DanielNegreanu 141 Posted October 18, 2006 Share Posted October 18, 2006 This question has been around for a while and I've heard both sides of the argument several times. A case could be made for folding if you are at a table that is easy to run over and double your chips safely. Well, with the presence of Ivey and Hansen, you can forget the easy double up, lol. If you think of it in these terms it will help: About 6 out of 10 WSOP's you'll start with 20,000 in chips. That should increase your equity enough to override the fact that 4 times out of 10 you'll be walking back to Houston. In order to win the WSOP you pretty much have to put yourself in several positive equity positions and hope that you come out ahead. Making mathematical errors where you continuously fold while getting the best of it will catch up with you in the long run. I would say that a 60% favorite is too good to pass up, while something like a 55% favorite is something you could argue is a fold you could make. Again, that's provided that you are at a weak table. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 18, 2006 Share Posted October 18, 2006 About 6 out of 10 WSOP's you'll start with 20,000 in chips. That should increase your equity enough to override the fact that 4 times out of 10 you'll be walking back to Houston.It's even more +EV when you live 5 miles from the Rio! That way, those 4 times don't seem as bad on the long ride home. Link to post Share on other sites
shpaget 0 Posted October 18, 2006 Share Posted October 18, 2006 It's even more +EV when you live 5 miles from the Rio! That way, those 4 times don't seem as bad on the long ride home.I came to Vegas in a $70000 Mercedes.I left in a half-million dollar Greyhound. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 18, 2006 Share Posted October 18, 2006 I came to Vegas in a $70000 Mercedes.I left in a half-million dollar Greyhound.MAN, you must be awesome at poker! Link to post Share on other sites
Gunnarr 0 Posted October 19, 2006 Share Posted October 19, 2006 I find it interesting that 60 percent of those who answered would call as well as the percent to win being 60ish percent.Gunn Link to post Share on other sites
yergan 0 Posted October 19, 2006 Share Posted October 19, 2006 I find it interesting that 60 percent of those who answered would call as well as the percent to win being 60ish percent.GunnYou stole my line!!! Link to post Share on other sites
DrZebra 0 Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 I find it interesting that 60 percent of those who answered would call as well as the percent to win being 60ish percent.Gunnmaybe everybody did what i did:dealt out 5 cards and voted based on that... Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 23, 2006 Share Posted October 23, 2006 maybe everybody did what i did:dealt out 5 cards and voted based on that...Interesting tactic. I wonder if they let you do that at the series, ya know, before you call. Just run it out and see if you really should call. It'll reduce your variance. Link to post Share on other sites
JaxxVain 0 Posted October 24, 2006 Share Posted October 24, 2006 Daniel,I might fold based on the fact that Ivey and Hansen are at the table.I would not want to be a target.Wouldn't you want to be in every pot against some crazy player who called all-in on the first hand with AK (an unmade hand)I am not sure I would want Phil and Gus going after me in that respect. Link to post Share on other sites
shpaget 0 Posted October 24, 2006 Share Posted October 24, 2006 Daniel,I might fold based on the fact that Ivey and Hansen are at the table.I would not want to be a target.Wouldn't you want to be in every pot against some crazy player who called all-in on the first hand with AK (an unmade hand)I am not sure I would want Phil and Gus going after me in that respect.I would LOVE for a player like Ivey or Hansen to THINK I'm a maniac because I called an allin with AK - they don't need to know that I called because I knew I was ahead 60-40....if they have a false perception about my play, and they want to attack me with stacks half the size as mine, I'd be the happiest man on Earth. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 Daniel,I might fold based on the fact that Ivey and Hansen are at the table.I would not want to be a target.Wouldn't you want to be in every pot against some crazy player who called all-in on the first hand with AK (an unmade hand)I am not sure I would want Phil and Gus going after me in that respect.Like shpaget, I am confused with your reasoning. Are you an actual crazy maniac at the table? If not, then your reasoning makes no sense. Link to post Share on other sites
Turbonegro 0 Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 I came to Vegas in a $70000 Mercedes.I left in a half-million dollar Greyhound.I'd Like to play you heads up...I would call in this position..im here to gamble and win some money..gotta put you cant win what you dont put in the middle.. Link to post Share on other sites
goferdug 0 Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 simple simon, what would gus or phil do?GUARANTEE CALL!!!! Link to post Share on other sites
