Oziumrules 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Too....many.....people....picking....Arizona. Confidence.....wavering.I reserve the right to change my pick before game time. Interesting read.........SportsInsights.com (“SIs”) believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights' quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks. The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to “fade” the public or “bet against the Public.” The Public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year's Superbowl shows the Public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Superbowl. This is an interesting departure for the Public and shows how much “value” there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of “fading” the Public points to the Steelers.Edge: Pittsburgh SteelersCurrent Betting Percentages on the Super BowlPittsburg Steelers 42%Arizona Cardinals 58%Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call “Smart Money Analysis.” This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using “betting percentages” as a standalone indicator. For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7. This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public's action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh. Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)Intangibles and Other Contrarian AnglesIn addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets. For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events. Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We'll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.”During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points. Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped. Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)Quick Analysis of Recent Superbowl ScoresSportsInsights' analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores. • 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less.We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games:• 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD. Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl. Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)OverviewSportsInsights looks for value in a variety of ways. For more information about SportsInsights.com's philosophy on sports investing, please visit our articles on Sports Investing and Value. For live odds and SIs' exclusive “betting percentages” on major U.S. sporting events, please visit Sports Betting Systems Tools Plus Betting Odds and Articles. Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the “sports marketplace” point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to “shop for the best line” because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win Championships? We'll see in a few days. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 I just bet 200 bucks on the Cards to cover (+7). Cop-out bet but whatever. Link to post Share on other sites
Oziumrules 0 Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 My Super Bowl PredictionSteelers 23 Arizona 20 Link to post Share on other sites
Arsenic 0 Posted February 2, 2009 Author Share Posted February 2, 2009 27-23 good ****en game Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 Zona 23---Pitt 20I bet you were buzzing with :55 left. Good prediction.I just bet 200 bucks on the Cards to cover (+7). Cop-out bet but whatever.Nice score. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 LOL what? Arizona's D was mediocre at best against a rookie QB. Then Delhomme found a handful of Arizona DB's wide open. Then they blew a huge lead at Philly, only to win because of the Offense. But it's reasonable to not include the most important half of their season so far.You still think AZ's D plays bad? Link to post Share on other sites
XXEddie 0 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 You still think AZ's D plays bad?Certainly not 'Lights Out' Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 Certainly not 'Lights Out'I disagree. They stopped Pittsburgh inside the 5 three different times. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 I bet you were buzzing with :55 left. Good prediction.Nice score.LOL. I was sitting there thinking....am I going to have FCP bragging rights? Then, I remembered that the Steelers have been scoring late all year and calmed down and sure enough Big Ben comes through again. Greedy greedy steelers. Share the Super Bowls!Thats why you bet on the cover not the moneyline. Link to post Share on other sites
fryer98 30 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 I disagree. They stopped Pittsburgh inside the 5 three different times.And they were the only team to do THAT this year.Dripping with sarcasm, fyi. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 And they were the only team to do THAT this year.I don't know what this means. Either you think that it's no big deal to stop a great running team 3 times inside the 5, or you think the Steelers are bad. Either way, I'm confused. Link to post Share on other sites
dEv~ 19 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 I don't know what this means. Either you think that it's no big deal to stop a great running team 3 times inside the 5, or you think the Steelers are bad. Either way, I'm confused.The Steelers were not good this year on short yardage plays. Carey Davis and Gary Russell just aren't top notch players believe it or not. Link to post Share on other sites
Oziumrules 0 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 The Steelers were not good this year on short yardage plays. Carey Davis and Gary Russell just aren't top notch players believe it or not.I miss the Bus in short yardage..... Link to post Share on other sites
king1305 0 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 I don't know what this means. Either you think that it's no big deal to stop a great running team 3 times inside the 5, or you think the Steelers are bad. Either way, I'm confused.Who are you talking about?Surely not the Steelers. Not this season. Link to post Share on other sites
fryer98 30 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 I don't know what this means. Either you think that it's no big deal to stop a great running team 3 times inside the 5, or you think the Steelers are bad. Either way, I'm confused.The fact that you don't know what this means shows you know little about the Steelers this year and should probably take a knee on your Super Bowl talks. Link to post Share on other sites
king1305 0 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 The fact that you don't know what this means shows you know little about the Steelers this year and should probably take a knee on your Super Bowl talks.LIKE BEN AT THE END OF THE GAME!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to post Share on other sites
Oziumrules 0 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 I don't know what this means. Either you think that it's no big deal to stop a great running team 3 times inside the 5, or you think the Steelers are bad. Either way, I'm confused.NOT. If we were a great running team why wouldnt Tomlin go for it on 4th down on the 1/2 inch line on the 1st drive of the SB? Maybe because he has seen how difficult it was ALL year to get a 4th & 1. IMO I would have gone for it, scored, and the game really would have been much easier. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 The fact that you don't know what this means shows you know little about the Steelers this year and should probably take a knee on your Super Bowl talks.Not following the Steelers shouldn't exclude me from talking. That's why I asked you, Fryer! I didn't understand what you were saying. I see now that they were 23rd in rushing this season, which isn't great. Thanks for the info. Link to post Share on other sites
fryer98 30 Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 Not following the Steelers shouldn't exclude me from talking. That's why I asked you, Fryer! I didn't understand what you were saying. I see now that they were 23rd in rushing this season, which isn't great. Thanks for the info.And near the bottom (I believe 2nd to last) in TD % in the red zone on the season. Link to post Share on other sites
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