Sports Gambling 201

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Oh my God. I am going to go 4-9 AT BEST right now. What a terrible week. Come Sunday, I am very, very, very possibly going to be -30x or worse for the week.Just a contrarian bloodbath.

[runthemover 39]

Are you sure you got this contrarian thing from Keynes and you weren't just stoned and watching Seinfeld but realized that probably isn't a good way to start off a thread?Either way the thread has been a good read even though I don't bet on sports. Or bet in general for that matter. runthemover: poker forum frequenter

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

so far, I'm up .02. If boston scores one and holds, I'm in good shape, but that would be real hard. the night will detirmine the day.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Are you sure you got this contrarian thing from Keynes and you weren't just stoned and watching Seinfeld but realized that probably isn't a good way to start off a thread?Either way the thread has been a good read even though I don't bet on sports. Or bet in general for that matter. runthemover: poker forum frequenter

Yes.

so far, I'm up .02. If boston scores one and holds, I'm in good shape, but that would be real hard. the night will detirmine the day.

Haha, yeah, I don't think that's gonna happen. You'll be lucky to get out of that one with your shorts. 7.5 was a pretty ****ed up number for the books to throw out there. When the Pirates tie that stupid game up, I'll end up 3-1 on my totals for the day, which is not at all how I expected to finish up there. I still have an outside shot at ending the day in decent shape (read: somewhere near even).EDIT: FUCKING PADRES RUIN EVERYTHING

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

well, I can only push the boston game ( well, take a small V if boston wins..) If the angels win, I hope the score stays the same. Things are looking dark in mudville.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

-2.98 bets for the day. Boston killed me.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be so overvalued that it's not even funny.EDIT- Actually it's kinda funny

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be so overvalued that it's not even funny.EDIT- Actually it's kinda funny

Why do you think that is? do you think they are like the Packers of base ball, a relatively small market team that really, really loves their sport, and fans of other teams all sort of like?

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Well, actually just because they have like 23 1-run wins, and they are -- at best -- a little better than a .500 team. My dream is to see a huge sportscenter/baseball tonight focus-piece on them to drive the value up even more. Ravech: "Can the Cardinals contend? Steve Phillips?"Steve Phillips: "I'm retarded, and my hair is freakishly silver, but yes." (Correct answer: no)Remember that PM I sent you, in which I said it was going to be sweet when the Cardinals swept the Padres? Luckily, I am going to get those 4 units back and then some by turbo-fading Lohse and co. I've still managed to have a pretty good Thurs-Sun on the bases, almost enough to make up for the British Open debacle. Thanks, Henrik, for Top 5-ing and saving me from complete disaster.Wang

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Okay, so I make a little book on the side, mostly with 3 or 4 guys that play cards where I work. Most of them are pretty small time, quarter players. I take their action, and either use it to get a better price on the games I want, book it off at a better price on one of my accounts and lock it a guaranteed 2-3% profit, or sell it off to a local who wants his books balanced, and in exchange lets me know what kind of action he's getting on sides (an agreement that works well for both of us). Anyway, the last few days, I've had a pretty action-packed card. I've had between 8x and 13x on the line, which -- for me -- is a pretty big day of bases. Not once -- not a single time! -- has a player taken a side or total that I've been on. I probably booked 20 bets in the last 3 days for my degenerates, and not one of those bets was a play I decided to touch DURING MY HEAVIEST 3-DAY PERIOD OF THE YEAR. From a bookie's perspective, I can totally see why/how contrarianism is so profitable. These guys are so predictable. They're going to take the White Sox vs. KC, no matter what. They're going to take the Yankees vs. Oakland, etc., etc. I knew what games these guys wanted before they said a word. If I were just letting these bets ride, I'd give them nickel splits but move the line 15 cents to the public-side's detriment, and clean up. FWang

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

I know you've said that you bet mostly for the action, but do you think it would be realistic to say that if you brought down the quantity and only put heavy action on the more optimal plays it would be profitable?I'm finally excited for football to start now; I'm going to try a season based strictly on contrarian rules.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I know you've said that you bet mostly for the action, but do you think it would be realistic to say that if you brought down the quantity and only put heavy action on the more optimal plays it would be profitable?I'm finally excited for football to start now; I'm going to try a season based strictly on contrarian rules.

