so he says... "that river raise was a joke right?"

[Sysvr4 0]

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is MP1 with A:heart:, A:spade:. 2 folds, Hero calls.Flop: (9.50 SB) J:club:, J:diamond:, K:heart: (2 players)UTG+2 bets, Hero calls.Turn: (5.75 BB) 6:spade: (2 players)UTG+2 bets, Hero calls.River: (7.75 BB) K:spade: (2 players)UTG+2 betsVillain: 18/8.5/1.6What y'all think?Jeff

[screech 0]

I don't like it.I assume his probable hands are AA-JJ and AK, with an outside chance of a lower pp (though I don't think he'd keep betting with these hands). Also, none of the lower pp's are calling.Realistically, you're ahead of QQ and tied with AA. That's 7, but if you fold the one AA it's pretty good for you. There are 4 combos of AK, and 1 each of JJ/KK. So I guess you're main reason for betting is to fold another AA. I think you should just call because this is only 1 combo, and QQ isn't very likley to lead this flop. AA is a lot more likely than KK and JJ on the river. I'm rambling here now, but the more I ramble, the more this hand looks like AA and not KK/JJ/AK. I still don't like it because QQ is probably folding, and AA is usually calling. Also, AK/AA/JJ are 3-betting. Just call and hope for the best.

[Sysvr4 0]

I should add it's a raise/fold line... I'll let some more responses come in before replying, screech.Jeff

[fckthis 0]

I don''t agree with the river raise at all. You honestly have no idea where you are, unless you have a SOLID read that he is bluffing.I raise flop or at least turn. I raise flop, and see how strong he is. He 3 bets, Im guessing strong (AK), but maybe not trip strong. I might raise him on the turn again then. If we get raised, we fold, if he flat calls, we can get a free river showdown or even value bet river here, of course barring the K doesnt hit.

[bdc30 0]

I'll go with "raise the flop AND turn" for $500 Alex...If you raise the flop and he 3-bets, at least that givesyou a clue where you're at in the hand.Same goes on the turn...By the river, you might as well just call down, since youhaven't gotten any information out of this guy sincebefore the flop....

[Wingmaster05 0]

I'm not a fan. A jack calls in disgust, a king aint goin nowhere, and any pairs QQ and lower thought they were betting for value the entire hand (you quietly called behind him...he's got you on A high). The river nixed their hand and the river is a desparate bluff; they aren't calling any raises. If you raised the flop and got three bet, then called the turn, most non king hands are checking this river. agreed?

[Sysvr4 0]

One of two things is happening here, because this is a lot closer than you guys are making it out to be.1) You're vastly overestimating villain's hand range. His cap PF tells me volumes.or2) I was too dead set on my read not to raise this despite the math being slightly out of my favor.And I'm not sure the math will show it's a bad raise... I intend to determine that today.Jeff

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

What do you think a capping range is for 18/8.5/1.6?Can't be wider than QQ-AA and AK o or s, right?Someone good with combinations SCREECH can find out exactly and stove it, right?

[Sysvr4 0]

What do you think a capping range is for 18/8.5/1.6?Can't be wider than QQ-AA and AK o or s, right?Someone good with combinations SCREECH can find out exactly and stove it, right?

The math I'm currently cooking up assumes the following. Let me know if you guys have a big problem with it right up front. A TAG villain like this will cap with:AA - 100% of the timeKK - 100% of the timeQQ - 80-100% of the timeAK - 25% of the timeYou can argue that last one if you want and I'll listen. But my experience tells me most folks do not cap AK OOP. Also, someone give me a reasonable expectation that villain will fold to my river raise if he has AA. 20% sound about right?Jeff

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

Your experience at 2/4 infinitely outweighs my (zero) experience at 2/4, so take my opinion for what it's worth.The numbers you're giving are the frequency he'd cap with the given hands, and it's a guess that (respectfully) can be very wrong, because it's relative to your opinion of the player from his stats.It'd be more objective to weight it by the number of ways he can MAKE the hands, and that's combinations of the range we can agree on.It'd be interesting to debate how often AK caps OOP for the given stats, but to determine it experimentally, it'd be close to impossible to prove anything. Uncertainty is open-ended from the times he calls the 3-bet and folds before the river.Do you think [QQ-AA + AKo + s] is a good range?

