Quiz Question #22

[TraptSteve 0]

I just repeat "I think i got you, yeah... I think I've got ya" in a soft tone every 20 seconds - glancing up from the board into his eyes each time. I gauge his reaction from this and then make a now informed decision.Actually, I fold based on... He's putting his tournament life on the line on the river, with no cards to come. With still plenty of time and chips to operate. Doesn't make sense. Remember the cardinal rule: Always leave yourself outs.He's representing a huge hand (straight), which he turned and decided to slowplay. Assuming you made it about 3x the BB, it a hand like J-10 isn't bad against what could be interpreted as a typical blind steal.He gets his straight draw on the flop and checks. I believe he was looking to check/raise on the flop to test you.That opportunity to find out if you stealing or had a hand was missed but another one opened up when he made his straight due to your gratuitous free card. Instead of putting you to the test on the turn, he waited for the river to really lay it on you with an open push.THE ONLY hand that you can beat here is a busted straight draw & pair combo such as 10-7s... Basically you failed to get any info on the flop, so you really can't call the river. Muck it.

[shpaget 0]

THE ONLY hand that you can beat here is a busted straight draw & pair combo such as 10-7s...

The ONLY plausible hand he has here is JT (which he ridiculously let you have a free crack at a flush, or completing a queen high straight, etc, etc)....nor did he try to obtain any value at all after you bet. Do you think he called pf with 56 or T6?There are 16 ways for him to have JT.As far as the "only" hand beating you being a busted draw?66 - 6 waysTT - 6 waysT9 - 12 waysJ9 - 12 waysKT - 12 waysQT - 16 waysAT - 12 waysyou get the drift?And I haven't even started on all the possible two spade card combinations he could plausibly have.

Doesn't make sense. Remember the cardinal rule: Always leave yourself outs.

Are you suggesting that no one ever made a stone cold bluff on the river where they couldn't even beat the board? This IS where you stone cold bluff because you don't need outs, and you're not worried about your opponent calculating his outs, and perhaps calling on a draw he doesn't actually need.

[TraptSteve 0]

The ONLY plausible hand he has here is JT (which he ridiculously let you have a free crack at a flush, or completing a queen high straight, etc, etc)....nor did he try to obtain any value at all after you bet. Do you think he called pf with 56 or T6?There are 16 ways for him to have JT.As far as the "only" hand beating you being a busted draw?66 - 6 waysTT - 6 ways....you get the drift?Are you suggesting that no one ever made a stone cold bluff on the river where they couldn't even beat the board? This IS where you stone cold bluff because you don't need outs, and you're not worried about your opponent calculating his outs, and perhaps calling on a draw he doesn't actually need.

The fact is we get NO info whatsoever on the flop as to the strength of our villain's hand. We essentially make a huge mistake by not betting the flop and it has comeback to burn us.Remember, we raised from a steal position... if the opponent thinks we're full of it enough to bluff on the river, why wouldn't he try to check raise us on the turn with his semi-draw???We definately don't have the right odds to make this call on the river. Tip your cap to him if he was just making a gutsy play.You still have chips - wait for a better spot. Muck it

[David_Nicoson 1]

This is a slightly different question for each person. If the "you" in the question is David Nicoson, then the villain probably also doesn't know anything about me. If you have a reputation, the villain may take that into account.It's a question of reads, really. We can't beat the hand he's representing. Do we believe him? On what level is a random player most likely to think?

1. I have a big hand. I'm going to bet a lot of money.
2. I think the PFR raiser is weak. I'm going to bet a lot of money and he will fold.
3. The PFR is showing a lot of weakness. I can get paid on my big hand by representing a bluff with a missed flush draw.

We're in the dark a bit here, since none of our bets do much to define his hand. We're really back on level 1 at this point ourselves. Hey, this hand is pretty good and we're getting some odds (~1.75:1). I hate to go broke calling with one pair, but I think this is a spot for it. If we fold, we're looking at ending day 1 down a bit (assuming WSOP or similar). It's not desperation time, but there's a little urgency.

