25k Guarantee Hand Analysis

[SilentButDeadly3 0]

With blinds 120/240/25 in the 25k guarantee on Full Tilt($24+$2 tournament). 300 people left. 180 cash. You're sitting around 60th in chips. Sitting nice.Your stack: 8390Villain's stack: 4825Dealt QQ UTG+1.You raise to 720.Villain reraises to 4825 and is all in.What is your play and why? Is this an instant call? Instant fold? Toughy? Just got moved to the table two hands previous. The only "read" on the opponent is that he has taken forever to fold the past two hands and seems to have connection problems.I don't really wanna gamble with QQ for half my stack AIPF with the blinds only at 120/240. Seems ridiculous that he's pushing a 20x bb stack in AIPF. But at the same time, he could easily be making this play with 99-JJ. And I'm only really scared of AA or KK and gambling with AK.

[NEtwowilldo 0]

With no real reads, some might fold.I find however that some people don't like to play small pairs after the flop, but don't like to "waste the pair" either. If I had to guess I would put him on 77.Tough spot though, I'd probably call.

[SlackerInc 0]

Seems ridiculous that he's pushing a 20x bb stack in AIPF. But at the same time, he could easily be making this play with 99-JJ. And I'm only really scared of AA or KK and gambling with AK.

Ah, but a "20x bb stack" is misleading here. With the antes, his M is only 8, which means he certainly can't reraise you less than all in. And a smooth call leaves him pretty darn near pot committed. So if he really wants to play the hand, a push is in order I think.You have an above average Q, but that's the "weak force". Your M is only 14, while the money is still somewhat distant. Villain's M is as we said in the Orange Zone. I would estimate a random player's range in this situation (though I haven't played this type of tourney, admittedly) to be even a little broader that what you're saying: maybe throw in pocket sevens or eights, plus AJ and AQ; perhaps a smaller suited ace or even a bluff, say with suited connectors (a good hand to make a big move with every now and then). With an M in the lower half of the Yellow Zone and a lot of play left in front of you, this is a great opportunity to grab some chips and get a head of steam going. Unless you think you can deftly outplay everyone that comes your way from here out, I'd go for it.ETA: If villain raised without pushing, I'd probably be more scared (I'd still call though--or, more precisely, repop).

[ChrisRichey 1]

I think it would help to know villains position at the table. If he is in MP, then his push looks a lot stronger with so many people to act behind him. If he pushed from the button, or even the SB, then that's entirely different. Based on math alone, this is a call. You can easily include AK in his range, and like Slacker said prob even AJs/AQo and 88+ which were about 63% to win. I call.

[simo_8ball 0]

Yeah, you have to call.Shoving for 20xbb isn't an odd play - he can't really make a smaller raise without committing himself to calling a shove.

[throwemaway 0]

With blinds 120/240/25 in the 25k guarantee on Full Tilt($24+$2 tournament). 300 people left. 180 cash. You're sitting around 60th in chips. Sitting nice.Your stack: 8390Villain's stack: 4825Dealt QQ UTG+1.You raise to 720.Villain reraises to 4825 and is all in.What is your play and why? Is this an instant call? Instant fold? Toughy? Just got moved to the table two hands previous. The only "read" on the opponent is that he has taken forever to fold the past two hands and seems to have connection problems.I don't really wanna gamble with QQ for half my stack AIPF with the blinds only at 120/240. Seems ridiculous that he's pushing a 20x bb stack in AIPF. But at the same time, he could easily be making this play with 99-JJ. And I'm only really scared of AA or KK and gambling with AK.

Instacall

[SilentButDeadly3 0]

