stars 4 person heads up sngs

[keith crime 8]

why do people play these?just because you won 20 dollars - does this mean you want to up your bet to 40 against someone who just won a match?i guess you get a sort of lower fee but really whats the point?

[Scottp4175 0]

I don't quite get why anyone would play these either, you can easily play perfect and win the first match, but lose the 2nd, which means you're losing profit you would have gained through just playing single matches, plus the time factor, you might win and have to wait 30 minutes to start the next match. I plays a lot of heads up matches on pokerstars and I think heads up tourneys (64+ players) are fun, but I agree that playing these 4-player matches doesn't make much sense.

[Eagle15C 0]

I disagree that playing the 4 person matches is -EV. Here is my math to justify it, but who knows, maybe I'm thinking about it all wrong.Assume that you have a 70% of winning any given HU match at a certain level. (right around the % you have to have to be making money HU)Assuming you play 10 times straight HU at the $5 level your profit loss will look like thisInvestment: $5.25 x 10 = $52.50Return: 70% x 10 = 7 so you win 7 times out of 10 7 x $10 = $70.00 3 x $0 = $0.00 You're total profit is $70.00 - $52.50 = $17.50Now lets assume that you play 10 4 person matches at the $5 levelInvestment: Stays the same at $52.50Return: Here it is more complicated. You still win 7 out of the 10 first round matches so... 7 x into the 2nd round 3 x $0 = $0Now assuming you win 70% of your second matches 70% x 7 = 4.9 so... 4.9 x $20 = $98.00 2.1 x $0 = $0.00This time you're total profit is = $98.00 - $52.50 = $45.5The other important thing to note is that this is more than 2x as much as you could make playing just the regular HU matches so even if you take twice as long playing the 4 person matches you're still generating a larger return.Anyway that's just my take, I could be missing something obvious.

[Guest Anonymous]

I disagree that playing the 4 person matches is -EV. Here is my math to justify it, but who knows, maybe I'm thinking about it all wrong.Assume that you have a 70% of winning any given HU match at a certain level.  (right around the % you have to have to be making money HU)Assuming you play 10 times straight HU at the $5 level your profit loss will look like thisInvestment: $5.25 x 10 = $52.50Return: 70% x 10 = 7 so you win 7 times out of 10              7 x $10 = $70.00              3 x $0   = $0.00  You're total profit is $70.00 - $52.50  = $17.50Now lets assume that you play 10 4 person matches at the $5 levelInvestment: Stays the same at $52.50Return: Here it is more complicated. You still win 7 out of the 10 first round matches so...                7 x into the 2nd round                3 x $0 = $0Now assuming you win 70% of your second matches 70% x 7 = 4.9 so...               4.9 x $20 = $98.00               2.1 x $0    = $0.00This time you're total profit is = $98.00 - $52.50 = $45.5The other important thing to note is that this is more than 2x as much as you could make playing just the regular HU matches so even if you take twice as long playing the 4 person matches you're still generating a larger return.Anyway that's just my take, I could be missing something obvious.

The math is right, if your edge is 70%. I think assuming your edge is 70% against random players is the problem here.