Big Draw Check Up

[linkwood 0]

The setting:Just started a cash game (.25/.50 blinds), 3 people in so far. We are actually continuing a game that we started before we broke for a short tournament. The cast:Villian 1 (stack ~35) - I've played a lot with this player, mostly heads up. He's tricky, loose, and aggressive, but sometimes he can be a calling station. He goes with his gut a lot of times without thinking about all of the possibilities. He's right enough of the time to convince him that he has good instincts. But most of the times these plays make no sense. He has been a big winner in our recent games, but is down in this one. Oh yeah, and he's also milding intoxicated. Villian 2 (stack ~50) - This is my wife. She's a solid TAG player with a lot of tools in her arsenal. Hero (stack ~80) - Both players know me as LAGish. I have been known to bluff though, although I very rarely do so with air.The plot:Villian 2 raises to 2, Hero calls with 5 3 , Villian 1 calls. Pot: 6Flop - A 6 4 Hero bets 4.5, Villian 1 raises to 10, Villian 2 folds, Hero?The villian would probably just call with a flush draw with the pf raiser behind, but would definitely raise an ace here, and all aces are in his range. He would also raise with two pair or better. If I just call and hit my straight, its very likely I'm getting paid, unless he has an exceptionally weak ace. If I call and hit my flush the chances of me getting paid are probably 50/50. There is also potentially some fold equity, but he is known to make "big calls". Do you call or push here?

[Snamuh 0]

Put him all-in.

[CBass1724 1]

Put him all-in.

[Balloon guy 158]

Were more people coming to play in this game? I mean otherwise it's you and your wife against someone else, since your wife will demand your winnings and you know she aint sharing, you are never going to beat this game.The hand, raise all in works for me.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Find the biggest shovel that you can and use it to get your chips into the pot.

[meservery 0]

Were more people coming to play in this game? I mean otherwise it's you and your wife against someone else, since your wife will demand your winnings and you know she aint sharing, you are never going to beat this game.

I'd just like to add, TTIWWP.Oh yeah, push.

[Sefaje 0]

Were more people coming to play in this game? I mean otherwise it's you and your wife against someone else, since your wife will demand your winnings and you know she aint sharing, you are never going to beat this game.

lol

[linkwood 0]

Were more people coming to play in this game? I mean otherwise it's you and your wife against someone else, since your wife will demand your winnings and you know she aint sharing, you are never going to beat this game.The hand, raise all in works for me.

hahahaha yes, more were coming.

[linkwood 0]

Seeing as how this was an obvious to everyone else as it was to me, I'll end it here. I did push, he thought and called with.....10s6c. I bricked out, and said nice call, he turned over his hand and I just sat there in amazement. nh sir. :icon_eh:In all honesty though, I question the play because I've recently come to the conclusion that he has a very bad read of me which leads him to make some really bad calls, which, unfortunately, work out a reasonable amount of the time. So i'm going to change the way I play him and go into a never bluff/value bet mode.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Seeing as how this was an obvious to everyone else as it was to me, I'll end it here. I did push, he thought and called with.....10s6c. I bricked out, and said nice call, he turned over his hand and I just sat there in amazement. nh sir. :icon_eh:In all honesty though, I question the play because I've recently come to the conclusion that he has a very bad read of me which leads him to make some really bad calls, which, unfortunately, work out a reasonable amount of the time. So i'm going to change the way I play him and go into a never bluff/value bet mode.

You want him making this call 100% of the time. You should never change how you played this hand. If he's a calling station (which he appears to be) then you NEVER bluff him and ALWAYS value bet him. That's how you play against calling stations.

[meservery 0]

You're 63.8% to win this hand after all the money goes in.

[linkwood 0]

You're 63.8% to win this hand after all the money goes in.

Really? I figured it was a coin flip, with me a slight favorite.

[linkwood 0]

You want him making this call 100% of the time. You should never change how you played this hand. If he's a calling station (which he appears to be) then you NEVER bluff him and ALWAYS value bet him. That's how you play against calling stations.

Just so I'm clear, if we get it in on the flop its a virtual coin flip, with me the slight favorite (I think), do I really want him to call me every time in that situation? Would I rather have fold equity or is the fact that I'm a favorite enough to justify getting it all in even if I know its likely he'll call?

[docnuclear 0]

Just so I'm clear, if we get it in on the flop its a virtual coin flip, with me the slight favorite (I think), do I really want him to call me every time in that situation? Would I rather have fold equity or is the fact that I'm a favorite enough to justify getting it all in even if I know its likely he'll call?[/quotewell to me if you're the favourite it is a value bet!!

[Acid_Knight 2]

Just so I'm clear, if we get it in on the flop its a virtual coin flip, with me the slight favorite (I think), do I really want him to call me every time in that situation? Would I rather have fold equity or is the fact that I'm a favorite enough to justify getting it all in even if I know its likely he'll call?

