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$50 SnG bubble play.


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This can be worked out mathematically. That doesn't mean I can do it though.You can work out your EV if you fold by simply using the ratios of stacks sizes (maybe weighted a bit if you think you have an edge), to determine how much you win on average if you fold. Then, you can work out your equity vs an sb push (this depends on your read a bit obviously). My guess off the top of my head would be that you have around 70% equity. So then you wokr out what your equity is when you double up (you will almost always take first), and if that number is greater than the number if you just fold, then you should call.I was probalby stating the obvious above, but I formula may be given to calculate equity vs payout structure in Tournament Poker For Advanced Players. I'll have a look at it tomorrow. Right now, my gut says to call, but it's impossible to know for sure without the payout structure.

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btw: do you still think a fold is best after all this time?Nope, but I'm a better tournament player now.It is still closish.good luck.
I agree with this. It's close. Could go either way. Depends a lot on your abilities once you become 3 handed. If you are going to fold, then you are going to have to pick up a few small pots to make up for the chips you missed out on this hand. I think.
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Actually this is a fairly easy fold.You have 30% of the chips in play, so your tournament EV is roughly 30% of the prize pool. For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume that the prize pool is $100. Therefore, the EV of folding is $30.Let's say you're a 3:1 favourite against villains range. When you call and lose, you lose that $30. Even if we assume that when you call and win you will always win the tournamnet and 1st prize of $50, that only makes calling EV neutral with respect to folding.Here's the math: 1/4 * --30 + 3/4 * 50 = 30. And this assumption is, of course, way too generous. Conclusion: Folding is better than calling. Even with pocket kings or aces, this might well be a fold.I've always hated SNG's and I think now I know why. An idiotic form of poker.

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So if you fold you have 3400 chips left, then 3100 hundred left after your SB, and are in danger of being pushed around further by the big stack. Or you call and double up twice out of three and lose once. The twice you double up you leave yourself with a great chance of taking down the tourney.I think that even if you have a table full of donks, a call is still long term +ROI.Good luck :club:

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if we folds:CL: 6300 Us: 3700Other1: 2500Other2: 2500with blinds at 300/600 I'm thoriwng the TEQ equations out.We are way to suscepitable to finishing in 4th here.You just have to call sometimes, even in bubble situations.The low stacks are not low enough to fold here, that's the key.

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Actually this is a fairly easy fold.You have 30% of the chips in play, so your tournament EV is roughly 30% of the prize pool. For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume that the prize pool is $100. Therefore, the EV of folding is $30.
This is where your assumption goes wrong. The idea that %(chips) = %(prize equity) is way off here. The fact that the payout structure is relativelty flat already lowers our actual prize equity a little bit, and the fact that we're getting bullied off of hands like QQ lowers it even further. If we fold and continue to play for third like this, we will inevitably end up with a smaller stack after the next two eliminations and our equity will go something like this:1st: Chip leader 50%, Hero: 15%, Low stacks: 17.5% each2nd: Chip leader 30%, Hero: 20%, Low stacks: 25% each3rd: Chip leader 15%, Hero: 45%, Low stacks: 20% eachSo in a $10 SnG, that would make our actual equity something more like $7.5 + $6 + $9 = $22.50I don't feel like calculating our equity if we double up, but I'd guess that 70% of it is higher than that.
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You also make less money long term with a call.
Agreed, not to mention the fact this is an internet SNG where you can't get a physical read on your opponent. Plus, the raiser knows it's the bubble too. So he could be jamming a really great hand all-in hoping Smash catches something big. But I don't know how the raiser plays. He might be a Move In Specialist.If I have the BB covered in this scenario on the bubble, I'll often do this play on occasion with KK, AA, and AKs from the SB myself in hopes that someone wakes up with a hand like AJ in the BB and insta-call due to the fact they just look at their hand as being good or in a race as supposed to not wondering what's in MY hand.
You have 30% of the chips in play
He is crushed by either AA and KK.A-Q and lower/K-x suited could get lucky against him. Yes, you can call and be in good shape, but you'll get sucked out on 28% of the time. But you are not sure of this, although if I knew my opponent had AJ, I'd probably call.Really the best hand he would be up against would be JJ and lower, which is a possibility, but the price to find out could be too great here.If I had to guess, the SB has AK IMO.Hence why Smash should fold. If he had less chips, then I think he needs to draw his line in the sand and gamble. But he's a good player with good post flop play that doesn't need to get into races because he has chips to steal blinds with later. The other two stacks don't want to go broke. And he has them covered (not by much, but still covered). Pick on them for that.In that scenario, wait for the bubble to burst, and THEN you gamble.
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Call.It's not like you have a trememdous advantage over the two "short stacks".You have an M of 4.5...their M is just under 3.Yes, conventional wisdom says to get into the money and then start gambling....calling with QQ 4-handed is not "gambling", and the fact is you get into the money by putting your chips in play with the best hand.Conservatively speaking, 2/3 times you make this play you end up with 2/3 of the chips, get into the money almost 100% of the time, and win this thing more than half the time...conservatively speaking.If you fold, you're still fighting just to get into the money and, again, aren't very far from being the short stack yourself....I think it's fair to say that if you fold your chances of getting into the money aren't better than then 25% you're getting by just being one of four players.To ask another question - if either UTG or Button push, are you calling, simply because they can't bust you? They're pushing with the same range of hands SB is...and though they don't bust you they certainly cripple you.If the shortstacks, or one of them, were truly short (compared to you...eg. <1000), then I fold.

