Need some math help.

[Lord Ben 0]

Okay, I was wondering if people could lend me some help figuring out if I got the right pot odds on this hand or if I did something dumb. I posted this hand at my brothers blog at http://nolimitsheboygan.blogspot.com/2005/.../dumb-call.html but I'll repost it here so people don't have to leave the site.-----------------------Okay, on to the second hand I'll second guess myself on all night long. I can't remember, but I think it was several hands after the previous post. Blinds were 2k/4kI have about 45k in chips and was definitely the dominant chip leader of the evening at that point. 7 people where left and it paid out 6. Player #1 had just had A3 suited pay off and doubled up. He started off the betting by going all in for 14k. #2 went all in for his last 4k, and #3 on small blind called the 14k and had maybe 3k left in chips. I was already on big blind for 4k, and was looking at 10k more to call, it'd never be more than 13k more no matter what the flop came up with.I look at my cards and it was K5, normally an automatic fold. Yet some ideas crossed my mind that maybe were wrong but I don’t know yet. There was 36k in the pot already, including 4k of my own. For only 10k more, I had a chance of eliminating 3 players and ending up with 2/3rds of all the chips in the tournament. #1 went all in with A3s and A5s twice now in this tourney when short stacked. Heads up I'd fold but I figured I was getting my moneys worth and ponies up the extra 10k. 4-1 for my money and no chance at people going over the top of me again I figured is pretty good.Flop came up crap cards, check check between me and the guy with 3k left. Turn came up 5, I go all in, he folds. We turn over cards between the two all in players and me. #1 had AA, #2 had 77, and I had K5 with a 5 on the turn. No K or 5 came up on the river and I lost and #1 tripled up. So I lost and I'd rather have had the 10k back. But did I make the right move in calling? I wasn't favored to win but I think I got pot odds in calling anyhow.

[cdddc75 0]

Okay, I was wondering if people could lend me some help figuring out if I got the right pot odds on this hand or if I did something dumb.  I posted this hand at my brothers blog at http://nolimitsheboygan.blogspot.com/2005/.../dumb-call.html but I'll repost it here so people don't have to leave the site.-----------------------Okay, on to the second hand I'll second guess myself on all night long. I can't remember, but I think it was several hands after the previous post. Blinds were 2k/4kI have about 45k in chips and was definitely the dominant chip leader of the evening at that point. 7 people where left and it paid out 6. Player #1 had just had A3 suited pay off and doubled up. He started off the betting by going all in for 14k. #2 went all in for his last 4k, and #3 on small blind called the 14k and had maybe 3k left in chips. I was already on big blind for 4k, and was looking at 10k more to call, it'd never be more than 13k more no matter what the flop came up with.I look at my cards and it was K5, normally an automatic fold. Yet some ideas crossed my mind that maybe were wrong but I don’t know yet. There was 36k in the pot already, including 4k of my own. For only 10k more, I had a chance of eliminating 3 players and ending up with 2/3rds of all the chips in the tournament. #1 went all in with A3s and A5s twice now in this tourney when short stacked. Heads up I'd fold but I figured I was getting my moneys worth and ponies up the extra 10k. 4-1 for my money and no chance at people going over the top of me again I figured is pretty good.Flop came up crap cards, check check between me and the guy with 3k left. Turn came up 5, I go all in, he folds. We turn over cards between the two all in players and me. #1 had AA, #2 had 77, and I had K5 with a 5 on the turn. No K or 5 came up on the river and I lost and #1 tripled up. So I lost and I'd rather have had the 10k back. But did I make the right move in calling? I wasn't favored to win but I think I got pot odds in calling anyhow.

You had a 10.2% chance of defeating AA and 77:http://twodimes.net/h/?z=889008Pot odds were not there for the call. Considering calling and missing means you lose the chip lead, I think folding K5 would have been the correct play. I do like the call from the aggressiveness view though, since winning this hand just about guarantees you the win in the tournament.Good question.

[PittRounder 0]

Despite the pot odds, which you didn't have, i think the other thing you have to look at is should you lose and #1 wins its puts him in a better position than you. At this point you say you have a good chip lead, I would want to give that up w/ an extremely poor holding.

[bdluss 0]

Well lets not get into there being an overpair to your k5, so no aces or kings. I say this because given the blinds and your knowledge of your opponents, they could have moved in with much worse. Given this you are about 20% if there is a mid pair and no one has a king in their hand. If someone has a king and there is a mid pair you are about 8%. If there is no pair and someone has a king your 11%. If no pair and no king your 25%. So best case scenario your 25%. So basically the simple answer would be no if your looking at the main pot of 16K. Side pot #1 has 20k in it with 3 players. And if you decide to call there will be a 2nd side pot with 3k in it. So you are at best 25% to win the main pot, side pot #1 you are between 20%-30% eseentially depending on a variety of hands. Given the wide variety of hands here, and the fact that k5 off is in bad shape, pot odds would say to fold.

[Lord Ben 0]

Thanks, that calculator is great. I only knew the odds of 1-1 hands, not with adding in 4 hands total. I added in the different calculations and I wasn't getting 4-1 for most of the hands I thought they might have. I figured that unless someone had AA or KK my odds were at LEAST 30% if not better than that so I called. But I didn't know how to calculate multiple people in the same pot.I ended up taking 3rd for the evening and bringing home $155 or 5x the buyin.

[Big Country 0]

One thing wrong with cddc's analysis of the pot odds... you did not know your opponents holdings, so you would have to run K5 vs. random hands, or preferably, against the range of hands you expect your opponents to make that kind of move with.I don't think I would make this call, as with two players all in plus an extra caller for a significant amount of chips, you know your hand is way behind. So, the options are:A. Call the bet, knowing K5 is behind. (Although, if my only opponent left in the hand only had 3K at this point I would have raised him all-in preflop). If we get very lucky and win the hand, we knock out 2-3 opponents, making the mney for sure and getting a commanding chip lead. However, as chances are we will lose, we end up down an extra 14-17K, putting us at about 30K , while tripling up one of our opponents to at least 45K or so.B. We fold. We stay at 45K withadecent chip lead and bestcase scenario two opponents get knocked out with one moving up to only 32K or so in chips, meaning we keep our chip lead with only 5 players to go, meaning we are in the money.I think given the scenarios, I fold even if there are sufficient pot odds to dictate a call. The situation just warrants passing on this in my opinion.

[SabaAba 0]

I think this was an easy fold. Considering there were already 3 people in the pot, you have to think that at least one person has you completely dominated, i.e. they have a K in their hand. Even if not, one of your cards the 5, is most likely no good even if you hit it. With 3 people in the pot, very good chance that someone will hit the flop with a pair higher than a 5. And lastly, f you call, you could potentially give up the chip lead, which is not worth the risk of trying to hit a miracle flop with K5. I think this is a better call if only the short stack goes all in and no callers. The fact that there were 2 callers makes this an easy easy fold.Well Done on coming 3rd.

[Lord Ben 0]

Well, one guy I could only lose 4k to, and the other guy wasn't all-in. He only had 3-5k left in chips but I knew he'd fold if he didn't hit a great hand on the flop. I was right and he did fold his QJs when nothing came up on the flop and I bet into him. So at that point it was only Me vs the other two stacks, One of whom I could only lose 4k to anyhow. So the odds are a little bit tricky that way too, but I don't disagree with the final result of the analysis.Thanks for the help guys. Next time I'll fold.