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On the turn? Check/call if he thinks it's good. Check/fold if not. I can't see this being 1 pair very often at all.
I meant his line with one pair on the river. You do think he has one pair sometimes, right? Otherwise I'm really lost on the turn play.
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I meant his line with one pair on the river. You do think he has one pair sometimes, right? Otherwise I'm really lost on the turn play.
Why does he ever have one pair on the turn unless it's Jxhh? You think he floats OOP with AK/AQ there and then raises the turn with it? That seems really odd.
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Why does he ever have one pair on the turn unless it's Jxhh? You think he floats OOP with AK/AQ there and then raises the turn with it? That seems really odd.
Well, no I don't think that. I thought you did because you called. OK, suppose he's either beating us on the turn or he has a draw. He never check raises with a made hand that we beat. If he's beating us already, then we don't want to call the turn for 4 outs.If we're ahead AND he never bets the river with a busted draw, then clearly we want to raise. If he semi-bluffs the draw on the turn and occasionally bets the river, then we might call/call.So I don't understand why you're calling the turn and then contemplating a fold on the river.Edit: You're taking the river bet as evidence that he doesn't have a draw. So I guess it's possible that this is the best line with those assumptions and the right range for him. There might need to be some math here.
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Well, no I don't think that. I thought you did because you called. OK, suppose he's either beating us on the turn or he has a draw. He never check raises with a made hand that we beat. If he's beating us already, then we don't want to call the turn for 4 outs.If we're ahead AND he never bets the river with a busted draw, then clearly we want to raise. If he semi-bluffs the draw on the turn and occasionally bets the river, then we might call/call.So I don't understand why you're calling the turn and then contemplating a fold on the river.
This is my exact line of thought. I feel like I've been trying to say exactly this!I also disagree with Naismith on Villain playing it horribly, I think he played it fine with either draw or a better hand honestly.
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tough decision. At first it seems like an easy fold. But is also a golden bluff opportunity if he was on the 910, esp if there hearts. Think if you are him. He prob puts you on like j10/jq ish type hand and when the ace falls its a beautiful opportunity to rep the ace and make you fold your now second pair. Also i have seen people do this with AK. Their line of thinking is something like "I have AK but im not re raising cuz it never falls" then on the flop "only 25? thats tiny bet , i still have 6 outs." On the turn and river"OMG i hit a pair with AK! i have the nuts i gotta get all in"But this also reaks a8 or 33. So id make his range 33,a8.88,Ak,and a draw draw. from there, its just math and any read you can get off of him

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OK, so let me rough this in and see if it goes anywhere.Acid Knight thinks he can call the turn for pot odds, because the villain's range includes draws. His break-even win percentage is 27%. For the purposes of this exercise, assume that the villain never fires a second bullet with a missed draw on the river.When he's behind, he's drawing very thin. He's also behind more than he's ahead, so a raise is -EV.

Board: Js 8h 3c AhDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 07.727%  05.23% 02.50% 			 46 	  22.00   { Jc8c }Hand 1: 92.273%  89.77% 02.50% 			790 	  22.00   { JJ, 88, 33, AJs, A8s, A3s, J8s, AJo, A8o }

When the villain is drawing, the hero is a 3:1 ish favorite.

Board: Js 8h 3c AhDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	76.136%	  76.14% 	00.00% 			   268 			0.00   { Jc8c }Hand 1: 	23.864%	  23.86% 	00.00% 				84 			0.00   { KhQh, Qh9h, JhTh, Tc9c, Th9h, Ts9s, 9h7h, Jh9d }

Let d = probability the villain is drawingLet p = pot sizeLet b = bet hero has to callcost to call = ( EV when drawing ) x (probability villain in drawing) + (EV when villain's ahead) x (probability villain is ahead) b = (3/4)pd + 0.08p(1-d) (I thought I could neglect the second term, but this turns out to be a poor approximation.)b = 3/4pd + 0.08p-0.08pdb = (3/4 -0.08)pd + 0.08p(b-0.08p) / [(3/4 - 0.08)p] = d(150- 0.08 x 550) / [(3/4 - 0.08)550] = d0.29 = dSo if the villain is semi-bluffing more than 29% of the time, then a call is better than a fold.If the villain is drawing a bit more than half the time, then it becomes better to raise than call.Fixed numerous mistakes in this post.

Edited by David_Nicoson
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I don't think we can call turn and not call river. I think once you make the decision on the turn you have to call on the river.
They are separate streets and you gain more and more info as you move along with which to make better decisions.
Just wanted to reiterate what AK said here. The more action we force villain to take, the more information we can gather. Yeah, he's probably going to shove in on the river...but if we know he never does this without more than a pair, we can more confidently fold at that point. If he might do it strong or on a bluff, we should be able to gauge his reactions a bit. As AK noted, I told him that do think it's going to be extremely tempting to call the river once we call the turn based on odds...and that it might be possible to fold the turn...but I don't think it's entirely unreasonable to call the turn and fold the river.
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We left out QT for two-overs and a gut-shot (and perhaps a 3-flush) on the flop and then double-gutted on the turn.