MikevJames 0 Posted November 19, 2006 Share Posted November 19, 2006 Honestly, isn't a fold the best option?Sure, you're a 60/40 favourite, but think of it in tersm of the long run.A) You could tell the person "hey, I'm folding AK," and he may use that to be very aggresive agaisnt you, and honestly, I'd love for that to happen, because it's a perfect set-up for the future.B) You have pretty close to nothing invested on calling a huge raise. Regardless, why gamble on something your barely losing anything on?C) "Big Slick" is often over rated. Sure, it is a huge hand, but its also a huge hand thats consistantly overplayed.Personally, I see it easier to fold. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted November 20, 2006 Share Posted November 20, 2006 Honestly, isn't a fold the best option?Sure, you're a 60/40 favourite, but think of it in tersm of the long run.A) You could tell the person "hey, I'm folding AK," and he may use that to be very aggresive agaisnt you, and honestly, I'd love for that to happen, because it's a perfect set-up for the future.B) You have pretty close to nothing invested on calling a huge raise. Regardless, why gamble on something your barely losing anything on?C) "Big Slick" is often over rated. Sure, it is a huge hand, but its also a huge hand thats consistantly overplayed.Personally, I see it easier to fold.So you admit to not paying attention to all the reasons why your argument sucks? Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted November 20, 2006 Share Posted November 20, 2006 Honestly, isn't a fold the best option?Sure, you're a 60/40 favourite, but think of it in tersm of the long run.A) You could tell the person "hey, I'm folding AK," and he may use that to be very aggresive agaisnt you, and honestly, I'd love for that to happen, because it's a perfect set-up for the future.B) You have pretty close to nothing invested on calling a huge raise. Regardless, why gamble on something your barely losing anything on?C) "Big Slick" is often over rated. Sure, it is a huge hand, but its also a huge hand thats consistantly overplayed.Personally, I see it easier to fold.Yeah, consistently calling bets when you're a solid favorite is bad business. *cough* sarcasm *cough*You can't overplay a hand by calling when you're ahead. Link to post Share on other sites
shpaget 0 Posted November 20, 2006 Share Posted November 20, 2006 Honestly, isn't a fold the best option?Sure, you're a 60/40 favourite, but think of it in tersm of the long run.A) You could tell the person "hey, I'm folding AK," and he may use that to be very aggresive agaisnt you, and honestly, I'd love for that to happen, because it's a perfect set-up for the future.B) You have pretty close to nothing invested on calling a huge raise. Regardless, why gamble on something your barely losing anything on?C) "Big Slick" is often over rated. Sure, it is a huge hand, but its also a huge hand thats consistantly overplayed.Personally, I see it easier to fold.I am thinking the long run.If you play this hand ten times, your profit is 20000 chips.100 times, 200000 chips.1000 times, 2000000 chips.See? It's called math.A. yeah, perfect...he now knows you're weak, and will raise with a wider variety of hands...and you, being weak, will fold most of the time...but will happily wait for him to raise 200 times before you get your AA.B. By this logic you should fold AA for the same reason...that's intelligentC. How do you overplay a hand where you're a 60/40 favourite with no more action? Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted November 20, 2006 Share Posted November 20, 2006 C. How do you overplay a hand where you're a 60/40 favourite with no more action?Remember, AK is just a drawing hand. Why get allin on a draw this early? Link to post Share on other sites
shpaget 0 Posted November 20, 2006 Share Posted November 20, 2006 Remember, AK is just a drawing hand. Why get allin on a draw this early?Of course...I keep forgetting that AK isn't a made hand...even against QJ. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted November 20, 2006 Share Posted November 20, 2006 Of course...I keep forgetting that AK isn't a made hand...even against QJ.Now you're getting it. See if this was 22, you'd be fine calling. 22 is a pair, and therefore a made hand. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted November 20, 2006 Share Posted November 20, 2006 Now you're getting it. See if this was 22, you'd be fine calling. 22 is a pair, and therefore a made hand.I have much to learn about this game. B) Link to post Share on other sites
petersun 0 Posted December 20, 2006 Share Posted December 20, 2006 Remember, AK is just a drawing hand. Why get allin on a draw this early?Because AK is a made hand against QJ. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted December 20, 2006 Share Posted December 20, 2006 Because AK is a made hand against QJ.But it's only ace high. How can ace high be a made hand? You haven't 'made' anything. Remember that. How often do you see players call off all their chips on a draw? Don't be one of them. Link to post Share on other sites
petersun 0 Posted December 21, 2006 Share Posted December 21, 2006 But it's only ace high. How can ace high be a made hand? You haven't 'made' anything. Remember that. How often do you see players call off all their chips on a draw? Don't be one of them.A made hand is one which currently wins over another hand if the showdown was made with no more cards showing. I don't need to draw to anything, I win right now without seeing another card.Let's take another example:Do you prefer 22 vs KQ or AK vs KQ? Both 22 and AK are made hands over KQ. However, you prefer to have AK rather than 22. AK is more "made" than 22. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 A made hand is one which currently wins over another hand if the showdown was made with no more cards showing. I don't need to draw to anything, I win right now without seeing another card.Let's take another example:Do you prefer 22 vs KQ or AK vs KQ? Both 22 and AK are made hands over KQ. However, you prefer to have AK rather than 22. AK is more "made" than 22.I wasn't being serious. Just so you know. Link to post Share on other sites
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