Variance

[Acid_Knight 2]

Disclaimer: If you're looking for an actual poker hand, this isn't the post for you.Ok, so here's the deal. I had taken a few months off from playing cards (Oct 2006-Dec 2006) and I came back in full force in January. I won an abnormal amount of money because I felt that although I played well, people decided to keep trying to give me more money. I was playing 5/10 and 10/20 NL at the Bellagio only and it was a good month.When February started, I had a couple of bad days at 10/20 and I stopped doing that. I continued to run bad playing 5/10 and I kind of stopped playing at the Bellagio with any kind of regularity.One of my buddies out here who plays with me regularly swears that he's never seen anything like it. I haven't really strung together back to back winning sessions in 3 months. If I didn't have someone else to verify that I am indeed playing well, then I would never post something like this.I know that it's variance and all, but a three month downswing? The luck HAS to even out somewhere in there, but it's not. I am getting increasingly frustrated with dropping limits and still not even having the cards break even for me. The combination of coolers and bad beats cannot be offset by any number of good solid plays that I try to make.I have played 2/5 and even 1/2, which I hate because it's like showdown poker against players that I can't read. I have taken weeks off at a time and nothing is helping.I mean, you guys all read my advice and you probably assume that I'm a pretty decent player and everything. I'm really running out of ideas here because I've tried different casinos, I've tried playing tighter, tried playing my normal crazy game and nothing is working. I put money on the table and it winds up in someone else's hands.Maybe I'm just looking for more people to tell me that I just gotta ride it out, but I don't know. Three months seems too long to be running this badly...I'm just super frustrated and I'm trying to fix this in time for the series.

[cwik 0]

tough times.you seem to have tried most of the standard variance fixes. the only thing I can think of is maybe try the online games.

[Zach6668 513]

I can imagine 3 months is really nothing for live play.I went on a ~2 month swing at SH LHE where I couldn't put in a single winning day without bonus/rb, like seriously, maybe 1 or 2 other the whole span. I probably played 20-30k hands over that stretch, as I didn't play as much as I normally would have if I wasn't scared shitless of playing.My point is this. How many hands do you think you play over 3 months of live poker? Say you played 6 hours sessions, 5 times a week, 30 hands/hour, you're looking at 12 weeks, 60 sessions, 360 hours, 10800 hands. That's certainly a possible downswing, and I doubt you even played that many hands, did you?It's not normal, especially for someone who has proven to be a winning player, and especially in games which are probably pretty soft (2/5 NL live, 5/10 NL live), but it's certainly possible.I know exactly what you are going through. You start to question whether or not you've just been lucky for all these years, etc. It really takes a LOT out of you psychologically. I don't really know what to tell you though. I HATE when people say "take a break" because that obv has no effect on the way the cards fall. I spent a lot of time examining my stats and my hands (easier with online play), and found a few leaks, and found spots to improve my game, and came back and finally had a decent run near the middle of April.Basically, just make sure you're still playing good poker, because downswings like this will cause people to play scared poker, and can definitely lead to some leaks, and just keep plugging away, make sure you're rolled for whatever level you play, obv, but a winning player should be able to fight through these types of downswings.Good luck, and I definitely hope you get back on track by June 15th, so I can see your game in action when I'm down in Vegas.- Zach

[Snamuh 0]

You are a good player (and your strategy responses prove it), you just need to get back on track. Like Zach said, it's certainly possible, especially only over 10k hands or so.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I HATE when people say "take a break" because that obv has no effect on the way the cards fall. I spent a lot of time examining my stats and my hands (easier with online play), and found a few leaks, and found spots to improve my game, and came back and finally had a decent run near the middle of April.

