What Happens If, Europe ?

[ahosang 0]

All good points ahosang.Trying to force countries that are so different into one mold is proving to be pretty darn near impossible.

Lets not get too caught up in the doomsayer business though... Politics always has a way of extending possibilities out of the economic constraints which are claimed. And these days, there are a lot of tools which can be employed...We'll see, but I don't think that Greece will leave the euro - there will be a writedown of some debt. Printing is the option for Europe and the US jointly...

[FCP Bob 1,312]

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/orourke1/EnglishI think this analysis of the situation in Europe from an economic standpoint is spot on.I hold out little hope that the Europeans will do the right thing since their leaders don't seem to understand basic economics.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

Video interview with an economist giving an analysis of the situation. http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.htm...5NWM4NDhiNTc%3D

[strategy 4]

I read the paper krugman links in this article at work on saturday. interesting study, reminds me of this book. it is so often said that he is a total nutjob, and sometimes he can be, but he seems to have a pretty great understanding of what's happening in europe.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

I read the paper krugman links in this article at work on saturday. interesting study, reminds me of this book. it is so often said that he is a total nutjob, and sometimes he can be, but he seems to have a pretty great understanding of what's happening in europe.

With Krugman I separate his economic analysis from his partisan political stuff.He's a very good Economist and like you said he does really understand what's going on in Europe since the issues are actually very basic ECO 101 type things which is why it's so frustrating that the decision makers in Europe are doing mostly the exact opposite of what they should be.

[mk 11]

With Krugman I separate his economic analysis from his partisan political stuff.He's a very good Economist and like you said he does really understand what's going on in Europe since the issues are actually very basic ECO 101 type things which is why it's so frustrating that the decision makers in Europe are doing mostly the exact opposite of what they should be.

Krugman obviously uses his NYT column as a political bully-pulpit, a lot of which ends up being incredibly shrill and stupid imo, but his mainstream writing that focuses on econ and of course his scholarly work tends to be more moderate and well-reasoned.This is one of my favorite things he's written. The Age of Diminished Expectations is pretty good, too.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

The Merkelization of Europe - European Germany has become a German Europe -- and it's all downhill from here

Is there a strategy Merkel has in mind to help get those countries back on their feet again? Simply put: No, and it's not something most Germans care about either, so convinced are they that the lazy Greeks deserve their terrible fate. (For this Merkel, too, is responsible.) Europe-wide, Keynesian deficit spending is not only frowned upon, it is now being outlawed and subject to sanctions. No one's talking about investment in the deficit-strapped countries to relaunch growth and employment, or upping wages or other measures in the north that would reduce trade surpluses and give the south a fighting chance. Bloomberg commentator Matthew Lynn in his excellent book Bust: Greece, The Euro, and the Sovereign Debt Crisis puts it nicely: "To the Germans, telling them to weaken their own competitiveness to help out the eurozone makes about as much sense as insisting that Brazil could play in the soccer World Cup only if they had nine men on the field." The high-deficit countries are being buried in debt, forced to swallow recession-fueling austerity, and pushed down a path of grinding deflation that will take them decades dig themselves out of. How can their domestic industries or exports possibly bounce back when stuck in this trap? Without the levers of a national monetary policy, with which they could devalue a currency, their only option is to slash and slash wages again until Greece is competitive with Germany (and its own population is completely impoverished and rioting on the streets). As it is, the contraction of their economies will send prices and wages plummeting and joblessness skyrocketing. It will make the debt problems even more severe and there'll be less cash around to repay the balance.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

Very long interesting article in Foreign Policy MagazineThe Myth Of Europe - The euro crisis isn't really about money. It's about the fiction that Europeans ever existed at all

[ahosang 0]

Very long interesting article in Foreign Policy MagazineThe Myth Of Europe - The euro crisis isn't really about money. It's about the fiction that Europeans ever existed at all