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Even before he fixes errors, I just want to say that David Nicoson is The MAN!
David.Some friends and I are considering invading a Middle Eastern countr... ummmm... playing a risky hand. We have the best trained and equiped arm... errr... hand. However there is a slight chance that public opinio... uhhhh... the villian could turn against us on the River...A little help?Thanks,W.
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If I'm the villain, I'm making a semi-bluff only because I read the hero as weak. Otherwise, I'm going to draw and cackle to myself about my hand's back-door goodness. When the hero flat calls on this board, my evaluation changes but not that much.For those times that I do semi-bluff the turn, a very high percentage of the time I will bluff on the river.It's possible for a Very Clever Player to make a little money with call/fold with a good river read. So I have to concede on that point. I don't think I fall into that category, though. It requires a precise a read for a small gain.

Edited by David_Nicoson
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Can we talk combinations for a second?33 2JJ 188 2AJ 6A3s 3 (I think he folds A3o mostly. This makes a big difference, so think on that a little.)J :club: 8 :D 1 15 combinationsThe "behind" range is a little harder to pin down. Some of the possibilities are iffy, so I'm arbitrarily counting only some suits for some ranks. Combo Draws:T :) 9 :icon_dance: T :club: 9 :club: T :D 9 :D 7 :icon_dance: 9 :icon_dance: K :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: T :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: 9 :heart: Q :club: T :club: Jack with hearts:J :club: T :club: Q :club: J :club: K :heart: J :heart: Big aces:A :club: K :club: A :) K :) A :D K :club: A :club: Q :heart: Also 15 hands. This "behind" range is a 3:1 dog, just like the first one.

Board: Js 8h 3c AhDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 75.455%  75.45% 	00.00% 			   498 			0.00   { Jc8c }Hand 1: 24.545%  24.55% 	00.00% 			   162 			0.00   { AcKc, AsKs, AcQc, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, QcTc, QhTh, Qh9h, JhTh, Tc9c, Th9h, Ts9s, 9h7h, AdKc }

So if he always semibluffs the turn with these hands and shuts down on the river, we have a clear call. We don't really expect that, though. We can say that if the villain check raises from the behind range 29%/50% = 58% of the time that we should call the flop. I'm pretty sure that implies an unwarranted precision. When he has a good draw, does he bluff the turn half the time?

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If I'm the villain
Oh, I was the villain by the way.
I'm making a semi-bluff only because I read the hero as weak. Otherwise, I'm going to draw and cackle to myself about my hand's back-door goodness. When the flat hero calls on this board, my evaluation changes but not that much.For those times that I do semi-bluff the turn, a very high percentage of the time I will bluff on the river.
So, really a lot about this hand was very standard for me.Preflop with the tightish lady leading UTG and getting a couple of callers, I call this preflop like 100% of the time because people were deep (and the guy with J8 had the fewest chips) and the UTG lady has a narrow range.On the flop, his bet is really weak. I am not sure whether I read it for strength or weakness just yet, but I like my hand so I decide to call and see what happens on the next streets. We wind up getting HU.On the turn, I check and when he bets $70, it really feels like he wants the hand to be over right there. I am unsure whether he can even beat the A from his bet. I decide to c/r becuase it's exactly how I would play any number of really strong hands and even a few semi-bluffs if I felt the timing was right. When he thinks and then just calls the turn, I put him like 80-90% on J8 for 2 pair becuase I didn't think he'd call with a lesser hand and I could tell that he didn't love calling.The river came out and I pushed. The hero/villain (guy with J8) thought for a very long time and then finally said "nice hand, you got me" and called.Now what am I holding?
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Can we talk combinations for a second?33 2JJ 188 2AJ 6A3s 3 (I think he folds A3o mostly. This makes a big difference, so think on that a little.)J :club: 8 :D 1 15 combinationsThe "behind" range is a little harder to pin down. Some of the possibilities are iffy, so I'm arbitrarily counting only some suits for some ranks. Combo Draws:T :) 9 :icon_dance: T :club: 9 :club: T :D 9 :D 7 :icon_dance: 9 :icon_dance: K :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: T :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: 9 :heart: Q :club: T :club: Jack with hearts:J :club: T :club: Q :club: J :club: K :heart: J :heart: Big aces:A :club: K :club: A :) K :) A :D K :heart: A :heart: Q :club: Also 15 hands. This "behind" range is a 3:1 dog, just like the first one.
Board: Js 8h 3c AhDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 75.455%  75.45% 	00.00% 			   498 			0.00   { Jc8c }Hand 1: 24.545%  24.55% 	00.00% 			   162 			0.00   { AcKc, AsKs, AcQc, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, QcTc, QhTh, Qh9h, JhTh, Tc9c, Th9h, Ts9s, 9h7h, AdKc }

So if he always semibluffs the turn with these hands and shuts down on the river, we have a clear call. We don't really expect that, though. We can say that if the villain check raises from the behind range 29%/50% = 58% of the time that we should call the flop. I'm pretty sure that implies an unwarranted precision. When he has a good draw, does he bluff the turn half the time?