[looshle 6]

I really don't get it at all. Is a king folding? No.Is a jack folding? No.Is TT calling? No.Is QQ calling? Most likely not.A bet is intended to be one of two things. A bluff or a value bet.This really can't be considered a bluff because any hand you get to fold you have beat anyways. It's a bad place to value bet as well because you aren't getting too much action from hands that you beat.

[RISEorFall 0]

and any pairs QQ and lower thought they were betting for value the entire hand

QQ still calls if they put you on A high because their 2 pair is better than yours. However, QQ usually isn't betting the river or the turn IMO

[pokerkid 0]

I think most us are focusing on the wrong part of the hand. IMO flop and turn are awful. There's gotta be a raise somewhere in there and then the hand plays out differently. I think you missed out on value earlier in the hand.

[RISEorFall 0]

I think most us are focusing on the wrong part of the hand.  IMO flop and turn are awful.  There's gotta be a raise somewhere in there and then the hand plays out differently.  I think you missed out on value earlier in the hand.

At first look yeah, I'd agree. But look at the hand.If we give villain a possible capping range pf of: AA, KK, QQ, and AK (maybe) then the hand plays like this:AA 3-bets us, KK 3-bets us, QQ folds, AK calls. If we 3-bet, we get raised by one hand that beats us and one hand that we split with. So if he has one hand we lose 2 extra bets (assuming we don't cap), and if he has the other we give money to the rake. If we 3-bet and he has one of the other hands, he either folds and we win no more money, or he calls and we win an extra bet. So if he has one of these we don't win more bets, and if he has the other (which he only will some of the time) we win one or two extra bets. We stand to lose more and win less by raising the flop or turn. If we get 3-bet we don't win anything extra because we're splitting or behind, and if he folds we don't win anything extra anyway.

[screech 0]

What do you think a capping range is for 18/8.5/1.6?Can't be wider than QQ-AA and AK o or s, right?Someone good with combinations SCREECH can find out exactly and stove it, right?

The math I'm currently cooking up assumes the following. Let me know if you guys have a big problem with it right up front. A TAG villain like this will cap with:AA - 100% of the timeKK - 100% of the timeQQ - 80-100% of the timeAK - 25% of the timeYou can argue that last one if you want and I'll listen. But my experience tells me most folks do not cap AK OOP. Also, someone give me a reasonable expectation that villain will fold to my river raise if he has AA. 20% sound about right?Jeff

I think QQ is much closer to 100% than 80%, especially when it gets HU. But that doesn't matter much, because I think QQ only calls your river raise about 10% of the time.I also think lower pp's cap this when it gets HU pf. We can neglect them because they almost always fold to a river raise. We can't neglect JJ though. I think JJ caps about 50% of the time. I think AK capping 25% is reasonable, and depending on the player, AA folding 20% of the time is reasonable as well.For simplicity, let's assume QQ caps close to 100% of the time so that the adjusted combo goes from 6 to 5.5. This is good for your argument for raising, since QQ will occassionally pay you off.Let's now adjust the combos:AA - 1KK - 1QQ - 5.5JJ - 0.5AK - 2Total - 10Using these numbers and the above assumptions, we get:EV call = 4.9BBEV raise = 4.95BBSo it seems like raising is slightly better. One thing I haven't really taken into account is how the rest of the hand played out. These adjusted combos are only based on the pf action only. When you consider the rest of the hand, the chance of QQ goes down because of the flop/turn/and river bet, and the chance of AA goes down because of the river bet. So while the initial calculation made it seem like raising was slightly more profitable than calling, I think when you readjust the combos for the whole hand, calling is better than raising.

