Big Draw On The Turn

[AimHigher 0]

I think you might be missing something because no line is -EV. Open shoving is at worst 0EV, and check/calling is at worst 0EV.Also, shoving and getting called is the exact same equity as checking and calling a shove. The equations all work, so put in the numbers that you think are true. You think we have 22% fold equity (JJ-KK), so that's 22% of $27, or about $6 from shoving. FWIW, I'd say KK usually gets it in preflop, and JJ/QQ are a lot more likely to fold the flop than AT-AK."I don't think the fact that 1 in 5 times our EV is increased because he lets us draw cheaply compensates for the fact that 4 in 5 times we're going to be facing an inferior wager"I have absolutely no idea what you mean by this. Surely facing an inferior wager IS drawing cheaply?

Ah ok, I made a mistake. I thought against AT+, 33, 99+ check/calling a shove was very slightly -EV, but it's actually very slightly +EV (~$0.10). It only becomes -EV if you include A9 in his range.What I meant is: "I don't think the fact that 1 in 5 times our EV is increased compensates for the fact that 4 out of 5 times we're going to be check-calling a shove with an EV of only 10 cents. "

Board: 3s Ts 9h AdDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	31.192%	  31.19% 	00.00% 			   947 			0.00   { Js8s }Hand 1: 	68.808%	  68.81% 	00.00% 			  2089 			0.00   { 99+, 33, ATs+, ATo+ }

EV for check-calling a shove: $0.10 = ($49.15 * 0.312) + (-22.15 * 0.688)EV for check-calling $10 (I'm going to assume he always calls on the river when we hit since he'll be getting odds): $8.45 = ($49.15 * 0.312) + (-$10 * 0.688)EV for check-check (I'm just going to guess he'll call 70% of the time if we put him in on the river and we'll be good. It may be optimistic/incorrect). $19.16 = ($49.15 * 0.312 * 0.70) + ($27 * 0.312)EV for checking: $2.84 = ($0.10 * 0.8) + ($8.45 * 0.10) + ($19.16 * 0.10)EV for a shove: $6.04 = ($27 * 0.22) + ($49.15 * 0.312) + (-$22.15 * 0.688)I know your math is a lot better than mine so please let me know if I've made any mistakes (I probably have).

[simo_8ball 0]

Ah ok, I made a mistake. I thought against AT+, 33, 99+ check/calling a shove was very slightly -EV, but it's actually very slightly +EV (~$0.10). It only becomes -EV if you include A9 in his range.What I meant is: "I don't think the fact that 1 in 5 times our EV is increased compensates for the fact that 4 out of 5 times we're going to be check-calling a shove with an EV of only 10 cents. "

Board: 3s Ts 9h AdDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	31.192%	  31.19% 	00.00% 			   947 			0.00   { Js8s }Hand 1: 	68.808%	  68.81% 	00.00% 			  2089 			0.00   { 99+, 33, ATs+, ATo+ }

EV for check-calling a shove: $0.10 = ($49.15 * 0.312) + (-22.15 * 0.688)EV for check-calling $10 (I'm going to assume he always calls on the river when we hit since he'll be getting odds): $8.45 = ($49.15 * 0.312) + (-$10 * 0.688)EV for check-check (I'm just going to guess he'll call 70% of the time if we put him in on the river and we'll be good. It may be optimistic/incorrect). $19.16 = ($49.15 * 0.312 * 0.70) + ($27 * 0.312)EV for checking: $2.84 = ($0.10 * 0.8) + ($8.45 * 0.10) + ($19.16 * 0.10)EV for a shove: $6.04 = ($27 * 0.22) + ($49.15 * 0.312) + (-$22.15 * 0.688)I know your math is a lot better than mine so please let me know if I've made any mistakes (I probably have).

