trapagreed Link to post Share on other sites
shinzilla 0 Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 It's a pretty easy no. You're not going to be called by much that beats you and a better hand is rarely going to fold. Link to post Share on other sites
Dictius 0 Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 But don't you want to protect your hand? You don't want to give free cards to Ax or some kind of straight draw. Link to post Share on other sites
Royal_Tour 0 Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 It's a pretty easy no. You're not going to be called by much that beats you and a better hand is rarely going to fold.the idea here is to NOT get called.we're not value betting. we're trying to take the pot now. Its not really a bluff. We assume we have the best hand, but incase we dont, hopefully hands like 99-JJ will fold.if they dont fold, we still have some outs.we also dont want to give a free turn to 2 other players with various holdings, because it could potentially lose us the pot that we should be winning on the flop.So we bet to win a pot that was raised preflop.we bet to eliminate players with 2 card holdings higher than our 8's who might catch on future streets,we bet to eliminate players holding gut shot, or back door draws who might get lucky on future streetswe keep our hand hidden, and our image confusing to other players by not going to showdown.end/ Link to post Share on other sites
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