Big Draw Check Up

[SCS 0]

It sounded about right. Can you show your steps and we'll see where we're going different ways?

Ok, here goes.Preflop stack sizes are $35 for villian 1, we cover.Villian 2 raises to $2, we call as does villian 1. Pot is $6, villian now has $33.Flop we bet $4.5, villian 1 raises to $10 leaving $23 behind, villian 2 folds. At this point pot is $20.5 ($6 + $4.5 + $10).If we push we make the pot $49, assuming we get called. ($20.5 + $5.5 to call the raise + $23 to put villian all in). Basically, we're betting $23 to win a $49 pot.0.5677 x $49 = $27.82I think that's right.

[David_Nicoson 1]

Ok, here goes.Preflop stack sizes are $35 for villian 1, we cover.Villian 2 raises to $2, we call as does villian 1. Pot is $6, villian now has $33.Flop we bet $4.5, villian 1 raises to $10 leaving $23 behind, villian 2 folds. At this point pot is $20.5 ($6 + $4.5 + $10).

We're OK to here.

If we push we make the pot $49, assuming we get called. ($20.5 + $5.5 to call the raise + $23 to put villian all in). Basically, we're betting $23 to win a $49 pot.0.5677 x $49 = $27.82I think that's right.

I added our $23 to the $49 to make the total pot of $72. I think what you're doing here works if we're using odds notation (lose : win) instead of percentage of total pots ( wins : total pots).

[meservery 0]

The chances of hitting on both the turn and the river are big enough that we can't neglect that, so this calculation is off.E.g., 80% chance of rain today plus 80% chance of rain tomorrow is not 160% chance of rain on either day.

lol. maybe I should stay away from all this math stuff from now on.

[SCS 0]

We're OK to here.I added our $23 to the $49 to make the total pot of $72. I think what you're doing here works if we're using odds notation (lose : win) instead of percentage of total pots ( wins : total pots).

Ahhh.. got it. Wouldn't that make our ev even better though if we were to count the $23 that we bet into the pot?I think if we calculate our ev when villian folds then it would be correct to calculate our ev when he calls the way I did.If villian folds: $23 to win $26 (100%) ev = $26If villain calls: $23 to win $49 (56.77%) ev = $27.82Other way:If villian folds we win $49 (100%) ev = $49If villian calls we win $72 (56.77%) ev = $40.87But we don't count our bet when calculating our ev, do we?

[David_Nicoson 1]

Ahhh.. got it. Wouldn't that make our ev even better though if we were to count the $23 that we bet into the pot?

Well, we get 56.77% of our bet back, but it costs us 100% of bet. So we have to subtract the 23 from our pot equity.Bold is my comment.

I think if we calculate our ev when villian folds then it would be correct to calculate our ev when he calls the way I did.If villian folds: $23 to win $26 (100%) ev = $26If villain calls: $23 to win $49 (56.77%) ev = $27.82Other way:If villian folds we win $49 (100%) ev = $49 - 23 = 26If villian calls we win $72 (56.77%) ev = $40.87 - 23 = $17.87 But we don't count our bet when calculating our ev, do we?

Hmmm.What's our expected value if we bet 5,000 and he calls? Our pot equity is $5,700 and we gain on average $700, because we invested only 5000. That's our EV: 700.If we take 5000 x 56.77% = $2,838. I don't know what that is.

[Acid_Knight 2]

lol. maybe I should stay away from all this math stuff from now on.

EMBRACE THE POKER MATH!!!EMBRACE IT!!!!!!!!

[SCS 0]

Well, we get 56.77% of our bet back, but it costs us 100% of bet. So we have to subtract the 23 from our pot equity.Bold is my comment.Hmmm.What's our expected value if we bet 5,000 and he calls? Our pot equity is $5,700 and we gain on average $700, because we invested only 5000. That's our EV: 700.If we take 5000 x 56.77% = $2838. I don't know what that is.

I'm not sure how to explain why, but I'm pretty sure the first method that I used is the correct one. I'll look it up in one of Sklansky's books and see how he calculates it. It should be in one of those books. I'll probably be able to figure it out easier that way. Right now I'm kind of confusing myself.

[David_Nicoson 1]

I am a Sklansky dollar millionaire, yet I haven't had back to back winning sessions in 3 months.

Too bad you can trade Sklansky dollars for something valuable, like UB playchips.

[David_Nicoson 1]

I'm not sure how to explain why, but I'm pretty sure the first method that I used is the correct one. I'll look it up in one of Sklansky's books and see how he calculates it. It should be in one of those books. I'll probably be able to figure it out easier that way. Right now I'm kind of confusing myself.

The Miller/Sklanksy style computation would be like this:EV = (Winning expectation) - (losing expectation)EV = (0.5677)($49) - (1-0.5677) ($23) = $27.81 - $9.94 = $17.87

[Acid_Knight 2]

Too bad you can trade Sklansky dollars for something valuable, like UB playchips.

I have like 12 million play chips on FT.

[SCS 0]

The Miller/Sklanksy style computation would be like this:EV = (Winning expectation) - (losing expectation)EV = (0.5677)($49) - (1-0.5677) ($23) = $27.81 - $9.94 = $17.87

Yeah, this is right. I was forgetting to subtract the times we lose.

[David_Nicoson 1]

I have like 12 million play chips on FT.

I wonder what the UB to FT exchange rate is? I have 5 million there.