gruven 530 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 CURRENT RECORD11/04 Iginla UNDER .5 LOSS (-$500)11/04 Modano UNDER .5 WIN (+$645)11/05Sabres vs RANGERS- Ranger win @ + 145 (PUSH)06/11 Flyers @ Leafs -1.5 @ +165 $500 WIN +$82506/11 Stars -1.5 @ Canucks + 220 $500 LOSS 06/11 Pens - Over 27.5 shots + 110 $500 LOSS06/11 Ovechkin-under .5 pts + 160 $500 LOSSRunning Total= $8,970-$130 Link to post Share on other sites
nell789 0 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 06/11 Flyers @ Leafs -1.5 @ +165 $50006/11 Stars -1.5 @ Canucks + 220 $500I'd rather not show my ignorance here, but what does all this mean exactly? Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted November 6, 2006 Author Share Posted November 6, 2006 I'd rather not show my ignorance here, but what does all this mean exactly? The 1.5 is the goal line. If it's Toronto -1.5 that means Toronto would have to win by 2. The next number is the money line, +2.20 would mean that if you bet 1.00 you'd win 2.20. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 aren't these results missing the vig? IE shouldn't it cost more if you lose, or win you less if you win? The vig has to come some where, doesn't it? Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted November 6, 2006 Author Share Posted November 6, 2006 aren't these results missing the vig? IE shouldn't it cost more if you lose, or win you less if you win? The vig has to come some where, doesn't it? Basically, you pay vig when you bet on favorites and they lose. For example, let's say you bet San Jose at home to LA. The line on San Jose might be -1.70. That means that if you want to win 1.00 you have to lay 1.70. If you bet LA, you'd only get +1.50. So there you can see the vig. If they get 10 people to bet on LA and 10 people to bet on San Jose they can't lose. Link to post Share on other sites
sp227 0 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 My first post on this forum. I usually only read DN's blog (which is awesome) and some random threads, but being a former pro hockey player and moving out to Vegas since my retirement this past summer, I have started to take up NHL betting as well, and believe I have a distinct edge on the public with my hockey background and understanding of the players mentality. Plus it helps to have a few friends still playing lol. I hope to share with you some of my picks as well. Any other hockey people from Vegas? Not too many of us here. DN, congratulations on all your success, and I have to say your insight on specific hands within your blog has greatly improved my game. Thank youTonights games/analysis:Ottawa o6 -110Too much offense here on both sides for this total to go under. Ottawa has struggled offensively for the past two/three games, but they had the same performance prior to their offensive explosion against the Leafs a week ago. Look for this offense to take advantage of another weak defensive team.Atlanta -190Laying a big number here for a reason. Boston's offense is anemic at best averaging only 2.6 GPG. Atlanta on the other hand has a GAA of 2.63 and an offensive scoring at a clip of 3.4 GPG. Lots of firepower potential here for Atlanta in this spot. Atlanta is 10-3 at home in its last 13 as well. Link to post Share on other sites
Ben_G 0 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Ok this is fun since i love to bet on sports....First day betting,Br = 10 000Washington Capitals +0.5 -116 +140, $500Tampa Bay Lightning +0.5 -146 +110, $500Vancouver Canucks +0.5 -142 +115 , $500Ill also take Pittsburg Over 27.5 shots on goal +112, $500And Toronto Over 32.5 s.o.g + 123, $500 Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Basically, you pay vig when you bet on favorites and they lose. For example, let's say you bet San Jose at home to LA. The line on San Jose might be -1.70. That means that if you want to win 1.00 you have to lay 1.70. If you bet LA, you'd only get +1.50. So there you can see the vig. If they get 10 people to bet on LA and 10 people to bet on San Jose they can't lose.fwiw, the vig is not just applied to the favourite, though its easier to think of it that way. the vig is taken on all bets equally. sometimes its argued that its relatively lower on underdogs. i disagree with that, but don't have the statistical knowledge to argue it.but yeah, not only on the favourite.i'll probably start a 'betting account' in this thread the next few days when i get around to it. should be fun. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Basically, you pay vig when you bet on favorites and they lose. For example, let's say you bet San Jose at home to LA. The line on San Jose might be -1.70. That means that if you want to win 1.00 you have to lay 1.70. If you bet LA, you'd only get +1.50. So there you can see the vig. If they get 10 people to bet on LA and 10 people to bet on San Jose they can't lose.ah... the only form of sports betting I'm familar with is football, which is like 11/10 sort of vig. I don't ever wager with bookies, as you can proably tell, and I only wager on sports against fans of the team who are willing to make rediculous wagers Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 My first post on this forum. I usually only read DN's blog (which is awesome) and some random threads, but being a former pro hockey player and moving out to Vegas since my retirement this past summer, I have started to take up NHL betting as well, and believe I have a distinct edge on the public with my hockey background and understanding of the players mentality. Plus it helps to have a few friends still playing lol. I hope to share with you some of my picks as well. Any other hockey people from Vegas? Not too many of us here. DN, congratulations on all your success, and I have to say your insight on specific hands within your blog has greatly improved my game. Thank youTonights games/analysis:Ottawa o6 -110Too much offense here on both sides for this total to go under. Ottawa has struggled offensively for the past two/three games, but they had the same performance prior to their offensive explosion against the Leafs a week ago. Look for this offense to take advantage of another weak defensive team.Atlanta -190Laying a big number here for a reason. Boston's offense is anemic at best averaging only 2.6 GPG. Atlanta on the other hand has a GAA of 2.63 and an offensive scoring at a clip of 3.4 GPG. Lots of firepower potential here for Atlanta in this spot. Atlanta is 10-3 at home in its last 13 as well.Welcome to the forums..So will you tell us who you are...or at least tell us if you played in the NHL??? Link to post Share on other sites
nell789 0 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 i'll probably start a 'betting account' in this thread the next few days when i get around to it. should be fun.Or you could play $5 and $10 Sports Select tickets on a bankroll of real money. That's what I've started doing recently. I'm going to have to keep an eye on myself though, I can see how it's addicting.Side bet? Who can make the most money playing Proline in the month of November playing only <=$10 tickets? Link to post Share on other sites
sp227 0 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Welcome to the forums..So will you tell us who you are...or at least tell us if you played in the NHL???I never played a game in the NHL. I played mainly in the AHL and ECHL. You wouldn't recognize my name unless you were a die hard fan that followed those leagues. On the other topic of vigs, most casinos/online books offer a twenty cent line in hockey (i.e. if the favorite is -140 the underdog is +120). This is done because hockey is a low volume betting sport and does not create enough action for the books to warrant a ten cent line like they do for MLB. Although the Hilton in Vegas is offering a dime line to bettors to try and attract more play. Here is an article on it in the Las Vegas Sun before the season started...http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/.../566677773.html Link to post Share on other sites
Ben_G 0 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 I never played a game in the NHL. I played mainly in the AHL and ECHL. You wouldn't recognize my name unless you were a die hard fan that followed those leagues. On the other topic of vigs, most casinos/online books offer a twenty cent line in hockey (i.e. if the favorite is -140 the underdog is +120). This is done because hockey is a low volume betting sport and does not create enough action for the books to warrant a ten cent line like they do for MLB. Although the Hilton in Vegas is offering a dime line to bettors to try and attract more play. Here is an article on it in the Las Vegas Sun before the season started...http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/.../566677773.html My cousin played for Portland Last year in the AHL so i follow it quite regularly. What team did you play for, maybe you faught him or something.LOL Link to post Share on other sites
sp227 0 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 My cousin played for Portland Last year in the AHL so i follow it quite regularly. What team did you play for, maybe you faught him or something.LOLI played for Rochester last year, but I didn't play against Portland. Who is your cousin? Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 Atlanta -190Laying a big number here for a reason. Boston's offense is anemic at best averaging only 2.6 GPG. Atlanta on the other hand has a GAA of 2.63 and an offensive scoring at a clip of 3.4 GPG. Lots of firepower potential here for Atlanta in this spot. Atlanta is 10-3 at home in its last 13 as well. You might end up winning this bet, but I think it was a big mistake. A friend of mine actually took Boston and had this to say:On Saturday night we mentioned that they Thrashers were in the midst of a grueling schedule and that they’re chances of winning on the Island were not very good at all. Well, they won, 4-, however, it wasn’t because they were sharp. The Thrashers were flat but the Islanders were even flatter. In fact, Atlanta managed just nine shots on net in the final two periods and just 18 for the entire game. Now the Thrashers travel home to make this their ninth game in 14 nights and every game during that stretch they’ve had to board a plane to get to their next destination. This is a tired hockey team that has been lethargic its past two games and we don’t see that changing here. The Bruins came up with a big finish in their last game, scoring in the final minute to tie it and than scoring in OT to win it. Bruins have picked up points in three consecutive games (two wins and a shootout loss), beating Ottawa and Tampa and losing a shootout to the Sabres. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 I played for Rochester last year, but I didn't play against Portland. Who is your cousin?Welcome to the forum Sam. Good luck in Vegas. Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 I like Vancouver tonight at home plus money. I also don't see anyone scoring in this game so I'm also going under 5! Two hard working defensive teams I could easily see a 2-1 or 3-1 Vancouver win. You can bet Vancouver to win in regulation +1.17 or you can bet on the outcome including the shootout +1.15. Luongo is one of the best breakaway goalies in the world so I'd gladly give up the 0.02 and take my chances in the shootout. Not to mention the fact that Vancouver does boast some solid snipers in the shootout. Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 Luongo is one of the best breakaway goalies in the world I agree with Vancouver being a little better offensively when it comes to talent for a shootout, but I can absolutely guarantee you that most NHL players will tell you that no one is better than Marty Turco on a penalty shot... Link to post Share on other sites
sp227 0 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 You might end up winning this bet, but I think it was a big mistake. A friend of mine actually took Boston and had this to say:On Saturday night we mentioned that they Thrashers were in the midst of a grueling schedule and that they’re chances of winning on the Island were not very good at all. Well, they won, 4-, however, it wasn’t because they were sharp. The Thrashers were flat but the Islanders were even flatter. In fact, Atlanta managed just nine shots on net in the final two periods and just 18 for the entire game. Now the Thrashers travel home to make this their ninth game in 14 nights and every game during that stretch they’ve had to board a plane to get to their next destination. This is a tired hockey team that has been lethargic its past two games and we don’t see that changing here. The Bruins came up with a big finish in their last game, scoring in the final minute to tie it and than scoring in OT to win it. Bruins have picked up points in three consecutive games (two wins and a shootout loss), beating Ottawa and Tampa and losing a shootout to the Sabres.I like your friend's thought process. That's why sports are so interesting, you can look at a game from a million different angles and can make a case for either side. Most teams board a plane after every game though so they're all in the same boat (errr plane). If it were all bus travel and coast to coast games then I could see the travel implications. But you are probably right, there was more value in the Bruins tonight.Welcome to the forum Sam. Good luck in Vegas.thanks digitalmonkey. nice research Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 thanks digitalmonkey. nice research Not sure if you'd know, but is 4 AHL teams in one season a record? Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 I agree with Vancouver being a little better offensively when it comes to talent for a shootout, but I can absolutely guarantee you that most NHL players will tell you that no one is better than Marty Turco on a penalty shot... That might be true, but what does it have to do with my bet? Mike Smith is playing for Dallas Link to post Share on other sites
Ben_G 0 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 I played for Rochester last year, but I didn't play against Portland. Who is your cousin? Sadly my cousins career came to an abrupt end actually part of the reason they wear visors in the AHL now. Jordan Smith he played defence for the pirates and took a puck in the eye while boxing a guy out in the defensive zone. He lost his eye and his career in his first season. Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 That might be true, but what does it have to do with my bet? Mike Smith is playing for Dallas SON OF A ........... lol I need to read the Western Conference reports closer...... lol Link to post Share on other sites
Ben_G 0 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 So far so good for my bets although i lost the toronto shots bet by 2....U like the wasington and tampa bets dont u. Crushing It!! Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 That might be true, but what does it have to do with my bet? Mike Smith is playing for Dallas Oh for the love of..... the first goal on Smith was AWFUL.... I smell a loss on THIS one.... Link to post Share on other sites
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