More End Game Play

[pokerfan1080 0]

Made it to another final table. Trying to get a handle on how aggressive to play certain hands. I have pocket 10's in the cut-off facing an UTG min raise. My M is 7.5.Call, re-raise or push?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Hero (t18540)Button (t26790)SB (t59532)BB (t5220)UTG (t39671)UTG+1 (t13320)MP1 (t29989)MP2 (t24300)MP3 (t52638)Preflop: Hero is CO with T, T. UTG raises to t2400, 4 folds, Hero ?ETA: Reads........ Alot of these players (UTG included) seemed really weak. Min raises were the norm, not many seemed to know how to bet strategicly during previous hands. I had been watching the final two tables to get a good idea how everyone played.

[simo_8ball 0]

Any reraise commits you to the hand, so I like calling. I wouldn't object to reraising or shoving, but I think it is overplaying it a little.

[YBravo 0]

I think this is a push. The min-raise from one of the bigger stacks can represent a lot of different hands once the antes kick in. Winning the blinds and antes is a nice prize, and a min-raise from a big stack can often do just that, even from UTG. You still have FE against him, and even though it's not a complete steal, I think there are a decent amount of hands that we are significantly ahead of. Your read of UTG is paramount in this situation. If you're behind, just suck out.

[pokerfan1080 0]

If you're behind, just suck out.

I need to work on that part of my game..........

[ChrisRichey 1]

Have you seen villain make this type of raise before, or have any other reads?

[pokerfan1080 0]

Have you seen villain make this type of raise before, or have any other reads?

Sorry should have included that, I'll edit my post.But, since I'm responding, alot of the players here were really weak. Min raises were the norm, nobody seemed to bet very strategicly during the hands.

[ChrisRichey 1]

If minraises have been standard, regardless of position, then I push.

[NEtwowilldo 0]

Personally I like a smooth call here. You're second to last in chips but you still have time. Wait to see the flop, and if it comes like A K 4, you're going to be glad you just called. If it comes all low cards you can get all your money in then. Plus if this guy is weak like you described, you can use your position on him postflop.

[ChrisRichey 1]

I don't like flat calling here, because not only is an overcard going to hit 50% of the time and then we have no idea where we are, but it also invites more people into the pot.

[copernicus 0]

Id push here, given the general weakness of the table. Youre rarely worse than ahead in a race here, the money in the pot is meaningful if its folded around, and youre M of 10 doesnt give you the implied odds to play for set value.

[TwoFourOffsuit 0]

Given you're this short and your reads don't indicate villain has a premium hand here, you really need to push. If he turns over a monster, so be it, but you're up against the wall here and this is likely one of the best starting hands you'll see between now and the end.

[jsull 0]

... and youre M of 10 doesnt give you the implied odds to play for set value.

Really? At what M are you getting the correct implied odds for set value then? And why what specific number? If you could please explain, I'd really appreciate it, because that's one of those things that could really help me understand my own game a little better.

[copernicus 0]

Really? At what M are you getting the correct implied odds for set value then? And why what specific number? If you could please explain, I'd really appreciate it, because that's one of those things that could really help me understand my own game a little better.

I just noticed you said your M is 7.5...were there antes? I calculated it as 10 without antes. The raise to 2400 means you have to call for 1.333 M (again assuming no antes), which is 10/1.333= 7.5:1 if you can get all your money in. The odds against the set are 7.5:1 so youre breakeven only if you can get it all in 100% of the time. Whenever your call is less than 1/7.5 then you need to evaluate how often you can get a call for all your money if you hit it.If your M is 7.5 then the raise to 2400 is just about 1M so again you are getting 7.5:1 implied odds if you get it all in 100% of the time, which is a pretty aggressive assumption

[pokerfan1080 0]

Yes, antes were $75, which puts my M at 7.5.Thanks for the input folks.Prior to final table play I would probably just call this hand given a weak raise from UTG, I play a fairly conservative, tight-aggressive style before the final table. But my final table play has been anything but stellar in these 180's, so I'm trying to step up my aggression a little.So, I pushed here. Unfortunately, I ran into the button holding KK. Button pushed over top of me and UTG folded so I don't know what UTG had. I was out in 9th.Running into a bigger hand is just the way it goes, unfortunately it wasn't the player I wanted to be up against. Judging from some of the responses a push isn't too bad, but a smooth call would have given me a way out. These decisions are tough.

