Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Bodog 3/6 NLHE (5-handed)Cobalt $556Button $1053SB $167BB $223Cobalt is CO w/ A :club: 6 :D. SB hasn't been at the table very long, so no significant read.Pre-flop:1 fold, Cobalt raises to $20, 1 fold, SB calls, BB callsFlop ($60): 4 :D 8 :) 5 :D (3 players)SB checks, BB checks, Cobalt bets $36, SB raises to $72, 1 fold, Cobalt callsTurn ($204): 4 :D (2 players)SB goes all-in for $75, Cobalt calls

Link to post
Share on other sites

I understand you're shorthanded, but once he makes that bet on the flop, you gotta fold. You have zero implied odds becuase he has nothing in his stack. If you're gonna put your chips in, I'd rather see you push the flop. I mean, are you folding if a bad turn card comes off? The line you took is just a little weird for me.

Link to post
Share on other sites
I understand you're shorthanded, but once he makes that bet on the flop, you gotta fold. You have zero implied odds becuase he has nothing in his stack. If you're gonna put your chips in, I'd rather see you push the flop. I mean, are you folding if a bad turn card comes off? The line you took is just a little weird for me.
Assuming that we get the rest of his stack, we're getting 6.75-1 on the flop call. I read ~8 outs...which needs 4.5-1 to see a turn.
I mean, are you folding if a bad turn card comes off?
Absolutely.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Let me add that it wasn't a "comfortable" line at all. I certainly felt/feel like a donkey calling off money/playing a decently big pot with a (pretty weak) draw. That said, I do think there are points about the hand that are defensible.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Let me add that it wasn't a "comfortable" line at all. I certainly felt/feel like a donkey calling off money/playing a decently big pot with a (pretty weak) draw. That said, I do think there are points about the hand that are defensible.
Is it possible to be "priced in" to "drawing dead?"
Link to post
Share on other sites
Is it possible to be "priced in" to "drawing dead?"
Not according to Sklansky. If we're talking about metagame here, then it would do wonders for your image!Cobalt - The hand isn't like horribly butchered or anything. There are parts that you can defend, but overall I think playing any number of hands like this (yeah, 1 is a number :club: ) is a leak in your game.
Link to post
Share on other sites
Assuming that we get the rest of his stack, we're getting 6.75-1 on the flop call. I read ~8 outs...which needs 4.5-1 to see a turn.Absolutely.
I think 8 is a generous estimate. You could easily split with one of the 7's hitting, or be behind to 2-pr killing the A outs. The only sure thing is the backdoor flush draw, and you can't really count that in your 6.75:1 estimate, since you'd have to put in $111 to hit it, not just the $36 of the raise. And what if the 4 str8 hits and he folds to a bet? Maybe I'm way off, but its seems like you're playing around with the numbers to make the call work by overestimating outs and pot odds. You're obviously counting a spade on the turn as a "good" card, but now you're having to call another $75, still with no hand but A-high. You have odds to call and chase the flush on the turn in that case, but only because you put in the call on the flop. If you knew that spade would hit the turn sitting on the flop you would be getting ~2.25:1 (calling the $36+75 on turn to win $243) to hit your gutshot/FD in 1 card which is not quite enough.Granted its late on Friday afternoon, so the (correct) math may be eluding me, but it seems to me the easier way to handle this is to calculate your 2 card odds and outs and be done with it. I know there's a more complicated calculation you can do that factors in a fold to a complete blank on the turn, and maybe that's enough to make the call correct, but my gut says no its not. <...bored friday afternoon work time....>Ok, so here's the more complicated calculation:Assuming A) the 7 and A outs are always completely clean and B) that you call with a spade hitting the turn and C) you fold to any non-spade, A or 730/47 blanks = -$36 * 30/47 = -$22.97EV10/47 spades = 35% hit river +$243, 65% miss flush -$111 = $13.1 * 10/47 = $2.78EV3/47 A's = +$243 * 3/47 = $15.5EV4/47 7's = +$243 * 4/47 = $20.68EVTotal EV: $15.99So maybe my gut was wrong (*gasP* :? wouldn't be the first time) BUT, if you add some uncertainty to the 7 & A outs, then it quickly becomes marginal or -EV. 10% chance of those outs being no good and the EV drops to ~$5, 20% and its a -$5 EV. I guess as long as you're 80% sure a str8 or A would win the pot, its a +EV line to take. Bleh, now I go home.