A3 would definitely be in my range here if it were suited.The big aces are NOT in my range since I'm really never going to float that flop OOP with that hand.The QT suited gutshot isn't in the range for me either.And lastly, FWIW, I'm not really gonna c/r the turn with the J :club: x :club: in this case.
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Whatever the villain has, I think we can all agree that he played it horribly!
Oh, I was the villain by the way.
So is Naismith the hero?
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A3 would definitely be in my range here if it were suited.The big aces are NOT in my range since I'm really never going to float that flop OOP with that hand.The QT suited gutshot isn't in the range for me either.And lastly, FWIW, I'm not really gonna c/r the turn with the J :club: x :D in this case.
That leaves just 5 or 6 combinations. The hero's turn call is a mistake if he knows that information.
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Now what am I holding?
Because you posted it, I'll say T :club: 9 :D . If I know I'm playing Acid Knight, I will pay off this river, at any rate.
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That leaves just 5 or 6 combinations. The hero's turn call is a mistake if he knows that information.
Irregardless of what I have, I feel that it was a terrible call with the J8 on both the turn AND river. Since he knew nothing about my play except what he'd seen at the table, there was no reason to think I'd gotten out of line anywhere and especially not to the extent that I'd make an elaborate semibluff like this, which is obviously all that he can beat. I feel the call on the turn is made better if he's folding to river shoves, but it's still bad.I just feel that without some previous history that someone can make a play like this, it's best to just give them credit for the hand they're repping and fold if you can't beat it. I mean, everything about his river call says he knows it's a bad call, which just confirms that it's a spot that he shoudln't be calling in.
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Irregardless of what I have, I feel that it was a terrible call with the J8 on both the turn AND river. Since he knew nothing about my play except what he'd seen at the table, there was no reason to think I'd gotten out of line anywhere and especially not to the extent that I'd make an elaborate semibluff like this, which is obviously all that he can beat. I feel the call on the turn is made better if he's folding to river shoves, but it's still bad.I just feel that without some previous history that someone can make a play like this, it's best to just give them credit for the hand they're repping and fold if you can't beat it. I mean, everything about his river call says he knows it's a bad call, which just confirms that it's a spot that he shoudln't be calling in.
I think most people agree with you. But at the table in real time it's a tough fold to make. It's especially scary to me once I correctly peg him on J8, to fire that river because I'm not all that confident most villains will fold J8 there. I would play this hand the same with set, top two and be hopeful to get called by J8.
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I think most people agree with you. But at the table in real time it's a tough fold to make. It's especially scary to me once I correctly peg him on J8, to fire that river because I'm not all that confident most villains will fold J8 there. I would play this hand the same with set, top two and be hopeful to get called by J8.
It shoudln't be any tougher at the table than on the forums here. He goes over the hand. He realizes that he really can't beat anything here except an elaborate bluff. He should fold. He knows this. He decides to call anyway.I mean, the thing is, if you're calling with J8 here, knowing what my range is, then technically you should also be calling with JTo or a pair of 6s. You'd instafold with either of those hands, yet the really have the same value as J8 here since they beat any hand I might have been semibluffing with on the turn and they lose to any real hand that I'm value shoving.
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I mean, the thing is, if you're calling with J8 here, knowing what my range is, then technically you should also be calling with JTo or a pair of 6s. You'd instafold with either of those hands, yet the really have the same value as J8 here since they beat any hand I might have been semibluffing with on the turn and they lose to any real hand that I'm value shoving.
It's mostly the same as calling with 66, but then the villain's overs are outs as well.
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It shoudln't be any tougher at the table than on the forums here. He goes over the hand. He realizes that he really can't beat anything here except an elaborate bluff. He should fold. He knows this. He decides to call anyway.I mean, the thing is, if you're calling with J8 here, knowing what my range is, then technically you should also be calling with JTo or a pair of 6s. You'd instafold with either of those hands, yet the really have the same value as J8 here since they beat any hand I might have been semibluffing with on the turn and they lose to any real hand that I'm value shoving.
I think a lot of players are going to make this call, regardless of your image. I'm sure you play some good players at this level, but you're also playing because these players do make calls when they shouldn't right? Was villain someone that you do know? If not, how can you know that he goes through any type of thought process like this? His thought process could be "hey I have 2 pair, he might have a better hand but I'll never know unless I call."
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I think a lot of players are going to make this call, regardless of your image. I'm sure you play some good players at this level, but you're also playing because these players do make calls when they shouldn't right? Was villain someone that you do know? If not, how can you know that he goes through any type of thought process like this? His thought process could be "hey I have 2 pair, he might have a better hand but I'll never know unless I call."
He seemed to play well in the 2 hours I was playing with him.
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