StPong 0 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: ITH Forums)saw flop|saw showdownSB ($11.55)BB ($14.60)UTG ($7)UTG+1 ($18.85)Hero ($9.75)MP2 ($9.90)CO ($3.05)Button ($2.45)Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , . 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.3, MP2 calls $0.30, 4 folds.Flop: ($0.75) , , (3 players)Hero bets $0.3, MP2 raises to $0.7, Hero raises to $3.3, MP2 raises to $10.3 (All-In), Hero ?I figured I had 12 clean outs and maybe even 15. The weak lead was to see if he would raise and give away that he had a ten. I intended to re-raise him all along but I didn't see him coming back over the top. When he did that I started to think he may have a set and my overs were no longer outs. Call or fold? Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 well you aren't the statistical favourite by any means, but you are getting about the right price to call. Link to post Share on other sites
Danny Dingleberry 0 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 assuming he has top pair9 outs for the flush draw...2 outs for the overs... "2" outs for running straight draws either way... where are you getting 15 from? Link to post Share on other sites
Ex_Matt 0 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 assuming he has top pair9 outs for the flush draw...2 outs for the overs... "2" outs for running straight draws either way... where are you getting 15 from?Dont you mean 6 outs for overs?Counting ftw. Link to post Share on other sites
StPong 0 Posted October 30, 2007 Author Share Posted October 30, 2007 I don't count running draws as outs. Each of my overs has 3 more just like 'em in the deck. I count 12 as safe in case villain makes 2 pair when I make 1 pair.And I thought 15 outs put you at just over 50% at the flop Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 I don't count running draws as outs. Each of my overs has 3 more just like 'em in the deck. I count 12 as safe in case villain makes 2 pair when I make 1 pair.And I thought 15 outs put you at just over 50% at the flopyeah but your overcards are more than likely not outs. if you had an OESFD, you would be a statistical favourite. He has a Set here a lot, and AT a lot. I'd guess you have a MAX of 12 outs, but only 9 that are clean. Link to post Share on other sites
Danny Dingleberry 0 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Dont you mean 6 outs for overs?Counting ftw.THERE IT IS.wow.I am an idiot today. hahaha. nevermind me. the chances of hitting a running open ender are about the same as hitting a one outer one time. so i'm probably wrong about 2 outs for the gut shot straight draws. I would guess that having running gut shot straight draws either way gives you maybe another 2% or so. this is probably not important OR helpful. I'll stop now. Link to post Share on other sites
StPong 0 Posted October 30, 2007 Author Share Posted October 30, 2007 yeah but your overcards are more than likely not outs. if you had an OESFD, you would be a statistical favourite. He has a Set here a lot, and AT a lot. I'd guess you have a MAX of 12 outs, but only 9 that are clean.Yeah, that's probably true. But if I only have 9 outs, I don't have odds to call do I? I'm only about 1 in 4 to win and I have to call just under $7 to win about $8 Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Yeah, that's probably true. But if I only have 9 outs, I don't have odds to call do I? I'm only about 1 in 4 to win and I have to call just under $7 to win about $8nope, 36% to win with 9 outs.A good rule of thumb to remember, with a flush draw on the flop, you need 2-1 odds to correctly call an all-in.This one is borderline but I call because calling is more fun than folding in neutral ev situations. Link to post Share on other sites
Ricer98 0 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Am I the only one who thinks the flop play is just, for lack of a better phrase, dumb? Oh wait, fancy play syndrom maybe?Lets see, I want to make a weak lead so if he has a hand he will reraise, at which point I 3 bet, after he already told me he has a piece of the flop and usually isn't folding because this is $10NL. Nothing about this is a good play. Make a standard bet, call a raise and hope to hit. As I said this is $10NL, very very few players are seeing you bet as weak and raising, they are raising because they have a hand. Link to post Share on other sites
Snamuh 0 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Smooth call his tiny raise. It gives you excellent odds. Link to post Share on other sites
Metternich 0 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 don't reraise his reraise. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 why the eff would you reraise this flop?were you trying to get him to shove you out? Link to post Share on other sites
NoBBiR 0 Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Dont you mean 6 outs for overs?Counting ftw.I <3 youwhy the eff would you reraise this flop?were you trying to get him to shove you out? Link to post Share on other sites
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