Good basic stuff about the ethno-symbolism, and shared history(lack of) etc. There is generally no reason for an individual to assume a strong Euro identity since there is no great narrative (there is no Other that the Euro fights against - no nemesis to aggregate against). There is no great advantage to individually asserting a Euro identity as opposed to an existing national one. Chauvinism etc lies within the national identity, and therefore group networking bonds and social reward still lies in those national identities. And quite apart from the masses interaction with each other, the elites are constrained by national identity issues as well. If an elite politician privileges the euro identity over the national one in times such as these, they will be voted out quick. National democracies stand in the way of many things. It is unlikely that a generation will evolve into 'generation E' or whatever until education curriculum is changed to heavily promote European history and identity which allows this sense of community to be ingrained. As the author said, news reports etc need to be pan-European(see Benedict Anderson and Billig) As for the economic situation, what is this Krugman saying about Europe that is meant to be correct? I don't read NYTimes or whatever, any links to good suggestions....

[FCP Bob 1,312]

As for the economic situation, what is this Krugman saying about Europe that is meant to be correct? I don't read NYTimes or whatever, any links to good suggestions....

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/0...n&seid=autoThe link is an example of Krugman's blog posts about Europe from this morning.I suggest following both the NY Times and Krugman on Twitter and then linking to articles from that since it gets you by any paywall that they have set up. A lot of sites are like that, if you link from a Twitter post you can read without having to register but if you try and go directly they require registration.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/01/i...-now-then-when/Interesting article on trade surpluses in Europe and how the current policies aren`t going to fix the problems there.

[Balloon guy 158]

Soros says Europe's debt crisis worse than 2008 crisis

[strategy 4]

fires in athensstill, no one in europe has come up with an answer for how the economic contraction these cuts will cause in the near-term is going to allow greece to make the next payment, and so on and so forth. why have I not seen any stories about a movement to leave the euro? and why aren't we seeing brinksmanship over the amount of calamity a disorderly default would cause?

[AmScray 355]

fires in athensstill, no one in europe has come up with an answer for how the economic contraction these cuts will cause in the near-term is going to allow greece to make the next payment, and so on and so forth. why have I not seen any stories about a movement to leave the euro? and why aren't we seeing brinksmanship over the amount of calamity a disorderly default would cause?

Fascinating shit, about the consequences a civilization might have to endure when the government teat runs dry.People always talked about "riots in the streets" over entitlement cuts. Albeit Greece, fascinating to see it happening in what's technically (if not ethnically) Europe.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

fires in athensstill, no one in europe has come up with an answer for how the economic contraction these cuts will cause in the near-term is going to allow greece to make the next payment, and so on and so forth. why have I not seen any stories about a movement to leave the euro? and why aren't we seeing brinksmanship over the amount of calamity a disorderly default would cause?

This article from Henry Blodget pretty much sums up things nicely.I think the Germans are delusional and have no clue about economic policy.DEAR EUROPE: Pull Your Heads Out Of The Sand And Take A Look At Greece

In other words, the Greek economy is imploding, in the full sense of the word. And another round of austerity is supposed to fix this? Ms. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy, what planet are you on? The fundamental problem with Greece, as with Portugal and Italy and Spain and some other countries in the Euro-zone that aren't Germany is that they're not as efficient as Germany and yet they're being forced to use the same currency as Germany. When each country has its own currency, the less-efficient countries can devalue their currencies to become more competitive and reduce the real burden of their debts. Greece and other less-efficient Eurozone countries can't do that. So, instead, they have to "devalue internally," which means cutting wages and jobs (a.k.a., "austerity"). And we're seeing how well that works: The economy is collapsing and the country is plunging toward anarchy. There are only two actual real answers here: 1.Greece withdraws from the Eurozone and goes back to its own currency, or 2.Germany, et al, subsidize Greece's budget deficit and backstop its debts The first answer, which appears to be where we're headed, will be devastating for Greece, and it won't help the Eurozone (in part because it may lead to a contagion in which Portugal, Italy, et al, follow). But it seems more and more inevitable. The second answer, Germany et al subsidize Greece, sounds outrageous, but it's actually a perfectly normal state of affairs. As Niall Ferguson recently pointed out, rich Germans (Bavaria) already subsidize poorer Germans (East Germany), and rich states in the United States often subsidize poorer ones. So the concept of regional subsidies for the greater common good actually has plenty of precedent. But those are your only two real choices, Europe. Partial breakup or greater unification. So pick one. And in the meantime, stop pretending that "austerity" will solve the problem. It won't. And in the meantime, it will just make life in Greece more dangerous, chaotic, and miserable.Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/dear-europe...2#ixzz1mMRw969W