This is the thing that bothers me the most. This isn't something that should "work itself out" because as far as I can tell (and outside observers who watch me as well) it's not something that I am doing and the cards can change instantaeously any second.When I was playing 5/10 full bore like a semi-retarded maniac, there were some leaks in the game becuase of the style I played. Call it advertising or whatever you want, but I made it a point to be involved in as many pots as I could when I had a reasonable hand (T8o) and position (on the preflop raiser) which certainly got expensive if I wasn't hitting flops.Just because I like to play like that, doesn't mean that I don't know how to tighten up my game without becoming predictable.One of my friends just suggested the following things-Play limit for a bit (this is a recycled sugggestion that I gave him a while back, which I am not following obv)-Play some tournaments-Start playing online again.

[Zach6668 513]

-Play limit for a bit (this is a recycled sugggestion that I gave him a while back, which I am not following obv)

Obv, minbet isn't even real pokar.*****************So, anyways, you think it's something more like you're not adapting well to the play of a 1/2, 2/5 game? That is certainly a possibility as well. Hell, I go from the tight-aggro-sometimes weak Crypto games, to the loose-passive AP games, I get blown out of the water before I adapt to the showdown monkeys...I'm obv not an NL expert, while I know the game, I don't know players' tendencies, so I can't help with any adjustments, so I'm not really sure what to tell you myself.

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

I respect your analysis and input on this Forum, so please don't take this the wrong way. I think you may have developed a "losing mentality". You're expecting to lose and so you do. Being good and playing well at the game isn't enough. Especially live. While you use the term "variance", like so many losing players, you refuse to really understand it. Again, I am just observing from this thread and my own experience. You are starting to doubt it is just variance - and are asking "why me?" It can only be two things: variance or leaks - the "Poker Gods" are not out to get you. If you really embraced "variance" you wouldn't be looking for help. It sounds to me like you intuitively know you have leaks, but just don't know how to do the introspection to plug them. Keep being BRUTALLY honest with yourself, and I am guessing you will find where you are throwing good money after bad or other leaks.Playing online and keeping (and reviewing) detailed notes may help.

[Naismith 0]

I made it a point to be involved in as many pots as I could when I had a reasonable hand (T8o)...

See? And everyone criticized me for playing T8 in my donkalicious thread!

...and position (on the preflop raiser)

Ignore this part.As for your problem, have you considered switching games complete for a while, just in case it's a mindset thing? Maybe play PLO or O8 and really see some donktastic action?

[antistuff 0]

if i win more and lose less than my opponents would in the same situation i will win eventuallyfor some reason meditating and reflecting on that idea when everything is going wrong really helps me. your millage may vary.

[RiscaRod 0]

I think a serious break from the game will do the world of good. A number of times I have had incredibly bad runs that do not seem to end no matter how I played. The problem with these bad runs is that they do actually effect how you play which makes your play worse and so on, its a bit of a downward spiral. Take some time off until poker is at the back of your mind and the bad run is almost forgotten about. Then when you come back to the game start afresh and hopefully you will see some changes.

[CobaltBlue 662]

AK, as Zach was saying, the longterm in live play is incredibly long compared to online. So hard to get in the same amount of hands. So that's my recommendation...switch to online for a while.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I respect your analysis and input on this Forum, so please don't take this the wrong way. I think you may have developed a "losing mentality". You're expecting to lose and so you do. Being good and playing well at the game isn't enough. Especially live. While you use the term "variance", like so many losing players, you refuse to really understand it. Again, I am just observing from this thread and my own experience. You are starting to doubt it is just variance - and are asking "why me?" It can only be two things: variance or leaks - the "Poker Gods" are not out to get you. If you really embraced "variance" you wouldn't be looking for help. It sounds to me like you intuitively know you have leaks, but just don't know how to do the introspection to plug them. Keep being BRUTALLY honest with yourself, and I am guessing you will find where you are throwing good money after bad or other leaks.Playing online and keeping (and reviewing) detailed notes may help.

