Blind Vs Blind

[pokerfan1080 0]

BB's raise just wreaked of trying to steal here. When he bet that much on the flop, it seemed to solidify my initial thoughts.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Button (t7325)Hero (t3105)BB (t4880)UTG (t1279)UTG+1 (t2015)MP1 (t1265)MP2 (t1040)MP3 (t2430)CO (t3454)Preflop: Hero is SB with T, Q. 7 folds, Hero completes, BB raises to t250, Hero calls t200.Flop: (t500) 4, 4, 6(2 players)Hero checks, BB bets t500, Hero raises to t2855, all-in

[Zach6668 513]

Just curious, but is this play really necessary at this point in the tourney?Seems like a GIANT risk with little to no real return.

[simo_8ball 0]

Fold to the preflop raise.Check-fold the flop.I will make a pretty graph just for you.

[NEtwowilldo 0]

There was no need to make this play.

[pokerfan1080 0]

Just curious, but is this play really necessary at this point in the tourney?Seems like a GIANT risk with little to no real return.

Precisely why I post these hands. To find out.I've been playing really tight in these things, but not really gathering alot of chips early. I tend to get deep, but I tend to be on the short stack alot so I've been working on plays like this to gather more chips.Too aggressive?

[pokerfan1080 0]

Fold to the preflop raise.Check-fold the flop.I will make a pretty graph just for you.

That's usually my line in this spot.Trying to get too creative I guess.

[Zach6668 513]

Precisely why I post these hands. To find out.I've been playing really tight in these things, but not really gathering alot of chips early. I tend to get deep, but I tend to be on the short stack alot so I've been working on plays like this to gather more chips.Too aggressive?

I just think it's a risk-reward thing.An extra 600 chips or whatever now isn't going to make a huge difference down the road, and when you do get called, you're going to be way behind, and you lose your entire stack.

[pokerfan1080 0]

I just think it's a risk-reward thing.An extra 600 chips or whatever now isn't going to make a huge difference down the road, and when you do get called, you're going to be way behind, and you lose your entire stack.

Agreed, but what about how it affects my image?If I fold too much everyone will just raise me with any two to steal. Don't plays like this help my tight image some?

[Sid Simelia 0]

I'm not an expert or anything, just a break-even player so far, but you could minraise here and show the same amount of strength just about. Then you can still get away from it if he flopped a set or has an overpair.

[copernicus 0]

QTo is a lot stronger than it seems HU, given that (as most players know) Q7o is the average hand HU. ATo is a top 17% hand and deserves a raise preflop. Once its called, though, its value goes way down out of position unless you hit the flop (unless youre Robert Varkonyi and never miss a flop with QT). If BB calls PF a CB is probably called for against a paired/undercard board, but if he calls again give it up. If he raises PF get out also.

[simo_8ball 0]

If he calls, you have at most 6 outs, so you are at best 25%. Given that you will sometimes have only 3 outs, or be drawing almost dead, I think it is fair to say we are going to be less than 20% to win when called.Do you have >60% fold equity?Disclaimer: This is working purely on cEV.

[simo_8ball 0]

given that (as most players know) Q7o is the average hand HU.

In what way is Q7o the average hand?

[Zach6668 513]

Cop, the only thing that leads me to fold this preflop, rather than fight it out, is the fact that it's a 5x raise. The pot is going to inflated no matter what we do, and I'd rather stay out of an inflated pot like this with QTo OOP.

[copernicus 0]

Cop, the only thing that leads me to fold this preflop, rather than fight it out, is the fact that it's a 5x raise. The pot is going to inflated no matter what we do, and I'd rather stay out of an inflated pot like this with QTo OOP.

If he raises PF get out also

I think we agree.Simo...perhaps median is a better word? Otherwise im not sure what your question is. Hot and cold Q7o wins half and loses half of the time HU.

[simo_8ball 0]

Simo...perhaps median is a better word? Otherwise im not sure what your question is. Hot and cold Q7o wins half and loses half of the time HU.

I'm fairly sure it isn't an average hand, be it mean or median. It's showdown value is slightly above 51% against a random hand, and less than 40% of possible card combinations are ahead of it preflop.

[copernicus 0]

It's showdown value is slightly above 51% against a random hand.

Thats what "hot and cold" means, and thats what matters, not how many combinations are ahead or behind it.

[simo_8ball 0]

Thats what "hot and cold" means, and thats what matters, not how many combinations are ahead or behind it.

In that case, why is Q7o chosen as 'THE' average hand?

equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	50.013%	  47.85% 	02.17% 		4014522472 	181725692.00   { random }Hand 1: 	49.987%	  47.82% 	02.17% 		4012315744 	181725692.00   { J5s }

J5s is closer to 50-50, as are several other hands (22, 89s, J8o, etc).

[copernicus 0]

In that case, why is Q7o chosen as 'THE' average hand?

equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	50.013%	  47.85% 	02.17% 		4014522472 	181725692.00   { random }Hand 1: 	49.987%	  47.82% 	02.17% 		4012315744 	181725692.00   { J5s }

J5s is closer to 50-50, as are several other hands (22, 89s, J8o, etc).

Ask Sklansky

[simo_8ball 0]

Ask Sklansky

lolI've heard that Q7o is the 'average' or 'median' hand numerous times, but noone seems to have any real basis for it, other than it being somewhere near 50-50.

[AKProdigy 0]

Maybe the fact that 8 people folded before the SB results in more Q's, K's, A's being left in the deck theorhetically, and therefore Q7o is an average hand in this scenario? I don't know lol