[EmOEmU 0]

I would still argue, like I said before. Why would somebody check twice and only call with a hand like 3 of a kind or two pairs. There are so many draws that can beat him and if not they are at least cards that will kill action. There are 16 cards that put a 1 card straight on board and an additional 7 cards that put a potential flush on board. Daniel is known as a player who gambles and plays a lot of hands so he rates to often have some sort of pair and / or a draw. Why would this player give a free card?He could have 10-J. But since we checked the flop, then only bet a small amount on the turn - why would he go all in? Is he really thinking "right he knows that i know he is weak so ill bet a lot of money and he'll know that i know that i know he's weak so he'll think im using that to try and buy the pot and then call with a weak hand"Maybe I have the answer wrong, but the way the hand played out. I think its more likely he missed a draw or had a bad pair and is trying to buy the pot than he went through the though proccess above.

[Dan The Man 0]

I would fold. I don't think I could call off most of my stack with just top pair right there. The opponent did play the hand suspiciously though. If he called the raise with suited connectors and hit two pair on the flop, his check to trap makes sense. But if he had pocket nines or eights wouldn't he have reraised preflop to take it down?The turn call is weird also. The board is straightening and now there's two spades. Maybe he hit his draw on the turn and was hoping to trap, taking a chance that we weren't on a flush draw.

[Ramram84 0]

For this question I am assuming the following:1. If we don't know ANYTHING about our opponent, our opponent doesn't know ANYTHING about us 2. If our opponent has made it 8 hours into a $10,000 buy-in tournament, he knows a little something about poker.I would fold the hand for the following reasons:1. First and foremost, I have plenty of chips to survive. I may not be a huge stack right now, but not worth risking it on this hand.2. I haven't slowplayed this hand to try and win more chips. IMO, I've just played it poorly, so no reason to possibly punish myself more.3. I have no reason to believe it is a bluff. If BB decided to play with 10-J, then he/she has played this hand exactly as I would expect.4. his/her chip stack indicates that he/she may be a tight player who might not bet the turn with trips even though it should be bet.This just isn't the time to risk crippling myself.

[captcanada 0]

You are dealt A K and raise from late position to 800. The player in the big blind calls you. The flop comes A 9 8 . The big blind checks to you and you decide to play tricky and check behind him. The turn is the 7 and your opponent checks again. This time you make a goofy little bet of 1000. Your opponent calls. The river comes the 3 and all of a sudden your opponent goes all in for 5400. You have 6300. The question is simple, without knowing ANYTHING about the player, what would you do? It is level five of a $10,000 buy in tournament.

Fold, pot odds,(and you only have top pair), make this a simple fold.He might be bluffing, but I think your up against a monster, my bet would be pocket aces, he flopped top set. With his betting pattern it's the only hand that makes sense.- Called on the flop,(field was already down to 1, and he wanted more action)- Checked to the raiser on the flop(standard move)- Slow played on the turn(he probably felt he was way ahead)- Over bet on the river(to induce a call)

[offset 0]

I voted fold but I'm not sure. If level five is near the end of the day or the dinner break there would be a good case for calling. He could have T8, T9, or T7 as well as any number of equally probable bluffing hands. He may assume you will not call with less than two pair. Actually, I change my vote to call.

[shpaget 0]

Fold, pot odds,(and you only have top pair), make this a simple fold.He might be bluffing, but I think your up against a monster, my bet would be pocket aces, he flopped top set. With his betting pattern it's the only hand that makes sense.- Called on the flop,(field was already down to 1, and he wanted more action)- Checked to the raiser on the flop(standard move)- Slow played on the turn(he probably felt he was way ahead)- Over bet on the river(to induce a call)

If you're gonna talk about pot odds you might also want to consider the odds of him have AA....exactly 989:1 are the odds of him having exactly AA as there is only one way for him to have it among the 45 remaining unseen cards.How often does a typical player smooth call a preflop raise with the nuts out of position? (I'm not saying it never happens, but play the odds here)...the vast majority of people will reraise with AA here, and if they are going to smooth call the vast majority of the time they do it in position, not out of position.How often does a typical player check/call with top set when there are two spades AND 789 on the board?What does he think you have where he's not worried about a flush draw or a straight draw?There are 14 hands that beat you on the turn...a typical player either leads or check/raises all of them, including AA.Are there exceptions...yes....does a typical player ALWAYS do it...no...but often enough (like 90%) to be confident in my assessment.You are right about one thing...he's either bluffing or has a monster (set of sevens being the worst possible made hand he has, if it's not a bluff). I've seen no reason to think it's a monster.