I actually never go to play poker if I feel like I'm not gonna be winning. A "losing mentality" is not part of the equation here. Even when I sat down yesterday, got stacked on the first hand I played (3rd overall) with a set over set, I just laughed, said "that's about standard," reloaded, and kept playing well. I know exactly what variance is, but after months of things going wrong and me still playing well, I just have to ask if there is something that I can try and change to help this along. It's natural to try and see if there is something you can change, even though you know that there probably isn't because variance is just the cards failing to cooperate.I'd post some of the hands that I've been losing here, but there is no point. They are such standard coolers and hands that play themselves (with me losing at the end) that it's obviously variance since there is no other way to play the hands.To answer Zach's other question, it's not really a problem of adjusting to the different games. I do have a problem playing 1/2 because I basically have to make the best hand everytime and pound the crap out of it when I do. The players are difficult to read because you can't tell if tehy even know what they are doing. When i'm playing 2/5, for the most part the styles aren't terribly different so there's not much adjustment to be made there.I will try and find some omaha or omaha 8/ob games in town becuase i like playing those, they're limit games, and they're lower stakes, all of which should be good things for me.

[David_Nicoson 1]

See? And everyone criticized me for playing T8 in my donkalicious thread!

He's playing T8 with position against the raiser.Your hand is a mixed bag. The raiser has position on you but you have good relative position. You check, the PFR c-bets, the field acts on the c-bet, then you act. If the PFR is on the button, then your relative position is crap. The field checks to the raiser, the PFR c-bets, then you act without knowing much about the callers' hands.Ideally, you're on the button with a raiser in the blinds so that you have good absolute and relative position.(Thank Ciaffone for this concept.)

[David_Nicoson 1]

I will try and find some omaha or omaha 8/ob games in town becuase i like playing those, they're limit games, and they're lower stakes, all of which should be good things for me.

I find limit games far more frustrating, so I wouldn't go there myself if I was on the edge emotionally.There's just nothing worse than being stuck a few buy-ins in a limit game when you know there's no way you'll ever get even.If you don't mind my asking, is poker your main or only income?

[Zach6668 513]

I find limit games far more frustrating, so I wouldn't go there myself if I was on the edge emotionally.There's just nothing worse than being stuck a few buy-ins in a limit game when you know there's no way you'll ever get even.

I'm a master of getting unstuck before I quit.Graphical evidence (all 2/4 or 3/6):I realize I'm missing the point, and this is completely irrelevent to live play.kthx.

[No_Neck 0]

last week I played 15k hands and lost 9 buyins, I don't think I played perfectly on all of them granted but I think I play pretty well. I was kind of worried until we had a live game and I got set over set and someone hit a gutshot after calling off 30% of his stack to hit it...Sometimes there is nothing you can do...... sorry Acid nothing you can do but keep getting kicked in the nuts till it evens out.

[Acid_Knight 2]

If you don't mind my asking, is poker your main or only income?

No, I'm actually a structural engineer and I work 40+ hours a week. Poker is a hobby which until recently was nicely supplementing my income.I agree with you 100% on the frustrating aspects of limit poker. I also contend that much of the reason that I succeed at poker is becuase I am creative and I can effetively read people which means that I make better decisions than they do. At LHE, my creativity is stifled and the reading of people is trumped by the math involved in the hand. That being said, it's a change of pace and I'm going to consider it.

[dms26 3]

No, I'm actually a structural engineer and I work 40+ hours a week. Poker is a hobby which until recently was nicely supplementing my income.I agree with you 100% on the frustrating aspects of limit poker. I also contend that much of the reason that I succeed at poker is becuase I am creative and I can effetively read people which means that I make better decisions than they do. At LHE, my creativity is stifled and the reading of people is trumped by the math involved in the hand. That being said, it's a change of pace and I'm going to consider it.

Don't do it to yourself, limit is what drove me to NL. I'm sure there are good pros who have had worse than 3 month downswings, hopefully the cards will balance out soon. With the WSOP coming up there are going to be an endless supply of people throwing away paychecks for 6 weeks. (myself included) I just had my first winning session in 3 weeks last weekend.Now repeat after me: I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and gosh darnit people like me.

[Zach6668 513]

Limited hold them isn't even pokar.