[Actuary 3]

can we adjust for getting bluffed out of the best hand? If we have a K here, we aren't waitng for the river to raise are we?

[screech 0]

can we adjust for getting bluffed out of the best hand?  If we have a K here, we aren't waitng for the river to raise are we?

Yep.Although I doubt it would be a bluff as much as it would be our opponent value 3-betting AA. This won't happen often, but it will happen.

[Sysvr4 0]

I think most us are focusing on the wrong part of the hand.  IMO flop and turn are awful.  There's gotta be a raise somewhere in there and then the hand plays out differently.  I think you missed out on value earlier in the hand.

At first look yeah, I'd agree. But look at the hand....We stand to lose more and win less by raising the flop or turn.

Exactly right, well done. Given my position, my hand, a TAG's PF capping range there is absolutely no reason I can see to raise this flop or turn. And FWIW, if the river wasn't a second king, I'm not raising there either.Jeff

[Sysvr4 0]

We can't neglect JJ though.  I think JJ caps about 50% of the time.

I'll go along with that.

For simplicity, let's assume QQ caps close to 100% of the time so that the adjusted combo goes from 6 to 5.5.  This is good for your argument for raising, since QQ will occassionally pay you off.

I think given how the hand played out that QQ pays me off somewhat frequently. I think QQ pays off more than AA folds, honestly.

Let's now adjust the combos:AK - 2

Isn't AK 6 combos? Jeff

[RISEorFall 0]

I think given how the hand played out that QQ pays me off somewhat frequently. I think QQ pays off more than AA folds, honestly.

Right. QQ calls a raise on the river becuase if you have A high his Ks and Qs beat your Ks and Js. AA gets mad at you hitting your miracle K to beat him but calls anyway.But how often do you think QQ bets the turn after we call on the flop?

[Actuary 3]

AK is 6 combos if you are playing with a 5 K deck

[Sysvr4 0]

But how often do you think QQ bets the turn after we call on the flop?

Good point, let me address this argument because I think several folks that say QQ won't bet the flop and turn are completely mistaken. We have to enter another level of thinking here... what do we think villain thinks we have? Let's look at the information he has:1) I 3-bet PF and called his cap2) I called (NOT RAISED) the flop3) The flop contains two Js, so it's unlikely I have JJ and based on my range it's unlikely I 3-bet PF with AJThe only hand he's worried about is AK. QQ bets this flop 100% of the time after capping PF. I could have: AK-AQsAA-77So when I don't raise the flop, I think QQ bet/folds the turn. Don't believe me? Then maybe I'll pull a screech and post this hand from villain's perspective (hypothetically giving him QQ, I'm not saying that's what he had) and when you guys see exactly one overcard to our pair and the information at hand, I predict noone says "check/fold", about 5% say "check/call", and 95% says "bet/fold turn, check/call river".Jeff

[Sysvr4 0]

AK is 6 combos if you are playing with a 5 K deck

Humor me, cuz I'm none too bright.There are 2 aces accounted for, and 2 kings right? That leaves 4 cards from which to choose 2. c(4,2) == 6 no?I have a feeling I'm about to have a "duh" moment when you reply, so let me go ahead and say "duh" here. Duh.Jeff

[Actuary 3]

Jeff.You make money at poker? A K A K A K A K 2x2 = 4.Your c(4,2) is pairs you can make from 4 of same card.There are 6 ways for him to have AA,KK, or AK in the whole after river

[Sysvr4 0]

You make money at poker?

Hold the phone... where did I say that??

There are 6 ways for him to have AA,KK, or AK in the whole after river

I suck at combinatorics. Duh. Thanks.So it's 4 ways for AK. Screech said 2. I guess that's after weighting it in some screech super-secret sauce with untold spices.Jeff