[bear187 0]

I think it's slightly pointless to even begin answering this question. The notion that we know 'nothing' about this player is unrealistic. As someone pointed out earlier, how they look, how they bet, their actions before betting, etc., would all have to be taken into consideration before making a decision. With no information on the player at all other than his bets, I think this is an easy fold. It's definitely not worth crippling yourself over TPTK.

[shpaget 0]

For this question I am assuming the following:1. If we don't know ANYTHING about our opponent, our opponent doesn't know ANYTHING about us

It depends on why we don't know anything...did we/he just arrive at the table, or have we not been paying attention...and, even if we did just arrive, if "us" is Daniel Negreanu, rather than Shpaget, then the assumption is flawed.2. If our opponent has made it 8 hours into a $10,000 buy-in tournament, he knows a little something about poker.Like Tiffany Williamson? How many times have you seen a WPT final table and wondered how on Earth one or two guys got there? Huge assumption, again, especially if we haven't been there to see his play....maybe he likes Phil Hellmuth and only got there 15 minutes ago.1. First and foremost, I have plenty of chips to survive. I may not be a huge stack right now, but not worth risking it on this hand.Actually, your M is now under 12...and the next level (which may be an hour away or 5 minutes away) your M will drop to 7ish....it's not panic time, but I wouldn't be too comfy.2. I haven't slowplayed this hand to try and win more chips. IMO, I've just played it poorly, so no reason to possibly punish myself more.Not a bad thought - but consider how your poor play may affect his perception of your holdings. What he has is nice to know...what he thinks you have is paramount.3. I have no reason to believe it is a bluff. If BB decided to play with 10-J, then he/she has played this hand exactly as I would expect.You have no reason to think he's strong...I disagree that TJ plays like this, but if it does it is the ONLY hand that does...and I think TJ usually/typically bets the turn to a. protect the flush and b. extract some value....if he has TJ, he's more likely to get you to call an all-in on the turn with one card to come than on the river with no redraws.4. his/her chip stack indicates that he/she may be a tight player who might not bet the turn with trips even though it should be bet.It also indicates that he may be laggy and has stabbed at some pots and got caught, or he's just been cold-decked, or whatever...maybe he had 20000 four hands ago and got rivered by a one-outer, and now he's steaming...his stack size is meaningless if you know anything about him.

I think it's slightly pointless to even begin answering this question. The notion that we know 'nothing' about this player is unrealistic. As someone pointed out earlier, how they look, how they bet, their actions before betting, etc., would all have to be taken into consideration before making a decision. With no information on the player at all other than his bets, I think this is an easy fold. It's definitely not worth crippling yourself over TPTK.

That's the key to this question, is following through on a read based on betting pattern.Tells are nice.TPTK is nice...or not.Player history is nice.But in the end, if you can translate a betting pattern you are further ahead of 95% of the players out there.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I think it's slightly pointless to even begin answering this question. The notion that we know 'nothing' about this player is unrealistic. As someone pointed out earlier, how they look, how they bet, their actions before betting, etc., would all have to be taken into consideration before making a decision. With no information on the player at all other than his bets, I think this is an easy fold. It's definitely not worth crippling yourself over TPTK.

It is reasable to assume that you know nothing.You might have just sat down after your table broke. You could've been unracking your chips as the cards were dealt. You might not have even looked aroudn the table yet.We can try and assume a few things about the player at first glance, but we really don't know anything about him at all, and that is fairly standard.The bolded statement is what I think is the most important part of all of the discussion on the hand. If we knew more, things might be different. I just let this one go.

maybe he likes Phil Hellmuth and only got there 15 minutes ago.

Sweet.