Because getting it in on the turn is pretty much 0EV, it makes it easier to ignore those in the calculations. It's pointless and equates out. 10c won/lost either way is going to be destroyed for accuracy when you take into account the rake anyway. BTW, I used a lot of rounding in my equations so they aren't as precise.With those figures you used (22% fold equity, 10% check back, 80% shove, 10% small bet, 70% pay-off when checked), shoving is $3.2 better than checking. That does assume that he is shoving 80% of his range on the turn given the chance, and it assumes he folds 22% of the time. I think both of those are quite high tbh.I think the numbers you have given are for one of the worst case scenarios.One thing that you didn't take into account is that KK shoves preflop usually, and that TT-KK aren't as likely to call the flop bet as an ace. I think you need to weight the range a little more to hands like AT-AK.

[AcesUp46 0]

So basically, the outcome of all the math calculations is that it's can't be too wrong to just open shove turn, right?

[simo_8ball 0]

So basically, the outcome of all the math calculations is that it's can't be too wrong to just open shove turn, right?

I think you've missed the point of this discussion.Shoving is good. There's no question about that. The question is, how good is check/calling? Is it a clear shove, or is there a strong case for check/calling?

[Giggidy 0]

Ok, going for pretty much a worst case option for checking, and quite good for shoving:Suppose it's 30% fold equity from a shove,That's 0.3x27 = +$8.1 from shoving.When checked to, villain will check behind 10%, bet $10 10% of the time, and shove 80%. He will pay off a river shove 50% of the time when he checks behind and 100% of the time when he bets $10.P(check) x [ P(Payoff)x$22 + $27 ] + P($10 bet) x $8.9 = Equity.1 x [ (.32x.5)x22 +27 ] + .1 x $8.9= $3.1 +0.9 = $4.Worst case scenario for checking is about $4 worse than shoving.With David's numbers we are about $3.75 better by checking.I think it will work out to be a pretty close run thing.

You must have a big timebank

[trussdude 0]

What if both stacks are 400 bbs deep?I was in the same situation in a hand yesterday.

[Snamuh 0]

Explain how calling is not -EV?We need to be at least 31.7% to win (I accounted slightly for rake) according to pot odds. Our equity according to the shoving range you gave him is 31.2% We aren't getting the odds to call? That makes it -EV?????

[simo_8ball 0]

Explain how calling is not -EV?We need to be at least 31.7% to win (I accounted slightly for rake) according to pot odds. Our equity according to the shoving range you gave him is 31.2% We aren't getting the odds to call? That makes it -EV?????

Check/calling a shove is pretty much neutral. Just like if we shove and he calls.Oh, and if check/calling a shove is -EV, then we check/fold to a shove. It's pretty simple.

[simo_8ball 0]

Snamuh, you've argued strongly that "turn shove >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> check/call" but you haven't given any numbers.If you can give some rough figures (or ranges such as 'folds 15%-35% of the time to a turn shove') that you think are realistic, they can just be put into the equations and it tells us which line it better and by how much. If you give ranges I can get upper and lower limits of each line.1) What % does he fold to a turn shove?2) What % does he check behind on the turn if checked to?3) What % does he bet something like $10 on the turn if checked to?4) What % does he shove the turn if checked to?5) What % does he call the river given that he checks behind on the turn?David Nicoson's numbers show that check/calling is better. Other numbers show that shoving is better.

[Deftones150 0]

Where can I look to find all these equations and explanations

[simo_8ball 0]

Where can I look to find all these equations and explanations

In the posts above.edit: I'm not sure what you mean. I've done the equations in my above posts. Admittedly they may not be too easy to follow, but the equations are all written out.

[Deftones150 0]

Sorry I wasn't specific. I meant the general equations (a+b=c) and how they were derived and the person that formulated them. I'm better at using equations when I can look at all that. I can follow your but when I try to use them myself I will probably get lost (just like every statistics test I didn't study for).

[David_Nicoson 1]

I hope everybody realizes I pulled those percentages out of my ass.

[simo_8ball 0]

I hope everybody realizes I pulled those percentages out of my ass.

It's pretty difficult to work out those figures accurately, so rough educated guesses are as good as we can get without very specific reads.All I wanted to show is that it is actually a close decision, and hopefully I've pretty much done that.

