Should I Fold My Lovely Aaqq?

[BudBundy 0]

Game #3489071153: 7 Card FL ($1/$2) - 2007/03/16 - 17:43:31 (UK)Table "Akro" Seat 1: Mejulie ($29.50 in chips)Seat 2: Arpoo9 ($10 in chips)Seat 3: oldbridge ($58 in chips)Seat 4: TobeyP ($56.25 in chips)Seat 5: tyzcour2 sits outSeat 6: BlueEyes sits outSeat 7: bundys2 ($65 in chips)Seat 8: Gord24095 ($20.25 in chips)oldbridge: posts the ante $0.25TobeyP: posts the ante $0.25bundys2: posts the ante $0.25Gord24095: posts the ante $0.25Arpoo9: posts the ante $0.25Mejulie: posts the ante $0.25----- 3rd STREET -----dealt to Mejulie [3c]dealt to Arpoo9 [6c]dealt to oldbridge [Qd]dealt to TobeyP [7c]dealt to bundys2 [Ac Qh Ah]dealt to Gord24095 [2d]tyzcour2 sits backGord24095: brings-in $0.50Mejulie: foldsArpoo9: foldsoldbridge: calls $0.50TobeyP: foldsbundys2: raises $1Gord24095: foldsoldbridge: calls $0.50----- 4th STREET -----dealt to oldbridge [Qd][Tc]dealt to bundys2 [Ac Qh Ah][Th]bundys2: bets $1oldbridge: calls $1----- 5th STREET -----dealt to oldbridge [Qd Tc][As]dealt to bundys2 [Ac Qh Ah Th][Qc]oldbridge: bets $2bundys2: raises $4oldbridge: calls $2----- 6th STREET -----dealt to oldbridge [Qd Tc As][Jc]dealt to bundys2 [Ac Qh Ah Th Qc][4c]oldbridge: bets $2bundys2: calls $2----- RIVER -----dealt to bundys2 [Ac Qh Ah Th Qc 4c][4d]oldbridge: bets $2bundys2: calls $2

[Ricer98 0]

Wow this is a tough one, the villan played this hand so strange by just calling a raise on 5th, then leading 6th and 7th. I'd say that means he's either extremely strong or very weak. As passive as play usually is I'd probably lean towards the first of the two, that he's got the straight. Its just so hard to put a smaller two pair in his hand since he would need either the case ace or queen. This is one of those way ahead or way behing situations. We've either got the villan drawing to a six outer at best, two outs for a boat and four for the straight. Or, if he's already there and were looking at a two outer. I think the correct play would probably be fold 6th unless your playing against a very tricky player. Given the low limits I doubt it, but if I was the villan and knew you weren't a total calling station I would probably try to bluff here. Our boards share so many cards I would be thinking you probably don't have much, maybe just a pair of aces given the raise of 3rd. On 6th theres already seven big bets in the pot so a bluff would only have to work one time in seven, which I think it definetly would. Also if he did hit the straight on 6th, why not check it and let you bet, then raise. You did raise 5th afterall, so it would make sense that you could bet again on 6th. Something about that lead would just not seem right to me. This is probably way too deep a level of thought for these limits and he's probably not betting unless he's got it. In the hand I would probably know I was beat but call down the two extra bets half trying to make the huge call and pick off a bluff. And, half to find out what he had to bet so strange. Making a note on the player and moving on would make it alot easier to fold in later hands. I need to start convincing myself to just make the laydown though as I often give low limits players way too much credit for possibly making a play, when they never are. So, fold unless the villian has shown he is cabable of making tricky plays or likes to bluff alot.

[Vman96 0]

This is real marginal. You have 4.5 outs...3 outs to win and 3 outs to split...and will have position on the river. You have to be pretty damn sure he has it to fold 6th here...the pot is getting pretty big. Folding is probably best against straightforward opponents, but calling isn't a horrible mistake either...because we see that we probably get $4 on the river if we hit our boat.