poker: a game of luck?

[OnTilt18 0]

Daniel, I was wondering how much of poker you think is luck? When I first started playing, I calculated it about 90% luck and 10% skill. Then, when I started playing a little more and my game improved, those numbers flipped. Now, I have it calculated at about 70% skill and 30% luck. However, playing in a home game with a diversified group of players is much different than playing in the poker circuit with seasoned pros - skill is obviously more valued. What do you think?

[elkang 0]

I'm not Daniel, but putting a % on it is not a very useful metric.Certain parts of poker are almost all skill. Other parts are all "luck" or random chance.Meanwhile, when you get granular, luck can overtake a great amount of skill -- meaning that the worst player in the world can beat the best player - if luck is on his side.Poker is at its heart a skill game... luck supplies the variance -- this can be illustrated when you stick 10 players at a table with $100,000 each and let them play $1/2 NL. I have no doubt that over time the distribution of money will go to the better players.Can someone say it better than this? My post is weak. Maybe I should just say poker is 90% skill and 10% luck in the long term, but in the short term is more luck become a bigger and bigger factor.

[wrto4556 0]

Weak post police.Lucky becomes more of a factor as you move up in limits, imo. most of the players know pot odds and what not and the edges you push are few and far between. In low limits with bad players you can nut peddal and still show a profit.

[Swift_Psycho 1]

Lucky becomes more of a factor as you move up in limits, imo. most of the players know pot odds and what not and the edges you push are few and far between. In low limits with bad players you can nut peddal and still show a profit.

Agreed. In low limit games, skill is way more important. That's probably why bad beats don't bother me so much; it's so easy to just win the money right back. The higher up I go, the harder I think I'd take bad beats.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Weak post police.Lucky becomes more of a factor as you move up in limits, imo. most of the players know pot odds and what not and the edges you push are few and far between. In low limits with bad players you can nut peddal and still show a profit.

You sound like your saying there is more luck involved at higher stake games..??Cuuuzzz.. that wouldnt make very much sense now would it

[wrto4556 0]

Weak post police.Lucky becomes more of a factor as you move up in limits, imo. most of the players know pot odds and what not and the edges you push are few and far between. In low limits with bad players you can nut peddal and still show a profit.

You sound like your saying there is more luck involved at higher stake games..??Cuuuzzz.. that wouldnt make very much sense now would it

Not more luck involved....luck is more of a factor...that was my first sentance.

[Swift_Psycho 1]

Weak post police.Lucky becomes more of a factor as you move up in limits, imo. most of the players know pot odds and what not and the edges you push are few and far between. In low limits with bad players you can nut peddal and still show a profit.

You sound like your saying there is more luck involved at higher stake games..??Cuuuzzz.. that wouldnt make very much sense now would it

Sure it does. The higher you go, the more skilled the player (in theory). That means that there are less edges to exploit in your play and you may have to get more creative than you do at lower limits in order to beat the game. You can only be so creative though. Luck would take care of the rest.

[Blackchipper 0]

Daniel, I was wondering how much of poker you think is luck? When I first started playing, I calculated it about 90% luck and 10% skill. Then, when I started playing a little more and my game improved, those numbers flipped. Now, I have it calculated at about 70% skill and 30% luck. However, playing in a home game with a diversified group of players is much different than playing in the poker circuit with seasoned pros - skill is obviously more valued. What do you think?

sooo just how did you calculate all this information??

[Royal_Tour 0]

Not more luck involved....luck is more of a factor...that was my first sentance.Sentence.. Umm. no i'm going to have to dissagree with you BIG TIME!!.. Money is the issue. Have you ever played for play money?? everyone is all in every hand.. Now u play low limits.. ok a little better. but your pock Aces get cracked by 10, 3 off suit., cuz the flop came 10, 6, K.. and low limit Lenny thought his 10 is good with his 3 kicker.. so he stays in until the river to hit his 3.,Now you play high levels. with players who understand the basic concept of the game, with large amount of money which can be very valuable to some players. And your going to get a game where the skill to read your opponents, and understand the mathematics behind every hand wil shine through.

[OnTilt18 0]

I didn't get out my TI-89 and graph a function of it. I used the word calculate in a non-mathematical sense. If that's all you gained from reading the post, you may just want to stick to Green Eggs and Ham.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Weak post police.Lucky becomes more of a factor as you move up in limits, imo. most of the players know pot odds and what not and the edges you push are few and far between. In low limits with bad players you can nut peddal and still show a profit.

You sound like your saying there is more luck involved at higher stake games..??Cuuuzzz.. that wouldnt make very much sense now would it

Sure it does. The higher you go, the more skilled the player (in theory). That means that there are less edges to exploit in your play and you may have to get more creative than you do at lower limits in order to beat the game. You can only be so creative though. Luck would take care of the rest.