[Snamuh 0]

Check/calling a shove is pretty much neutral. Just like if we shove and he calls.Oh, and if check/calling a shove is -EV, then we check/fold to a shove. It's pretty simple.

To be honest Simo, I don't spend time doing these complex calculations. I go with my intuition. And in a spot like this, if the decisions are close, I'd rather go with the more aggressive choice because even if it's slightly lower EV in the moment (which I don't believe it is), it's higher EV for overall gameplay because shoving the turn with hands like this will get you paid off with your other hands a lot easier.That's something you can't measure. If you get him to fold here, he's pretty much not going to fold a close decision next time (when you ideally have a stronger hand). It's how I get paid off in 3bet pots. Not every move needs to be +EV in the moment, but I guarantee it's more +EV for your session to shove turn here than to check/call.

[Syous 0]

why would we ever c/c the turn. His range is wider than an ace here and you know he probably almost never has ak and rarely aq. I'd much rather bet the turn, someone stove it please but I think we have decent equity as well as fold equity

[BaseJester 1]

why would we ever c/c the turn. His range is wider than an ace here and you know he probably almost never has ak and rarely aq. I'd much rather bet the turn, someone stove it please but I think we have decent equity as well as fold equity

Those funny squiggly lines on your computer monitor are called "letters" and "numbers", and they make up posts made by other people.Thought you might want to know.

[Snamuh 0]

Those funny squiggly lines on your computer monitor are called "letters" and "numbers", and they make up posts made by other people.Thought you might want to know.

He wants a new stove. The ranges presented in this thread are horribly skewed. We should expect AA/AK/AQ/KK/QQ to be 4betting a fair amount of the time preflop (ESPECIALLY AK more than any other hand in the range).It's also pretty ridiculous to say that he's calling with an A far more often than with TT-KK. The big aces are more likely to be 4bet, and some of the aces are likely to be raised on the flop.

[simo_8ball 0]

We should expect AA/AK/AQ/KK/QQ to be 4betting a fair amount of the time preflop (ESPECIALLY AK more than any other hand in the range).

People 4bet QQ+ FAR more often than AQ. Also, why would he raise the flop with AQ? We never fold anything better, and he just folds out anything worse.Thus far in this thread all you've said is "no, you're wrong, shove AINEC" without offering anything constructive. What do you see his range as being on the turn? How often do you think he will he fold to a turn shove?BTW, what do you do with AA, AK, AT, 99, etc on the turn? You shove a big draw, do you shove those hands too? I would regularly check the turn with those hands because I think we get paid off by a wider range on the river.

[Snamuh 0]

People 4bet QQ+ FAR more often than AQ. Also, why would he raise the flop with AQ? We never fold anything better, and he just folds out anything worse.Thus far in this thread all you've said is "no, you're wrong, shove AINEC" without offering anything constructive. What do you see his range as being on the turn? How often do you think he will he fold to a turn shove?BTW, what do you do with AA, AK, AT, 99, etc on the turn? You shove a big draw, do you shove those hands too? I would regularly check the turn with those hands because I think we get paid off by a wider range on the river.

I don't 3bet AT. I rarely 3bet 99 but if I did, I'd certainly ship the turn with it. Sometimes I'd bet/check/bet AA/AK, but sometimes I will shove them also, depending on my perception of my opponent.There's also something you don't understand and it's part of the FPS that most uNL and SSNL players have. You do NOT need to range balance vs fish (I don't know whether this opponent is one) and vs most low level opponents. It doesn't matter what you'd do with the rest of your range. Just make the most +EV decision at any given time. I might check AA on the turn SOLELY because I felt like he wouldn't have a hand to call with often, and I'd rather give him one street of rope to do something stupid. The range balancing argument doesn't apply here (and it won't until you get to 200 NL+, and even at 200 NL it isn't super important).Simo, I see you do a lot of theoretical stuff, some of which I agree with, some of which I don't. Just put in hands and play poker and stop trying to put in high level thought into simple low stakes situations (90% of the micro stakes community would do better if they listened to this).