[DB10-2 0]

there are any number of ridiculous two pair or straight hands that could have you beat, for essentially your tournament life. if the villain didn't flop two pair or a set, he got there (or to a straight) by the end and looked to be trapping. you have plenty of chips left such that if you lay down you can always come back; you have 1800 in this pot and are nowhere near committed. the alternative is going broke with top top as jamie gold says, which in this spot is just a bad play. fold.

[shpaget 0]

there are any number of ridiculous two pair or straight hands that could have you beat, for essentially your tournament life. if the villain didn't flop two pair or a set, he got there (or to a straight) by the end and looked to be trapping. you have plenty of chips left such that if you lay down you can always come back; you have 1800 in this pot and are nowhere near committed. the alternative is going broke with top top as jamie gold says, which in this spot is just a bad play. fold.

Oh, absolutely.73 has you killed.Now if you would care to explain to me why you think this guy has 73, I'm listening.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Oh, absolutely.73 has you killed.Now if you would care to explain to me why you think this guy has 73, I'm listening.

You're not willing to put him on anything but a bluff. There ARE tons of hands that he can have that beat us. 7-3 is one of them, however unlikely.Most of the people arguing for a fold (myself included) aren't saying that he can't be bluffing. We're saying that there's a really good chance that he isn't bluffing. If we're wrong and call when he's not bluffing (or even "bluffing" with a hand that beats us, but he might not think it does, which is possible) then we're out of the tournament where we called off a TON of chips on the river with only one pair. If he is bluffing, well good for him. Every good poker player gets bluffed. It's all about picking spots and I don't think this is a good spot to put our tourney on the line.The pot odds say that we have to be winning 59% of the time to call here if we're going to break even. I simply don't think that there is a range of hands that can account for 40% of his holdings, given the action, that we can beat on the river.I think that this whole hand illustrates a really good point. In a large tournament field, you're going to encounter numerous players that you've never seen or heard of before. Since you know nothing about them, it's probably best to play pots in a more traditional and up front manner in the beginning to get a "feel" for what they're trying to do. We got tricky in this hand and are now facing a bet for virtually all of our chips against a player who could be the biggest rock in the tournament, or a guy who plays every hand. That's such a huge range. I really think that you'd need to know something about this player if you're going to call off your stack in this spot. Since we don't know anything, I'm take my "workable" stack and try and rebuild after I fold to this river bet.

[shpaget 0]

You're not willing to put him on anything but a bluff. There ARE tons of hands that he can have that beat us. 7-3 is one of them, however unlikely.The pot odds say that we have to be winning 59% of the time to call here if we're going to break even. I simply don't think that there is a range of hands that can account for 40% of his holdings, given the action, that we can beat on the river.

Not exactly...I've clearly stated that he either has a monster (ie. 77,88,99,AA,TJ) or a bluff.His betting pattern has given me no reason to think he's got the monster, but if I am wrong, those are the only 5 hands he has.There are 18 hands, out of 90 total, that beat us.I confidently eliminate 73,83,93,33 and T6 has hands he folds pf, and/or on the turn. I think I'm generous leaving hands like 97 and 56 in the mix, but, I grant that there are 13 hands he COULD have that beat us....7 two pairs, 4 sets, two straights.Forgetting, at this point, that I think all of them bet, or check/raise the turn...let's say they don't.I believe there are AT LEAST 15 hands that he could bluff with, especially if he believes you are weak (or are afraid of the ace).TT, T9, T8, J9, Q9, K9, 66, 67, 55, KsQs, KsJs, KT, JJ, QsJs, QT. I also wouldn't rule out A6 or lower, though I find them less likely.Now, against that entire range of hands (exluding A2-A6), you are 57% to win.I haven't even yet considered hands like Ks8s, Js8s, and several others that are conceivable holdings here.And, btw - unless I'm missing something, pot odds say we need to be winning only 40% of the time to make this call correct. We need to call 5400 to win about 8300....pare down some of my hands, and add T6, and it's still correct (mathematically) to call.I know what you're saying, and most cases I follow it religiously...I just dont' buy it here.I'm simply getting tired of people saying, without really thinking about it, that a whole bunch of two pair hands beat you...yes, that's true...but if you can honestly conclude he has 97 or 93, and be right, you're a far better player than me and you don't need these boards. An utter donkey/newbie would bet allin with two pair here...a typical player will not.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I think I'm generous leaving hands like 97 and 56 in the mix, but, I grant that there are 13 hands he COULD have that beat us....7 two pairs, 4 sets, two straights.Forgetting, at this point, that I think all of them bet, or check/raise the turn...let's say they don't.I believe there are AT LEAST 15 hands that he could bluff with, especially if he believes you are weak (or are afraid of the ace).TT, T9, T8, J9, Q9, K9, 66, 67, 55, KsQs, KsJs, KT, JJ, QsJs, QT. I also wouldn't rule out A6 or lower, though I find them less likely.Now, against that entire range of hands (exluding A2-A6), you are 57% to win.And, btw - unless I'm missing something, pot odds say we need to be winning only 40% of the time to make this call correct. yes, that's true...but if you can honestly conclude he has 97 or 93, and be right, you're a far better player than me