Profitable or MORE profitable? I like having action, and I probably force a play here and there (coughBritishOpenDisastercough), but none of my plays have negative expectancy. Well, they might, but not as far as I can tell. I don't trust myself on bases enough just yet, so I am using a flat (not truly flat, but flat enough) system for baseball. I bet all dogs for 1x, and all favorites to win 1x. Yeah, I definitely have plays I like more than others, but I do utilize quite a bit of discipline for the most part. I plan on splashing around a lot more in the second half of the season, maybe, but this weekend's card was just awesome from a contrarian's perspective. There were justifiable plays on almost every game imaginable. The problem is, it becomes kinda tough to quantify the size of your edge, and the subsequent change in variance that would result from making fewer but larger plays with a similar bankroll. I plug my leaks regularly (I was probably too stubborn with the Cubs at the beginning of the year), but they slip through. I'd rather, given the rather raw nature of my approach to baseball, have a lot of small plays than a few big ones. So far it has worked. I've made more than 400 baseball bets this year, and my average return has been:~.08 units per wager. (Again, this is a reason that line-shopping and vigilance w/r/t getting a good price is VERY important, guys.)If I were making a quarter the plays for triple the money, I'd have to have to improve my edge by at least 3 cents on every wager to have a comparatively positive result. I don't know if that's possible. My edge has been pretty significant so far this year, and I'm pretty unwilling to mess with success. Next year I'll probably start adding 2x and, maybe, 3x plays to bases, but I like this system so far. Wang

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

I probably meant more profitable, but I didn't know your results this year. It looks like to me this method would probably be extremely profitable for football, especially college football. Am I right to assume so?

[Shimmering Wang 1]

I probably meant more profitable, but I didn't know your results this year. It looks like to me this method would probably be extremely profitable for football, especially college football. Am I right to assume so?

What method? Contrarianism? Or flat betting? No way in hell I flat bet college football, but I'll be taking a poke with some really bad teams this year...Wang

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

What method? Contrarianism? Or flat betting? No way in hell I flat bet college football, but I'll be taking a poke with some really bad teams this year...Wang

Contrarianism.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Contrarianism.

Yeah, this will be my first year with a functional, coherent framework from which to attack College and NFL football. I already plan on making an NCAA football and NFL football gambling thread where we can share leans and track records. Should be pretty fun, especially since I plan on directing snide remarks at anybody who doesn't the game just like I do (because I am a good person).Wang

[AmScray 355]

Do you use any software to generate unique data? If not, would you be interested in maybe tossing around some ideas to see if developing some is worth it? I have brown people in far away places who write good code for very, very, very cheap. It might be fun to develop some software that quantifies some of this stuff and tracks the results.(I tried sending that MOS PDF- attached it and clicked send, went to sleep and 8 hours later it was still sending, so I don't know if ti came through).

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Do you use any software to generate unique data? If not, would you be interested in maybe tossing around some ideas to see if developing some is worth it? I have brown people in far away places who write good code for very, very, very cheap. It might be fun to develop some software that quantifies some of this stuff and tracks the results.(I tried sending that MOS PDF- attached it and clicked send, went to sleep and 8 hours later it was still sending, so I don't know if ti came through).

Yeah, I got a copy. I read the intro and about half of chapter one at work yesterday, and it's good stuff. I think I'm going to like it. As far as developing software is concerned, I probably know so very little as to be less-than-useless. I considered paying somebody (NapaDon, maybe?) to go back through wagerline data from years past and tracking some trends for me, with respect to:Price vs. Consensus vs. Value. (Something that would help me answer the question: "Is there inherent value in a baseball favorite between -101 and -115 that is getting less than 45% of the action at wagerline? How often did that team win? What is the overlay?") That stuff could be gathered up in an excel spreadsheet, though. If you have any ideas, I'm more than willing to help get them on paper and do whatever work I can to get the project off the ground. Let me know.Wang

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

Just heard one of these "Baseball insiders" on the radio ( I guess it's Buck Sholwater) talk about the cardinals, and how much he loves them. He said "even though some people might say they are winning with smoke in mirrors, they have something that other teams don't.. they are a team, there's no 'I', only we.. real team baseball, and that will come through in the clutch in the last two months"What a bunch of bullsht. Is there a team sport that is less Dependant on "team" play than baseball? Baseball is a whole bunch in individual feats and one on one competition. Who the hell cares if players hate each other if one is has a 2.09 era, and the other has a 170 ops+? who cares if a team loves each other if they give up 11 runs game and score 5?