[tskillz187 0]

No advice at all. Sometimes you can't will yourself to win that's why poker is so frustrating. There's nothing really to say other than just believing it will even out and having people analyze your game. You say that it's just and endless amount of coolers and bad beats and I believe you. So it just sucks, but there really is a large amount of luck in this game and it can hold you down for apparently a very long time.

[Acid_Knight 2]

You say that it's just and endless amount of coolers and bad beats and I believe you. So it just sucks, but there really is a large amount of luck in this game and it can hold you down for apparently a very long time.

Poker is a skill game dude, you didn't know that?My opponents are just more skilled at catching cards to beat me than I am at catching the cards to beat them

[No_Neck 0]

Poker is a skill game dude, you didn't know that?My opponents are just more skilled at catching cards to beat me than I am at catching the cards to beat them

playing 2/4 limit and getting smashed at the table is always fun.

[Jordan 1]

it's live poker...i couldn't imagine trying to grind live poker...downswings would suck cause they could last for months, like yours..How many hands do you get live? Lets say you play 40hr/week and avg ~35 hands a hour that's only 1.4k hands...which is laughable. Multiply that by 3.5 and you are getting between 4.5k and 5k hands a month...which is just stupid.If you play online you'll often play 5k hands in a week, or less...depending on your volume of course..but for grinders, 5k is nothing....so your variance really isn't anything to be surprised about. Yes, you are a good player, but you're only playing what, maybe 5k hands a month...and if we want to be really giving, 8k atttttttttt the most, right?It sux but it happens. I've gone thru downswings and it's not fun at all..but mine were online and they "happen" differently. Live would really drive me nuts cause not winning for 3 months would be horrible...but then again, pick your poison carefully.- Jordan

[mtdesmoines 3]

Disclaimer: If you're looking for an actual poker hand, this isn't the post for you.Ok, so here's the deal. I had taken a few months off from playing cards (Oct 2006-Dec 2006) and I came back in full force in January. I won an abnormal amount of money because I felt that although I played well, people decided to keep trying to give me more money. I was playing 5/10 and 10/20 NL at the Bellagio only and it was a good month.When February started, I had a couple of bad days at 10/20 and I stopped doing that. I continued to run bad playing 5/10 and I kind of stopped playing at the Bellagio with any kind of regularity.One of my buddies out here who plays with me regularly swears that he's never seen anything like it. I haven't really strung together back to back winning sessions in 3 months. If I didn't have someone else to verify that I am indeed playing well, then I would never post something like this.I know that it's variance and all, but a three month downswing? The luck HAS to even out somewhere in there, but it's not. I am getting increasingly frustrated with dropping limits and still not even having the cards break even for me. The combination of coolers and bad beats cannot be offset by any number of good solid plays that I try to make.I have played 2/5 and even 1/2, which I hate because it's like showdown poker against players that I can't read. I have taken weeks off at a time and nothing is helping.I mean, you guys all read my advice and you probably assume that I'm a pretty decent player and everything. I'm really running out of ideas here because I've tried different casinos, I've tried playing tighter, tried playing my normal crazy game and nothing is working. I put money on the table and it winds up in someone else's hands.Maybe I'm just looking for more people to tell me that I just gotta ride it out, but I don't know. Three months seems too long to be running this badly...I'm just super frustrated and I'm trying to fix this in time for the series.

Stop calling PF raises. Only raise or fold. And if you can't raise, it's a fold. (I know -- BORING)Oh, and I went through downswings in Feb/Mar 07 and July/Aug 06. About 4 months out of every 12. Which, if you figure you're putting people in bad around 60-40, figures out about right. Downswings suck.

[Snamuh 0]

Stop calling PF raises. Only raise or fold. And if you can't raise, it's a fold. (I know -- BORING)

I don't agree with this. I would call PF raises with low pocket pairs entirely for set value, but I certainly wouldn't raise or fold them. I agree that with most premium hands, you should be raising, and that you should be folding subpar hands, but I don't like the "raise or fold" generalization.