You're right about the 40%, it was my mistake that I said things backwards.I think any 2 pair hand featuring the 3, aside from A3, is just not likely. Hands like 97 though should DEFINITELY be included, and since 56 made the 3rd nuts, that has to be included as well. Both are distinct possiblities the way the hand played out. He might CR with those hands or he might be super passive and just check call, alhtough being super passive doesn't correspond to him pushing the river.I think that the problem is, with a lot of the range that you assign (in italics above) he might be winning the hand and I think it's unlikely that he'd push. I'd think that he's more likely to check and call with any A, or even a hand like T9. That's just my opinion though. We're all guessing as to what this player's tendencies are and what he holds. I don't wanna guess as to whether I stay in the tournament or not. I'd like to have a good idea of my opponent's holdings before making a play.

[Royal_Tour 0]

cool, i just found out about this place. anyways, i didnt read the long amount of posts, i'm just gonna jump in on this one.withut any info on player and its only level 5. lets be honest, thats stil early, but villain sorta short stacked.Ok so we check the flop, and we make a weak bet on the turn.Villain didnt bet out the turn after we checked the flop. a sign he doesnt hold a pair. could hold nothing, could hold something big.I think any weak ace probably bets this.The turn card did bring a possible flush, and straight draw. 1000 into the pot is pretty cheap,and worth a call with a decent draw.villain is now sitting with 5400 @ level 5 and starting to think a little desperately.all draws missed on the river and he fires out all in. Thinking we were weak, the rag river only helps strengthen his case to steal this.I think villain knows he can push us off with a all in river bet.It doesntmake sense to not value bet this river if villain does have a big hand. I mean he is only getting called by something that probably beats him.putting us on a Big Ace or 2 pair is difficult, we played it odd.I say call, But i'm also not a WSOP tourney player, soo. i'm sure there is a level of thinking here that i'm missing

[shpaget 0]

You're right about the 40%, it was my mistake that I said things backwards.I think any 2 pair hand featuring the 3, aside from A3, is just not likely. Hands like 97 though should DEFINITELY be included, and since 56 made the 3rd nuts, that has to be included as well. Both are distinct possiblities the way the hand played out. He might CR with those hands or he might be super passive and just check call, alhtough being super passive doesn't correspond to him pushing the river.I think that the problem is, with a lot of the range that you assign (in italics above) he might be winning the hand and I think it's unlikely that he'd push. I'd think that he's more likely to check and call with any A, or even a hand like T9. That's just my opinion though. We're all guessing as to what this player's tendencies are and what he holds. I don't wanna guess as to whether I stay in the tournament or not. I'd like to have a good idea of my opponent's holdings before making a play.

All valid points - my issue about 97 and 56 are whether or not he calls the pf raise with them...but I've left them in.I eliminated A2-A6 from his bluffing hands for the reasons you state...JJ is definitely borderline, but I think someone will push with JJ if he puts you on QQ or KK or a weak ace - but that may not be a "typical" player.Same with a paired 9 or TT, but I do see your point on those - my thoughts are that with all the two pair hands he has here he will also check/call, or lead small, rather than push, because they are true mid-range hands...more so than T9.T9 can make a lot of better hands fold, 98 can't....98 gets called by a better hand, and folded by a worse hand (usually, as, case in point, I call here with AK, meaning 98 would gangrape me).