What is this????.. So if your magic "theory" was correct.. Pro players would drop in limits. as their skill increased???Now does that make sense???????????I hate to quote rounders but "is it a coincedence that the same 5 guys make it to the finals every time?"

[Swift_Psycho 1]

I didn't get out my TI-89 and graph a function of it. I used the word calculate in a non-mathematical sense. If that's all you gained from reading the post, you may just want to stick to Green Eggs and Ham.

The last sentence seems quite unnecessary. Besides, what exactly is there to gain from reading the post? You don't really make any point. In fact, you're asking a question.

[wrto4556 0]

They higher limit players have more skill, but they have alot of the same skills. Low limit players have no skill so there is a larger gap.Why do you think people in the big game only make 1BB per week?Instead of 2BB/100 hands

[Smasharoo 0]

Umm. no i'm going to have to dissagree with you BIG TIME!!..Money is the issue. Have you ever played for play money?? everyone is all in every hand..How does that involve more luck to beat?Now u play low limits.. ok a little better. but your set Aces get cracked by 10, 3 off suit., cuz the flop came 10, 6, K.. and low limit Lenny thought his 10 is good with his 3 kicker.. so he stays in until the river to hit his 3.,Now you play high levels. with players who understand the basic concept of the game, with large amount of money which can be very valuable to some players. And your going to get a game where the skill to read your opponents, and understand the mathematics behind every hand wil shine through.You're a fool. Thre's more luck involved in beating someone who plays as well as you do than there is in playing a chimpansee. (Assuming one could be found that played worse than you). The less the skill diffreential, the more luck there is invovled. This is why it's almost impossible to have a down month at low limits but it's fairly easy at higher limits. A little bad luck goes a long way when your skill advantage is miniscule.

[Smasharoo 0]

What is this????.. So if your magic "theory" was correct.. Pro players would drop in limits. as their skill increased???Now does that make sense???????????No, their winrate would go down as they went up in limits because there would be more luck invovled because they'd have less of a skill advantage.You know, kind of exactly what happens?

[Swift_Psycho 1]

Weak post police.Lucky becomes more of a factor as you move up in limits, imo. most of the players know pot odds and what not and the edges you push are few and far between. In low limits with bad players you can nut peddal and still show a profit.

You sound like your saying there is more luck involved at higher stake games..??Cuuuzzz.. that wouldnt make very much sense now would it

Sure it does. The higher you go, the more skilled the player (in theory). That means that there are less edges to exploit in your play and you may have to get more creative than you do at lower limits in order to beat the game. You can only be so creative though. Luck would take care of the rest.

What is this????.. So if your magic "theory" was correct.. Pro players would drop in limits. as their skill increased???Now does that make sense???????????I hate to quote rounders but "is it a coincedence that the same 5 guys make it to the finals every time?"

Why would pros drop in limits to make less money? How does that make sense? I was simply trying to say that once you get to the top of the greats, there is less of a difference in their play. Any time I read a respectable poker writer's view of the greats, they always make sure to mention that the difference between the 20th greatest player and the 120th greatest player in the world is incredibly small (something to that effect anyway). In that case, then yes, luck becomes more of a factor because the skill separating them is relatively small.P.S. Calm down, don't be so shocked every time someone disagrees with you.

[OnTilt18 0]

Haha, I'm not trying to get into a cyber fight with anyone on a poker blog. I asked a question because I was sincerely interested. But anyways, I'm glad it has attracted some replies. So, if the last sentecne was unneccesary, I apologize.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Umm. no i'm going to have to dissagree with you BIG TIME!!..Money is the issue. Have you ever played for play money?? everyone is all in every hand..How does that involve more luck to beat?Now u play low limits.. ok a little better. but your set Aces get cracked by 10, 3 off suit., cuz the flop came 10, 6, K.. and low limit Lenny thought his 10 is good with his 3 kicker.. so he stays in until the river to hit his 3.,Now you play high levels. with players who understand the basic concept of the game, with large amount of money which can be very valuable to some players. And your going to get a game where the skill to read your opponents, and understand the mathematics behind every hand wil shine through.You're a fool. Thre's more luck involved in beating someone who plays as well as you do than there is in playing a chimpansee. (Assuming one could be found that played worse than you). The less the skill diffreential, the more luck there is invovled. This is why it's almost impossible to have a down month at low limits but it's fairly easy at higher limits. A little bad luck goes a long way when your skill advantage is miniscule.

First off.. play an hour on play money.. its very easy to hit trip 7's when your play your 7, 2 because you dont care about the money.And second. You must not play very many games of mixed chance and skill.. You are the fool.Luck will always be the exact same at any level and at any time.. I thought you of all people would understand this Smash.However. More bad beats will occure at lower limits. Your skill can only take you so far when you get 5 callers, in low limit games, to later be sucked out on.If you want to say poker can be considered much like a game of chess, where you play your opponents and not the cards (game pieces). Then I will agree with you.