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Just heard one of these "Baseball insiders" on the radio ( I guess it's Buck Sholwater) talk about the cardinals, and how much he loves them. He said "even though some people might say they are winning with smoke in mirrors, they have something that other teams don't.. they are a team, there's no 'I', only we.. real team baseball, and that will come through in the clutch in the last two months"What a bunch of bullsht. Is there a team sport that is less Dependant on "team" play than baseball? Baseball is a whole bunch in individual feats and one on one competition. Who the hell cares if players hate each other if one is has a 2.09 era, and the other has a 170 ops+? who cares if a team loves each other if they give up 11 runs game and score 5?

Yeah but Aaron Miles so clutch

[CobaltBlue 662]

I lost a bet on the All-Star game last night, and as payment I will be unable to use the internet in my own home until Monday, starting tomorrow at 9AM.

What was the bet?Also, being a Braves fan, I often have to divorce my desire for them to win and my desire to bet on them. I know in the past you've noted that they have a large fan-base that overvalues them. That said, the past few years, they have "run bad" in 1-run games. So how do we reconcile these concepts? Just generally avoid betting for or against them?

[Shimmering Wang 1]

What was the bet?Also, being a Braves fan, I often have to divorce my desire for them to win and my desire to bet on them. I know in the past you've noted that they have a large fan-base that overvalues them. That said, the past few years, they have "run bad" in 1-run games. So how do we reconcile these concepts? Just generally avoid betting for or against them?

No, I drilled the **** out of them tonight. Probably one of the ten strongest plays I've seen all year. The Braves have been undervalued on the road most of the year ("OMG BRAVES CAN'T WIN ON THE ROAD..."), and overvalued at home ("BUT ARE LIGHTS OUT AT HOME!"). Tonight the books installed the Braves as slight favorites to pick-em (I got the line at ATL +107) on the road against a very young pitcher who has been awesome in minimal action. (Coming into tonight, Volstad had pitched 11 innings of .84 ERA ball, and was very good in his first start.) Of course, the public was on the Marlins at a 70% clip, which is HUGE for a virtual pick'em. Nevermind the small sample size, the public was backing Volstad like Pedro in his prime, or something. The Braves have been unlucky all year, and the public has misinterpreted this. Atlanta has been getting action like the A's, Indians, or Reds over the last 30 days. All this added up to a pretty bet on the Braves. I've been on the Bravos a few time this year, most notably when they were on the road in LAA during interleague play. Now THAT was the perfect storm.WangEDIT- For the all-star game bet, we drafted players, and got a point for every inning they played. My opponent got lucky with the extras. I was ahead after regulation.EDIT 2- Sports Bettors are fickle, in most cases. Teams that are popular in general tend to get lots of love when they're performing well, but still get neglected when they're down on their luck.

[CobaltBlue 662]

I've been on the Bravos a few time this year, most notably when they were on the road in LAA during interleague play. Now THAT was the perfect storm.

Funnily enough, I was in Vegas during that series and walked over to the sportsbook at Bellagio while I was on break from a tournament. I saw that the Braves were huge underdogs versus the Angels (I think the Braves were pitching Morton in his first start), so I figured it had to be a reverse lock, and put $50 on them. They won that night. =)

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Funnily enough, I was in Vegas during that series and walked over to the sportsbook at Bellagio while I was on break from a tournament. I saw that the Braves were huge underdogs versus the Angels (I think the Braves were pitching Morton in his first start), so I figured it had to be a reverse lock, and put $50 on them. They won that night. =)

Yeah, I was on them in every one of those games.

[TheMistersMyers 0]

Yeah, I was on them in every one of those games.

Im leaving for Vegas first thing Friday morning, give me some damn locks Wang. Tigers > Sox in all 3???