[Acid_Knight 2]

All valid points - my issue about 97 and 56 are whether or not he calls the pf raise with them...but I've left them in.I eliminated A2-A6 from his bluffing hands for the reasons you state...JJ is definitely borderline, but I think someone will push with JJ if he puts you on QQ or KK or a weak ace - but that may not be a "typical" player.Same with a paired 9 or TT, but I do see your point on those - my thoughts are that with all the two pair hands he has here he will also check/call, or lead small, rather than push, because they are true mid-range hands...more so than T9.T9 can make a lot of better hands fold, 98 can't....98 gets called by a better hand, and folded by a worse hand (usually, as, case in point, I call here with AK, meaning 98 would gangrape me).

I think my problem with this whole question is that there are just too many possibilities. For the record, I'd sooner call his raise with 79 or 56 than I would with A3, as I figure to get in less trouble with the first 2.When the river comes off and the hand has gone down so oddly, for me (being the unknown player here) personally, I'm going to value bet (read: NOT push) any 2 pair hand, any set or any straight. Since I really have no idea what my opponent is doing (when in fact they have AK) then I'm going to check and call any reasonable bet on the river if I think my hand can win, which basically is T9 or better on that board.Just because those are the choices that I'd make, doesn't mean that the real villain here is making those same choices.I honestly think that the odds that he's bluffing here align almost perfetly with the pot odds and make either calling or folding correct. The thing is, I think my aggregate equity is greater if I'm folding because I will still have a chance to win the tournament.

[Tigerlite 0]

You are dealt A K and raise from late position to 800. The player in the big blind calls you. The flop comes A 9 8 . The big blind checks to you and you decide to play tricky and check behind him. The turn is the 7 and your opponent checks again. This time you make a goofy little bet of 1000. Your opponent calls. The river comes the 3 and all of a sudden your opponent goes all in for 5400. You have 6300. The question is simple, without knowing ANYTHING about the player, what would you do? It is level five of a $10,000 buy in tournament.

Tough one. If this guy was trapping with two pair, this is a weird way to do it. He could have gotten a flush draw on the turn given that he checked and then called the raise. The river does absolutely nothing for him it would seem and wouldn't scare me given that there is no flush, although there is a str8 draw. He could have gotten his str8 on the turn and slow played it to the river. Any two pair beats us. A weak ace we can beat, but not much of anything else. I think I would fold not knowing anything about this player. Fold is my answer.

[Royal_Tour 0]

The thing is, I think my aggregate equity is greater if I'm folding because I will still have a chance to win the tournament.

I think many of us would be shittting our pants in this spot. how many of you make this call or fold if its a 30.00 MTT ??

[Acid_Knight 2]

I think many of us would be shittting our pants in this spot. how many of you make this call or fold if its a 30.00 MTT ??

I'm always trying to make the correct play.Yeah, it's different in a $10,000 buyin vs a $33 buyin, but it shouldn't be. If I feel strongly that I'm beaten, or just don't want to risk my tournament on a guess, then I'll fold regardless of the stakes.That being said, if this was a cash game, he gets called.

[shpaget 0]

I'm always trying to make the correct play.Yeah, it's different in a $10,000 buyin vs a $33 buyin, but it shouldn't be. If I feel strongly that I'm beaten, or just don't want to risk my tournament on a guess, then I'll fold regardless of the stakes.That being said, if this was a cash game, he gets called.

I agree with this...cash game is an easy call, IMO.And I will never call your fold in the tournament weak...it IS very close, and all the reasons for folding are valid.To me it simply comes down to your gut instinct and whether or not you believe him (and, saying that, if you're gonna follow your gut then the percentages don't matter)....Doyle Brunson didn't call Johnny Moss with J-high on the odds, nor did Josh Arieh fold his rivered flush on the odds. At the same time, we never hear about the jack-high calls that were wrong.