Good Shoveling?

[tripdeuces 0]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Hero (t3050)MP2 (t1490)CO (t1390)Button (t1470)SB (t3010)BB (t1590)UTG (t1500)Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, J. 1 fold, Hero raises to t100, 4 folds, BB calls t80.Flop: (t210) 9, 4, 3(2 players)BB checks, Hero bets t160, BB calls t160.Turn: (t530) 5(2 players)BB checks, Hero bets t2790 (All-In), Now my read on the hand was he either had a 9 or a draw and thats about it. Sets played at this level are usually telegraphed and i felt i was ahead and felt like value shoving it. Again this is 2+x of pot bet but honestly it looks very weird to most 1 level thinking opponents that i think very often you get paid off by a draw.Thoughts?

[jmbreslin 0]

Not sure I understand the rationale for pushing. There's no way he's going to call with a pair of 9's or with a draw, but you're going to get called by a set.

[tripdeuces 0]

Well i would say that a 9 would call and a draw because of the level of play ONLY.

[SCS 0]

Depending on my opponent, I'd actually consider checking behind here and give him a chance to bluff the river.

[Zach6668 513]

Depending on my opponent, I'd actually consider checking behind here and give him a chance to bluff the river.

I'd be more likely to do that with KK or AA, since JJ is a lot more vulnerable to overcards.

[tripdeuces 0]

I will try not to make a habit of this but i think this one needs results to understand why this play is profitable at this IMO.opponent thinks and flips over 65os

[jmbreslin 0]

Even at the micro level (which is what I assume this was), that play will probably work against you more often than it will benefit you. This guy was at the extreme end of the donk spectrum. Unless you had a specific read on his donkiness, which you likely didn't have since you were still at level I, this play has a good chance of backfiring.

[ramenandeggs 0]

"but i think this one needs results to understand why this play is profitable"no, no it doesn't. we don't allow results when you post strat topics for a reason. It's not STRAT. it's assuming that what will work one time will work everytime. even though I think a 9 will look you up, you're better off value betting. what you do in a tournament will reflect what you do later. If you "value-shove" now you're going to have to "bluff-shove" later in order to be consistent with the hands that your opponents see you show down. that's not optimal because the risk when called will be too big. there are also a bunch of smaller 2nd pair type hands or weak draws that may call on the turn incorrectly that won't call your shove so you're losing a lot of value here. another thing is that a "9 or draw" which is what you expect to be shoving against, has outs against you. but the other hands that will call you, a straight/a set, you're virtually dead against (best case scenario being the two outs against a set).

[tripdeuces 0]

Ramen, i know the a 9 or a draw has outs to hit but by overbetting here on occasion you price them out and get them to make a real bad decision.

[copernicus 0]

I guess I'll have to get my arms around "overbetting for value", its an alien concept. There are so few hands that a rational person can call a push with compared to the number of hands that beat you pushing doesnt make sense to me. If he has A9, K9 or 2 overs, whats the rush to push him out of the hand?

[tripdeuces 0]

i have grown to love big overbets at these levels form time to time because it gets paid off so often. A novice player takes big bet as BLUFF and at this level calls more often. You should check out Fischman's sng concept its in the back of this forum somewhere. Mark(NoSup4U) put up a review and it had a lot to do with overbets. Particularly preflop where say in the first hand a sng you have KK and some minbets to 40 you can shove for 1500 and get him to call with 99 for example.

[jmbreslin 0]

Yes, but when you get burned you'll get burned badly and will put yourself out of the tourney. It seems to be a completely unnecessary risk.

[NEtwowilldo 0]

Yes, but when you get burned you'll get burned badly and will put yourself out of the tourney. It seems to be a completely unnecessary risk.

Theres no such thing as an unneccessary risk if you are the favorite, and it's a mistake to think like that. I think trips makes a good point, and it seems like he gets paid often enough on these overbets to make it profitable. Poker involves taking risks, duh.

[ramenandeggs 0]

I'm saying it's not the best way to play. If you overbet now on a legit hand based on opponents thinking that it's how a player bluffs you out, he's still going to call you then if you're actually bluffing with an overbet. And he's going to call you when you try to bluff with a real looking bet, for one it's better pot odds, two, villian's stack is not necessarily on the line, three, he's assuming he still has outs if he's behind, four, he's seen you overbet with real hands so he's expecting you to bluff now when you're betting it under pot-pot. you're hanging yourself against an opponent that pays attention, and you can't assume that no one is paying attention in a cheap tourney, after all, you are aren't you?

[NEtwowilldo 0]

I'm saying it's not the best way to play. If you overbet now on a legit hand based on opponents thinking that it's how a player bluffs you out, he's still going to call you then if you're actually bluffing with an overbet. And he's going to call you when you try to bluff with a real looking bet, for one it's better pot odds, two, villian's stack is not necessarily on the line, three, he's assuming he still has outs if he's behind, four, he's seen you overbet with real hands so he's expecting you to bluff now when you're betting it under pot-pot. you're hanging yourself against an opponent that pays attention, and you can't assume that no one is paying attention in a cheap tourney, after all, you are aren't you?

Maybe he just doesn't bluff.

[jmbreslin 0]

Theres no such thing as an unneccessary risk if you are the favorite, and it's a mistake to think like that. I think trips makes a good point, and it seems like he gets paid often enough on these overbets to make it profitable. Poker involves taking risks, duh.

Calculated risks, yes. My point is that this kind of move will have 3 possible outcomes: (1) a worse hand will fold; (2) a worse hand will call; and (3) a better hand will call.For this play to be profitable, you have to be confident that (2) will happen often enough to offset both the losses from (3) and the loss of potential additional gains from (1). While I'm not nearly as experienced as others in this forum, from what I've seen at the micro levels so far I'm not sure that (2) will happen often enough. That's the point I'm trying to make.

[tripdeuces 0]

Bluffing anytime before it is 4 hands in a sng is suicide unless the blinds are high and you have to move in on a flop with Ace when you showed aggression. In spots like these its all about value and betting when you feel you are probably ahead. Atleast at this level I NEVER BLUFF IN THIS SPOT.

[simo_8ball 0]

Exploitive vs Optimal./shrug

[tripdeuces 0]

If i use this on a player who i never play with so he has no idea about my tendencies a small percentage of the ( <25%) then i don't really understand how it becomes exploitable. These big shoves happen sparingly and aren't a big part of how i play sngs.

[mjd 0]

I am absolutely stunned at how often I get called when I overbet heads-up in 30 and lower STTs. Early on in these things, if you have a monster, you will get long term value from overbetting. It's as if many opponents decide call or fold without looking at the amount.What makes this work is that the general populace bluffs much too often in these things. And, they don't know that you bluff with much less frequency than the norm. Poof, metagame abuse.-M

[DoinSublime 0]

If your goal is to become a better poker player, simply overbetting when you have a hand isn't going to do much for your game when you move up and face quality opponents. We are creatures of habit, and bad habits are hard to break.I'd try to extract value out of the hand, while avoiding only being called by a hand that beats me. ie set.

[tripdeuces 0]

I never said it was a play i regularly use.

[DoinSublime 0]

I never said it was a play i regularly use.

And I never said it was directed at you, I just meant in general.