[simo_8ball 0]

I just noticed you said your M is 7.5...were there antes? I calculated it as 10 without antes. The raise to 2400 means you have to call for 1.333 M (again assuming no antes), which is 10/1.333= 7.5:1 if you can get all your money in. The odds against the set are 7.5:1 so youre breakeven only if you can get it all in 100% of the time. Whenever your call is less than 1/7.5 then you need to evaluate how often you can get a call for all your money if you hit it.If your M is 7.5 then the raise to 2400 is just about 1M so again you are getting 7.5:1 implied odds if you get it all in 100% of the time, which is a pretty aggressive assumption

Sets:You hit a set 2/17 of the time with a pocket pair.

Board: TcDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	18.508%	  18.20% 	00.31% 			584181 		10026.00   { AA }Hand 1: 	81.492%	  81.18% 	00.31% 		   2606337 		10026.00   { TT }

If you expand it to QQ+, AK, you get a value of 85%, but it is close enough to work with.15/17 you are folding postflop = 15/17 x call amount2/17 you are getting allin as a 4.4:1 favourite (you have 22/27 equity)So, at equilibrium point,( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) + ( 2/17 x 22/27 x ( pot size when allin ) = stack size( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) + ( 2/17 x 22/27 x (stack + stack + blinds+antes ) ) = stack( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) + (22/27 x ( 4/17 x stack + 2/17 x blinds+antes ) ) = stack( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) = stack - (22/27 x ( 4/17 x stack + 2/17 x blinds+antes ) ) ( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) = stack - (22/27 x 4/17 x stack) - ( 22/27 x 2/17 x blinds+antes )( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) = stack - (88/459 x stack) - ( 44/459 x blinds+antes )( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) = ( 371/459 x stack ) - ( 44/459 x blinds+antes )stack - call value = 17/15 x (( 371/459 x stack ) - ( 44/459 x blinds+antes ))stack - call value = ( 0.916 x stack ) - ( 0.109 x blinds+antes )0.084 x stack + 0.109 x blinds/antes = call valueWhich leavesstack size = 11.9 x call value - 1.3 x blinds+antesHere, the blinds and antes are 2700 (assuming 100/600/1200), so,stack size = 11.9 x call value - 3510.We are calling 2400, so,stack size = 28560 - 3510 = 25k.If we get allin every single time we hit a set we need a 25k stack.However, often we will just win it on the flop with a raise. If we factor in that you only get called allin say 75% of the time and the other times you take it on the flop:(make things easier:S = stack sizeC = call valueB = blinds+antes)( 15/17 x ( S-C ) ) + 3/4 x ( 2/17 x 22/27 x ( pot size when allin ) ) + ( 1/4 x 2/17 x pot on flop + remaining stack ) = S( 15/17 x ( S-C ) ) + 3/4 x ( 44/459 x ( S+S+B ) ) + ( 1/34 x ( C+B+S ) = S15/17 (S-C) + 33/459 x ( 2S+B ) + C/34 + B/34 + S/34 = S15/17 (S-C) = S - ( 33/459 x ( 2S + B ) ) - 1/34 x C - 1/34 x B - 1/34 x S15/17 (S-C) = S - 66/459 S - 1/34 S - 33/459 B - 1/34 B - 1/34 C15/17 (S-C) = 393/459 S - 1/34 S - 0.101 B - 1/34 C15/17 (S-C) = 0.827 S - 0.101 B - 1/34 CS-C = 0.937 S - 0.114 B - 1/30 CS-0.937S = 29/30 C - 0.114 B0.063 S = 29/30 C - 0.114 BS = 15.34 C - 1.8 BS = 15.34 x 2400 - 1.8 x 2700 = 36816 - 4860Required stack size = 32k.Ok, the antes were 75, not 100. Not a huge difference but it means you need a slightly larger stack.

[copernicus 0]

Sets:You hit a set 2/17 of the time with a pocket pair.