In a pure vaccuum, you want him putting all of his chips in when you're a 50.01% favorite to his 49.99% becuase making that play over and over has a positive expectation for you. In this case, you're a decent favorite over his hand. Yes, you only have 5 high now, but if you improve your hand on the turn to one that is beating his, then he's drawing dead (unless he makes a 2nd pair when you make a flush) where if he improves his hand on the turn, you're never drawing dead on the river. That is the concept that makes you a bigger favorite here.If it were a true 50/50 proposition, you obviously would want him to fold because then you could win the dead money everytime (let's say it's $10) so your EV is +$10, but if he calls everytime in a 50/50 proposition, then your EV gets halved to +$5. Since if it were truly 50/50, then any chips that you put into the pot over an infinite number of trials would come back to you and therefore you'd only get half of the dead money in the pot.In this situation, you want him calling every single time.

[meservery 0]

Really? I figured it was a coin flip, with me a slight favorite.

Any 2, 7, or diamond gives you a winner. Nine diamonds, three 2s, three 7s.15/47*2 = .638Although, he could hit runner runner fullhouse so you're a little less than 63.8%... but whatever.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Any 2, 7, or diamond gives you a winner. Nine diamonds, three 2s, three 7s.15/47*2 = .638Although, he could hit runner runner fullhouse so you're a little less than 63.8%... but whatever.

According to cardplayer's pot odds dohickey, Mr. Linkwood will win this hand 56.77% of the time compared to his opponent's 43.23%.Sounds like a nice solid advantage to me!

[meservery 0]

According to cardplayer's pot odds dohickey, Mr. Linkwood will win this hand 56.77% of the time compared to his opponent's 43.23%.Sounds like a nice solid advantage to me!

Sounds more like I'm way overplaying my big draws.

[David_Nicoson 1]

In a pure vaccuum, you want him putting all of his chips in when you're a 50.01% favorite to his 49.99% becuase making that play over and over has a positive expectation for you. In this case, you're a decent favorite over his hand. Yes, you only have 5 high now, but if you improve your hand on the turn to one that is beating his, then he's drawing dead (unless he makes a 2nd pair when you make a flush) where if he improves his hand on the turn, you're never drawing dead on the river. That is the concept that makes you a bigger favorite here.If it were a true 50/50 proposition, you obviously would want him to fold because then you could win the dead money everytime (let's say it's $10) so your EV is +$10, but if he calls everytime in a 50/50 proposition, then your EV gets halved to +$5. Since if it were truly 50/50, then any chips that you put into the pot over an infinite number of trials would come back to you and therefore you'd only get half of the dead money in the pot.In this situation, you want him calling every single time.

We're better off here if the villain folds for the same reason. If his stack is twice as big, then we want him to call our all-in. Otherwise, we're better off collecting the dead money.

[David_Nicoson 1]

Any 2, 7, or diamond gives you a winner. Nine diamonds, three 2s, three 7s.15/47*2 = .638Although, he could hit runner runner fullhouse so you're a little less than 63.8%... but whatever.

The chances of hitting on both the turn and the river are big enough that we can't neglect that, so this calculation is off.E.g., 80% chance of rain today plus 80% chance of rain tomorrow is not 160% chance of rain on either day.

[David_Nicoson 1]

Just so I'm clear, if we get it in on the flop its a virtual coin flip, with me the slight favorite (I think), do I really want him to call me every time in that situation? Would I rather have fold equity or is the fact that I'm a favorite enough to justify getting it all in even if I know its likely he'll call?

You want him to fold.You win the 26 outright if he folds.EV (folding) = money in the pot = $26EV (calling) = (chance of winning the pot) (pot size) - raise investment = 0.5677 x (35 x 2 +2) - (35 - 12) = $17.87$83 more to bet is the point at which we are indifferent to our villain calling or folding, if my math is right in this old post.Edit: Killed roaming $3. Added $2 from other villain.

[SCS 0]

You want him to fold.You win the 26 outright if he folds.EV (folding) = money in the pot = $26EV (calling) = (chance of winning the pot) (pot size) - raise investment = 0.5677 x (35 x 2 ) - (35 - 12 - 3) = $19.73$83 more to bet is the point at which we are indifferent to our villain calling or folding, if my math is right in this old post.

My math might be wrong here but if we push here we are investing $23 to win $49 if villain calls making our ev $27.82.Like I said, I might be completely off here.

[David_Nicoson 1]

My math might be wrong here but if we push here we are investing $23 to win $49 if villain calls making our ev $27.82.Like I said, I might be completely off here.

I'm not sure what that 3 is doing there in my calculation now. Is the 0.5677 right? I didn't check that.

[SCS 0]

I'm not sure what that 3 is doing there in my calculation now. Is the 0.5677 right? I didn't check that.

I assumed the 0.5677 is correct. It's what Acid_Knight got off of the Cardplayer odds calculator.

[David_Nicoson 1]

I assumed the 0.5677 is correct. It's what Acid_Knight got off of the Cardplayer odds calculator.

It sounded about right. Can you show your steps and we'll see where we're going different ways?