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To ask another question - if either UTG or Button push, are you calling, simply because they can't bust you?
I'd call just due to the fact that their range of hands is much more wider for an M of 3 - they are getting in desperation mode, and would probably push with a pair of 9's or A10s just to eat the blinds right there. I am folding just because, IMO, the SB's jamming all-in seems very shady to me.
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I'd call just due to the fact that their range of hands is much more wider for an M of 3 - they are getting in desperation mode, and would probably push with a pair of 9's or A10s just to eat the blinds right there. I am folding just because, IMO, the SB's jamming all-in seems very shady to me.
FYI - All three players are open-pushing with any ace, probably any king, any two broadway, any pair, and and handful of suited connectors.
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All three players are open-pushing with any ace, probably any king, any two broadway, any pair, and and handful of suited connectors.
For the two players with T2500 in chips, absolutely correct. But the one fly in the ointment here is the fact that this play was made by the chip leader right into the 2nd chip stack.The thing is, I have no idea how the tournament has gone. Did the chip leader get his stack by playing good, solid poker? Has he pushed with a pre-flop monster before (or AKs)? Has he been super aggressive in blind versus blind play (decreasing his range)? Has he been pushing on Smash alot before this? Did he get his chip lead by winning a race? Or did he donk his way into the chip lead and is the type of player who would look down at a pair of 5's in the SB and think it was good?It's not an easy fold. But if I had more information, the decision itself would be easier.
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Players that never call all in's are the easiest to play against at this point, imo. Now, I'm not getting crazy..but QQ is an all in calling hand for sure.
I think most of the times you are right, and most of the times I WOULD call.And as I noted, I would need more the information to come to a complete decision (although my initial reaction is fold). Don't get me wrong. QQ is a great hand. 4 handed, a terrific hand. But it is not the insta-call Holy Grail hand as T.J. Cloutier states (Ask Perry Friedman), and I know from experience.
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Don't get me wrong. QQ is a great hand. 4 handed, a terrific hand. But it is not the insta-call Holy Grail hand as T.J. Cloutier states (Ask Perry Friedman), and I know from experience.
Sure it is...unlesss you can incredibly shrink the SB's range of hands here, QQ is an insta-call in this situation.Cloutier is mostly talking from a full-table perspective, where QQ can be grossly overplayed by a lot of players, even pros.SB's range of hands is too great, and your stack-size in relation to the "short" stacks' sizes is too small.SB needs to be tighter, and shortstack needs to be shorter, for QQ to be a good fold here.Even though you're second in chips, you really aren't much greater than 25% to get into the money, which is simply your statistical share...in reality, the chip leader isn't much greater than 25% to get in...his M is <7.So, if you call, 1/3 of the time (at worst against his ranges) you come in fourth...if you fold, 1/4 of the time you come in fourth....in reality, you are probably 3:1 against his range, meaning if you call, you lose and come in fourth 1/4 of the time, and if you fold you come in fourth 1/4 of the time...so why wouldn't you call?If you call, at least 2/3 of the time you double up, and make money almost 100% of the time, and probably win 1/2, and possibly at least 3/4, of the time.If you fold, you make money 3/4 of the time, and probably win 1/4 of the time.I think the equity is in calling.
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for QQ to be a good fold here.
I never said it was a "good" fold. I'm just saying that folding here isn't totally wrong.
So, if you call, 1/3 of the time (at worst against his ranges) you come in fourth...if you fold, 1/4 of the time you come in fourth.If you call 2/3 of the time you double up, and make money almost 100% of the time, and probably win 1/2, and more likely 3/4, of the time.If you fold, you make money 3/4 of the time, and probably win 1/4 of the time.
That's very well put and it puts things in better perspective for me. MY point is, I always want to do my best to play the player. It's not always ONLY what is in my hand that dictates my decision.
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MY point is, I always want to do my best to play the player. It's not always ONLY what is in my hand that dictates my decision.
I agree, which is the purpose in putting him on a range of hands.Having said that, I'm not sure what pp is my cutoff here...JJ, TT, 99...not sure.Can't run pokerstove at work, but I'd basically like to be at least 2:1 favourite against his range.Fold:1/4 $01/4 $1001/4 $1501/4 $250Call at 2:14/12 $01/12 $1002/12 $1505/12 $250Call at 3:13/12 $01/12 $1002/12 $1506/12 $250Arbitrary of course, but if you fold, over 12 tourneys you earn $1500If you call at 2:1 against his range, you earn $1650.If you call at 3:1 against his range, you earn $1900.
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Shpaget, your range for the big stack's push here is so far off that it's not even funny. A good player will be pushing any pocket pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, and hands like Q9s and T9s as well. I might go as far as to push any face card as well as any suited connector 56 or higher. The fact that you're the big stack pushing into only the second stack should expand your range significantly since you know there are so few hands that he can call you with. I'd be much more likely to fear a push from one of the smaller stacks since they'd be pushing across more than one position (remember the push came from the SB), and they'd be worried about being eliminated if called.