Ok, thanks guys. I called and my friend said it was stupid to risk my chips at that point. He flipped TT and my friend somewhat shut up. Unfortunately.....Full Tilt Poker Game #1867236031: $25,000 Guarantee (13501930), Table 4 - 120/240 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:47:23 ET - 2007/02/24Seat 1: marco58 (4,825), is sitting outSeat 2: lolol you lose (7,745)Seat 3: Antebagger (5,490)Seat 4: Marc06 (2,775)Seat 5: rolos13 (4,065)Seat 6: SilentNDeadly3 (8,390)Seat 7: Mr Mack Bust (1,890)Seat 8: ACB KGB (12,849)Seat 9: mdoggy10 (6,690)marco58 antes 25lolol you lose antes 25Antebagger antes 25Marc06 antes 25rolos13 antes 25SilentNDeadly3 antes 25Mr Mack Bust antes 25ACB KGB antes 25mdoggy10 antes 25lolol you lose posts the small blind of 120Antebagger posts the big blind of 240The button is in seat #1*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to SilentNDeadly3 [Qs Qd]Marc06 foldsrolos13 foldsmarco58 has returnedSilentNDeadly3 raises to 720Mr Mack Bust foldsACB KGB foldsmdoggy10 foldsmarco58 has 15 seconds left to actmarco58 raises to 4,800, and is all inlolol you lose foldsAntebagger foldsSilentNDeadly3 calls 4,080marco58 shows [Td Tc]SilentNDeadly3 shows [Qs Qd]*** FLOP *** [Jd Kc 7d]*** TURN *** [Jd Kc 7d] [Qh]*** RIVER *** [Jd Kc 7d Qh] [9d]marco58 shows a straight, King highSilentNDeadly3 shows three of a kind, Queensmarco58 wins the pot (10,185) with a straight, King highThe blinds are now 150/300 with an ante of 25*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 10,185 | Rake 0Board: [Jd Kc 7d Qh 9d]Seat 1: marco58 (button) showed [Td Tc] and won (10,185) with a straight, King highSeat 2: lolol you lose (small blind) folded before the FlopSeat 3: Antebagger (big blind) folded before the FlopSeat 4: Marc06 folded before the FlopSeat 5: rolos13 folded before the FlopSeat 6: SilentNDeadly3 showed [Qs Qd] and lost with three of a kind, QueensSeat 7: Mr Mack Bust folded before the FlopSeat 8: ACB KGB folded before the FlopSeat 9: mdoggy10 folded before the Flopobbvvvv.My friend meanwhile said "I told you so."

[ChrisRichey 1]

My friend meanwhile said "I told you so."

I hope you punched him. It was the right call though, and if he still disagrees, point him to this thread.

[throwemaway 0]

Tell your friend he is a freaking moron

[MychCumstien 0]

nice call. I think AA or KK would have played it differently, they wouldn't want to scare you out of the pot, and would have raised smaller. His all in reraise screamed of mid PP or Ace high to me. Prior to seeing the HH I said "call". him having TT is great, just sucks how the board played out, but hey, that's poker. I say, nice call, and keeping playing the hands the way you did here.

[SilentButDeadly3 0]

I hope you punched him. It was the right call though, and if he still disagrees, point him to this thread.

I was going to punch him but then he put up an arm to block it. So I fake nuttapped him, he fell for it and put down his guard then I socked him in the arm. He was bitchin about his arm hurting like an hour later when we were playing basketball. So I think it's safe to say I got him back.

[thecove 0]

I call.With no real information on the player, I believe you have to go with the percentages here. Only two hands are beating you here, AA and KK.He may be pushing hard with AK-AQ looking to take down the pot right there.Unless you have a stone cold read that he is holding a bigger monster than you, I think you. Even if you lose this hand you still have time to play but if you win this hand, you just added a condo to your stack. Just saw the hand results in the rest of the thread, tough beat. But you put your money in good and that is playing optimally.Man it hurts when the turn helps you but sets him up for a suck out.In the long run, your call is golden.

[SlackerInc 0]

Man it hurts when the turn helps you but sets him up for a suck out.

Unless I'm missing something (I'm pretty tired after staying up all night last night) the turn only appeared to help him--it actually increased villain's outs from two to four (though of course they were different outs).

[ChrisRichey 1]

Unless I'm missing something (I'm pretty tired after staying up all night last night) the turn only appeared to help him--it actually increased villain's outs from two to four (though of course they were different outs).

He actually went from 2 to 8 there, because an A would give him the win too.

[SlackerInc 0]

He actually went from 2 to 8 there, because an A would give him the win too.

Ahhhh....right! So making the set was a "poison pill" to say the least. Was there any worse card for hero to see on the turn? Funny how that works a lot of times when you're messing around with Broadway cards.