Link to post
Share on other sites
Assuming that we get the rest of his stack, we're getting 6.75-1 on the flop call. I read ...which needs 4.5-1 to see a turn.Absolutely.
I'm not 100% an A is always an out here. I'd say the implied odds if you get his whole stack in is about even with your outs. But, because your not going to get his stack in all the time, I think this is a fold to his raise. However if you are gonna go further you need to push the flop and pick up some fold equity.
Link to post
Share on other sites
If we're talking about metagame here, then it would do wonders for your image!
This was also a consideration. Making a "loose" call early in a game in a very marginally +EV situation can show benefits later. As for the frequency of hands like this, this is the first hand I can recall in months that stands out so "donkishly" at face value.
I'd say the implied odds if you get his whole stack in is about even with your outs. But, because your not going to get his stack in all the time, I think this is a fold to his raise. However if you are gonna go further you need to push the flop and pick up some fold equity.
You really think he's check/folding his last $75 on the turn or river with that much in the pot? Also, we generally have 0 FE and are almost always behind on this flop.cM, thanks for those calculations. I was lazy and looking for someone to do the EV math for me. I do actually think that those outs are clean more than 80% of the time.The hand's interesting because if he had much more or much less money or the bets sizes had been different, it could easily totally throw the line to crap. I'm certainly folding this flop 98% of the time because those conditions wouldn't be right. However, I think that with the stacks and bets the way they are...my line is marginally +EV.Just out of curiosity, are any of you guys checking this flop?
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just out of curiosity, are any of you guys checking this flop?
The only reason I would check the flop is because the big blind and the small blind are so short. If you bet and they push you are going to have to fold, you have a weak draw but it is so the nuts.Checking the flop would have really made things a lot easier to play. I usually blindly (leak?) cbet most flops when there are less than three other people in the hand, or people that never fold on the flop.
Link to post
Share on other sites
The only reason I would check the flop is because the big blind and the small blind are so short. If you bet and they push you are going to have to fold, you have a weak draw but it is so the nuts.Checking the flop would have really made things a lot easier to play. I usually blindly (leak?) cbet most flops when there are less than three other people in the hand, or people that never fold on the flop.
i check flop most of the time, con bet is overrated, and can be check raised by draws and then you have to fold
Link to post
Share on other sites
i check flop most of the time, con bet is overrated, and can be check raised by draws and then you have to fold
Just depends on the texture, I think. In this case, the texture might've been bad...though I figured that they were so short that they were most likely on high cards as opposed to pairs that they might've pushed pre-flop. They also shouldn't really be in there with much in the way of connectors.As for the hand, villain flipped TdTh. Yay for drawing super live. I spiked the Ace on the river like a champ/donk.
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just depends on the texture, I think. In this case, the texture might've been bad...though I figured that they were so short that they were most likely on high cards as opposed to pairs that they might've pushed pre-flop. They also shouldn't really be in there with much in the way of connectors.As for the hand, villain flipped TdTh. Yay for drawing super live. I spiked the Ace on the river like a champ/donk.
Nice read.... :club: you did have the equity though against his hand.Board: 4h 5h 5s 4s equity win Hand 0: 32.085% 31.92% { As6s }Hand 1: 67.915% 67.75% { TdTh }
Link to post
Share on other sites
Nice read.... :club: you did have the equity though against his hand.Board: 4h 5h 5s 4s equity win Hand 0: 32.085% 31.92% { As6s }Hand 1: 67.915% 67.75% { TdTh }
Except that wasn't the board in the hand...
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...