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Shpaget, your range for the big stack's push here is so far off that it's not even funny. A good player will be pushing any pocket pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, and hands like Q9s and T9s as well. I might go as far as to push any face card as well as any suited connector 56 or higher. The fact that you're the big stack pushing into only the second stack should expand your range significantly since you know there are so few hands that he can call you with. I'd be much more likely to fear a push from one of the smaller stacks since they'd be pushing across more than one position (remember the push came from the SB), and they'd be worried about being eliminated if called.
wtf are you smoking???Go back and read my posts again...I've essentially stated exactly what you did, with the minor elimation of Q9s (and I actually agree with you there).And, implied (look it up if you're not sure of the meaning) in my guesstimate of SB's range is he is pushing with AT LEAST those hands.Jesus - I've been the biggest proponent of calling, and the loudest voice saying how large SB's range really is (especially in comparison to others assessments) and you're bitching because I forgot to mention Q9 suited?I've said you are at least 2:1 against SB's range, and quite likely 3:1 against his range...how much larger do you want me to make his range...I've come within a b.c.h. of saying that SB has a random hand!
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Even though you're second in chips, you really aren't much greater than 25% to get into the money, which is simply your statistical share...in reality, the chip leader isn't much greater than 25% to get in...his M is <7.If you call, at least 2/3 of the time you double up, and make money almost 100% of the time, and probably win 1/2, and possibly at least 3/4, of the time.
Isn't there an inconsistancy here? The CL is only 25% to make the money with an M of 7 but if we double to an M of 9 we're 100% to make the money and 75% to take first?People who advocate taking risks to take a chiplead in SNGs don't understand the simple fact that a chip lead doesn't mean much in SNGs unless it's a really massive 75% of the chips kind of chip lead.
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Isn't there an inconsistancy here? The CL is only 25% to make the money with an M of 7 but if we double to an M of 9 we're 100% to make the money and 75% to take first?People who advocate taking risks to take a chiplead in SNGs don't understand the simple fact that a chip lead doesn't mean much in SNGs unless it's a really massive 75% of the chips kind of chip lead.
No inconsistency:Scenario A...chipleader M7, you M4.5, "short" stacks, M3, M3..chipleader is barely double shortstack, only 50% more than 2nd.Scenaro B...you call and win...you M9, former chipleader M2, others M3, M3 and one has just posted BB. You have more than half the total chips now, and more than 3 times your closest opponent....you can lose two all-ins and still have chips.See the difference?Here's the bottom line - against SB's range of hands you are likely 3:1.That means if you call you come in fourth 1 out of 4 times.And if you fold you come in fourth 1 out of 4 times, because the blinds and chipstacks make everyone virtually equal....really, you have less than 27% of total chips...so, you're 1/4 to finish out of the money.So, if calling and folding have the same downside, calling is the clear play because it has the greater upside.
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