[BaseJester 1]

I'd rather go with the more aggressive choice because even if it's slightly lower EV in the moment (which I don't believe it is), it's higher EV for overall gameplay because shoving the turn with hands like this will get you paid off with your other hands a lot easier.That's something you can't measure. If you get him to fold here, he's pretty much not going to fold a close decision next time (when you ideally have a stronger hand). It's how I get paid off in 3bet pots. Not every move needs to be +EV in the moment, but I guarantee it's more +EV for your session to shove turn here than to check/call.

There's also something you don't understand and it's part of the FPS that most uNL and SSNL players have. You do NOT need to range balance vs fish (I don't know whether this opponent is one) and vs most low level opponents. It doesn't matter what you'd do with the rest of your range. Just make the most +EV decision at any given time.

You guys don't even read your own posts.

[Snamuh 0]

You guys don't even read your own posts.

What I said there doesn't contradict itself. So I don't understand the point you are trying to make, other than being some arrogant douchebag.It's responses like these why I stopped posting in these strat forums to begin with and why I'm probably going to stick to discussing strategy on 2p2.Edit: I don't post here for the benefit of myself. I came back to the strat forums at the request of other people, so I post here with advice on other people's games. I have my own set of contacts for specific hand questions. But it seems that you have a few douchebags like this guy that probably suck at poker (or at least be better if he gave more constructive responses) and give retarded responses like the one he gave here.

[BaseJester 1]

What I said there doesn't contradict itself. So I don't understand the point you are trying to make, other than being some arrogant douchebag.

I think you do understand the point, you're just choosing not to address it.Does the metagame matter at low stakes? You advocated pushing based partly on getting action on future hands. That's balancing your range, isn't it? I'm not just yanking your chain. Make your case. We'll read it with interest.

[Snamuh 0]

I think you do understand the point, you're just choosing not to address it.Does the metagame matter at low stakes? You advocated pushing based partly on getting action on future hands. That's balancing your range, isn't it? I'm not just yanking your chain. Make your case.

Metagame still matters. If you play back at someone enough, they WILL fight back and go out of their comfort zone, and they will inevitably make mistakes (this is one of the main ways that aggressive generates profits).RANGE BALANCING doesn't matter.What you said ISN'T range balancing. Seriously, learn your ****ing terms before making dumb comments. Range balancing is basically playing various parts of your range the same way. What Simo was saying was "if you play your draws this way, are you playing your big hands this way as well?" If you check/raise air on a A72 rainbow board, are you check raising a set on that board as well? That's what balancing your range is. Pushing and playing aggressively to get action on future hands is NOT range balancing.

[simo_8ball 0]

There's also something you don't understand and it's part of the FPS that most uNL and SSNL players have. You do NOT need to range balance vs fish (I don't know whether this opponent is one) and vs most low level opponents. It doesn't matter what you'd do with the rest of your range. Just make the most +EV decision at any given time.

I fully agree. My whole reason for posting this here was to find out how close the options are. I thought it was pretty close. I just wanted to confirm my intuition that felt saying "turn shove >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> check/call" was incorrect.FWIW, I've asked several people for figures (and the equations are as accurate as they need to be to give fairly correct answers), and only in the rather harsh example I gave was shove>c/c. Any independent figures have said c/c>shove. I think that should confirm that it is at least a close run thing.If you really don't think it is close, as you stated many times:"There's a huge difference" "I think check/calling the turn is really bad""Your logic of "He might bet $10, let us draw cheaply and then pay off the last ~$12" is pretty terrible""the times you get JJ-KK to fold, make a shove way better than a check/call""turn shove >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> check/call"Could you please at least indulge me by giving very rough % ranges to the following questions (even just "10%-30%" would be good):1) What % does he fold to a turn shove?2) What % does he check behind on the turn if checked to?3) What % does he bet something like $10 on the turn if checked to?4) What % does he shove the turn if checked to?5) What % does he call the river given that he checks behind on the turn?Thanks.