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Glitch29

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About Glitch29

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    Boston
  1. it amazes me how many people actually think they'd prefer to see a smaller pocket pair in their hand
  2. no he actually looks at every bet rationally using math, logic, and common sense.he has gambling solutions not a gambling problem. Yeah - I'm just a math nerd. I've never bet sports in my life.
  3. Both of those are sucker bets at even odds. You needed at least 6:1 on Danny Boy having 50K+ to make it a sane bet, and probably 5:2 or so if you're betting on him having 180K+ by the end of day 2. Don't get me wrong - I'm a huge believer in DN's skills - there are just too many ways to lose a bet like that. Looking at yesterday's bet for instance. Only one person in five will ever have a stack over 50K, but that's by the end of the tournament. Many of the people, say 60%, will not reach that pinnacle by the end of day one, and of those who do, almost 50% will drop below 50K by the end of
  4. Okay - I'm a nerd, but here are the winning hand probabilities if the stacks are significantly short (s.t. 2 random hands move all-in against each other).High Card - 3%One Pair - 34%Two Pair - 35%Three of a Kind - 9%Straight - 8%Flush - 5.5%Full House - 5%Quads - .3%Straight Flush - .06%
  5. I've been thinking about that question ever since I saw Bodog's posted odds on the final hand of the WSOP.Royal Flush...175/1 Straight Flush...85/1 Four of a Kind...30/1 Full House...15/1 Flush...11/1 Straight...17/2 Three of a Kind...7/1 Two Pair...9/2 Pair...11/10 High Card...11/5Clearly everything beyond a full house is a sucker bet, but this gives a pretty good indication that one pair is the average winning hand, leaning toward the two pair side.A lot of it would have to depend on the structure though. A lot of online tournaments have two players with 5-15xBB at the end, as compared with
  6. Guess I was hasty to hit the panic button - sheesh! I'll be very interested in hearing about some of these hands though. Hopefully there'll be a video update tomorrow.
  7. DN just lost over half his stack! Anyone know what happened?
  8. I did some quick calculations, and it looks like the odds of anyone else at the table being dealt a better pat hand than your 9-8 is roughly 12%. Given the heavy action, we can safely increase that likelyhood to 50%. We can assume that anyone without a better pat hand is drawing to beat us with about 12 outs, or a 30% chance of winning. Against the better pat hands however, we are drawing rough, and have an average of 8 outs to win, or 20%.Ignoring Gus for a second, let's pretend we call the bet. If Eli stands pat, we have a question of whether or not to break. To make the math easy, I'm
  9. Yeah... you could probably find a better forum than this... I bet there are a dozen people from the Boston area registered on this site, and I'm probably the only one of them to read this post so far. Furthermore, mneh.Good luck with your game.
  10. One thing I feel compelled to mention is that you can't really be "ahead" preflop with KQ. If you're playing any of the juicy games with 5 or 6 people to the flop, the chances of king high being good preflop are very near zero, as someone is likely to have an ace or a pair. The chances of this still being true at the river are virtually zero. There are some times and places where you can bet Ace high on the flop or turn, and sometimes you can even call a bet with it on the river, but if you're doing this too often it's going to become a substancial leak in your game.
  11. wow, that post was a thing of beauty...just classic - that's all I can say
  12. Was this Pot Limit or Limit Omaha? Because interestingly enough, AAAA is not a horrible hand in Omaha given two conditions:1) You can get Heads-Up2) You can get all-in pre-flopAAAA is actually a favorite against almost every other hand, the few exceptions being a hand like Q J T 9 which is a slim 52-48 favorite over the aces. The reason that it's important to get all-in preflop is that you will have basically no idea of where you stand after cards hit the board, so you'd be playing in the dark.
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