[AmScray 355]

The fundamental problem with Greece, as with Portugal and Italy and Spain...

Anyone notice a 'theme' there?

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

I listened to an interesting this american life on the European crisis this week ( it was actually from a few weeks ago but I just listened to it.. http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-arch...nental-breakup)Some interesting things I learned from it.. So the major issue with forming the EU was that Germany is inflation-phobic, and wanted extremely strict economic criteria for countries to meet before they'd be allowed to join the EU and adopt the euro. And all the countries agreed to it, because they all wanted to be tied to Germany's fabulously strong currency. But, when they were doing the meetings to forum the Union, when the countries would report their data, some of the countries with weak, heavy inflation economies were flat out lying about some of their major economical indicators, including their debt levels. Here's the bitch of it.. everyone KNEW they were lying, according to Pascal Lamy, Director General of the WTO and one of the archetects of the Euro. The reason they let countries like Greece blatantly lie about their statistics was.. they didn't want to be impolite. THEY DIDN'T WANT TO BE IMPOLITE. What a facepalm.Another interesting thing, Greece decided that they needed to come clean about their debt, and give the real, true number, so investors would trust them again. So they hired a greek expat who was a statistical expert to run the real numbers and report them. So he did. And now he has been charged with treason. They are saying he's trying to make Greece look bad to weaken them in the face of foreign interests. All he did was tell the truth, and he's facing life in prison. Yeah, the EU is not a good idea. Germany should not tie it's fate to a culture and economy like that.

[InternetExplorer 2,609]

TAL/PM is so prone to oversimplifying. the explanation they came up with for negative TIPS yields was actually hilarious. "investors know it's a losing bet, but everything else is a losing bet, and at least we know how much we're gonna lose here!"they're of course completely right to say that there was some obvious lying going on.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

TAL/PM is so prone to oversimplifying.

Of course they are. They have to tailor their shows to their audience. The average listener of TAL/PM is going to be a NYTimes reader not a Wall street journal reader.

[InternetExplorer 2,609]

Of course they are. They have to tailor their shows to their audience. The average listener of TAL/PM is going to be a NYTimes reader not a Wall street journal reader.

you're right, of course, but it still bothers me. the stuff that happens in the financial world, it actually isn't that hard to grasp. I just get a little sad to think that the 70th percentile (I'm guessing here) largely constitutes regular PM listeners who still sometimes miss out on the take-home point because Chana fucking Joffe-Walt decided the topic needed to be presented at a golden retriever level. sometimes they do interview someone who doesn't otherwise have a mic, but most of their go-to economists have blogs, RSS feeds, etc. I listened to PM for quite a while before I decided it was best to just mine their sources.

[strategy 4]

bailout #2 here we go

[Balloon guy 158]

America's per capita government debt worse than Greece under President Obama

[InternetExplorer 2,609]

wonder why they didn't go with debt:GDP?

[LongLiveYorke 38]

wonder why they didn't go with debt:GDP?

You should see our debt to Gyro sandwich ratio. It's much higher than Greece's!

[AmScray 355]

wonder why they didn't go with debt:GDP?

Per Capita Debt is more 'shocking' since John Q Public doesn't understand how economically irrelevant he really is. This has always been a 1% country.