[Swift_Psycho 1]

However. More bad beats will occure at lower limits. Your skill can only take you so far when you get 5 callers, in low limit games, to later be sucked out on. And the times your hand holds up, your profit will more than cover the losses from the bad beats. This isn't a new concept, I can't believe people keep forgetting this fact.

[Blackchipper 0]

Umm. no i'm going to have to dissagree with you BIG TIME!!..Money is the issue. Have you ever played for play money?? everyone is all in every hand..How does that involve more luck to beat?Now u play low limits.. ok a little better. but your set Aces get cracked by 10, 3 off suit., cuz the flop came 10, 6, K.. and low limit Lenny thought his 10 is good with his 3 kicker.. so he stays in until the river to hit his 3.,Now you play high levels. with players who understand the basic concept of the game, with large amount of money which can be very valuable to some players. And your going to get a game where the skill to read your opponents, and understand the mathematics behind every hand wil shine through.You're a fool. Thre's more luck involved in beating someone who plays as well as you do than there is in playing a chimpansee. (Assuming one could be found that played worse than you). The less the skill diffreential, the more luck there is invovled. This is why it's almost impossible to have a down month at low limits but it's fairly easy at higher limits. A little bad luck goes a long way when your skill advantage is miniscule.

First off.. play an hour on play money.. its very easy to hit trip 7's when your play your 7, 2 because you dont care about the money.And second. You must not play very many games of mixed chance and skill.. You are the fool.Luck will always be the exact same at any level and at any time.. I thought you of all people would understand this Smash.However. More bad beats will occure at lower limits. Your skill can only take you so far when you get 5 callers, in low limit games, to later be sucked out on.If you want to say poker can be considered much like a game of chess, where you play your opponents and not the cards (game pieces). Then I will agree with you.

is this guy serious?? every sentence you say is contradictory to the previous one... just stop while your well, a little behind.

[Swift_Psycho 1]

Umm. no i'm going to have to dissagree with you BIG TIME!!..Money is the issue. Have you ever played for play money?? everyone is all in every hand..How does that involve more luck to beat?Now u play low limits.. ok a little better. but your set Aces get cracked by 10, 3 off suit., cuz the flop came 10, 6, K.. and low limit Lenny thought his 10 is good with his 3 kicker.. so he stays in until the river to hit his 3.,Now you play high levels. with players who understand the basic concept of the game, with large amount of money which can be very valuable to some players. And your going to get a game where the skill to read your opponents, and understand the mathematics behind every hand wil shine through.You're a fool. Thre's more luck involved in beating someone who plays as well as you do than there is in playing a chimpansee. (Assuming one could be found that played worse than you). The less the skill diffreential, the more luck there is invovled. This is why it's almost impossible to have a down month at low limits but it's fairly easy at higher limits. A little bad luck goes a long way when your skill advantage is miniscule.

First off.. play an hour on play money.. its very easy to hit trip 7's when your play your 7, 2 because you dont care about the money.And second. You must not play very many games of mixed chance and skill.. You are the fool.Luck will always be the exact same at any level and at any time.. I thought you of all people would understand this Smash.However. More bad beats will occure at lower limits. Your skill can only take you so far when you get 5 callers, in low limit games, to later be sucked out on.If you want to say poker can be considered much like a game of chess, where you play your opponents and not the cards (game pieces). Then I will agree with you.

is this guy serious?? every sentence you say is contradictory to the previous one... just stop while your well, a little behind.

I'm not sure about contradictory, but the ideas are still wrong nonetheless.

[Royal_Tour 0]

You are all saying"luck" changes at different Levels.Can you argue with me there?I'm simply telling you that luck remains the same consistant factor at any time., But i will say that you experience much more "bad beats". at lower limits.This form of bad luck is much more dominant than any "good luck" at high levels.i've never seen a hand finish "pre-river" in any micro limit game.Which means, you have to have the "winning hand"

[Smasharoo 0]

i've never seen a hand finish "pre-river" in any micro limit game.Which is why luck is so much more of a factor at higher limits.When you understand that you'll probably be a much better Holdem player and feel really stupid about this post.

[Royal_Tour 0]

i've never seen a hand finish "pre-river" in any micro limit game.Which is why luck is so much more of a factor at higher limits.When you understand that you'll probably be a much better Holdem player and feel really stupid about this post.

Bluffing out your opponents TPTK, with your crap, is luck?

[SapphireTiger 0]

According to MIT statisticsPoker is 72.5438% skill and 27.4562% luck.