Board: TcDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	18.508%	  18.20% 	00.31% 			584181 		10026.00   { AA }Hand 1: 	81.492%	  81.18% 	00.31% 		   2606337 		10026.00   { TT }

If you expand it to QQ+, AK, you get a value of 85%, but it is close enough to work with.15/17 you are folding postflop = 15/17 x call amount2/17 you are getting allin as a 4.4:1 favourite (you have 22/27 equity)So, at equilibrium point,( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) + ( 2/17 x 22/27 x ( pot size when allin ) = stack size( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) + ( 2/17 x 22/27 x (stack + stack + blinds+antes ) ) = stack( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) + (22/27 x ( 4/17 x stack + 2/17 x blinds+antes ) ) = stack( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) = stack - (22/27 x ( 4/17 x stack + 2/17 x blinds+antes ) ) ( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) = stack - (22/27 x 4/17 x stack) - ( 22/27 x 2/17 x blinds+antes )( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) = stack - (88/459 x stack) - ( 44/459 x blinds+antes )( 15/17 x ( stack - call value ) = ( 371/459 x stack ) - ( 44/459 x blinds+antes )stack - call value = 17/15 x (( 371/459 x stack ) - ( 44/459 x blinds+antes ))stack - call value = ( 0.916 x stack ) - ( 0.109 x blinds+antes )0.084 x stack + 0.109 x blinds/antes = call valueWhich leavesstack size = 11.9 x call value - 1.3 x blinds+antesHere, the blinds and antes are 2700 (assuming 100/600/1200), so,stack size = 11.9 x call value - 3510.We are calling 2400, so,stack size = 28560 - 3510 = 25k.If we get allin every single time we hit a set we need a 25k stack.However, often we will just win it on the flop with a raise. If we factor in that you only get called allin say 75% of the time and the other times you take it on the flop:(make things easier:S = stack sizeC = call valueB = blinds+antes)( 15/17 x ( S-C ) ) + 3/4 x ( 2/17 x 22/27 x ( pot size when allin ) ) + ( 1/4 x 2/17 x pot on flop + remaining stack ) = S( 15/17 x ( S-C ) ) + 3/4 x ( 44/459 x ( S+S+B ) ) + ( 1/34 x ( C+B+S ) = S15/17 (S-C) + 33/459 x ( 2S+B ) + C/34 + B/34 + S/34 = S15/17 (S-C) = S - ( 33/459 x ( 2S + B ) ) - 1/34 x C - 1/34 x B - 1/34 x S15/17 (S-C) = S - 66/459 S - 1/34 S - 33/459 B - 1/34 B - 1/34 C15/17 (S-C) = 393/459 S - 1/34 S - 0.101 B - 1/34 C15/17 (S-C) = 0.827 S - 0.101 B - 1/34 CS-C = 0.937 S - 0.114 B - 1/30 CS-0.937S = 29/30 C - 0.114 B0.063 S = 29/30 C - 0.114 BS = 15.34 C - 1.8 BS = 15.34 x 2400 - 1.8 x 2700 = 36816 - 4860Required stack size = 32k.Ok, the antes were 75, not 100. Not a huge difference but it means you need a slightly larger stack.

An approximation that can be done at the table is to realize that the probability of flopping the set and winning is 1/8.5*22/27. or 1/10.5, so you need 9.5:1 implied odds, round to 10 x 2400=24000. This ignores the "escape value" of not flopping the set and therefore not risking 5/27 of your stack, but its close enough for government work. It also close enough to multiply the needed stack (in this case the 24000) by 1/(getting it all in). So if you only have 2/3 chance of getting your whole stack in you need 1.5 times the stack you would need if you always got it all in (24000 * 1/(2/3) ) or in this case 36000.

[simo_8ball 0]

An approximation that can be done at the table is to realize that the probability of flopping the set and winning is 1/8.5*22/27. or 1/10.5, so you need 9.5:1 implied odds, round to 10 x 2400=24000. This ignores the "escape value" of not flopping the set and therefore not risking 5/27 of your stack, but its close enough for government work. It also close enough to multiply the needed stack (in this case the 24000) by 1/(getting it all in). So if you only have 2/3 chance of getting your whole stack in you need 1.5 times the stack you would need if you always got it all in (24000 * 1/(2/3) ) or in this case 36000.

Yeah, I didn't need to go into that much depth but I kinda got some momentum going.As a general rule, 5% of your stack preflop is a pretty clear call, 10% is a pretty clear fold.