New Challenge (old Challenge)

[TB17 0]

I dont like looking at all your graphs. Makes me feel bad

[Merby 3]

If I am understanding the columns correctly, I am very confused by the results. If I have an average of 48% equity, shouldn't my EV adjusted be close to break even, half win/ half lose. I would have to be getting it in bad in large pots a significantly more often compared to small pots. How do I average 48% equity and get -500 in results with -600 equity adjusted?

Over a sufficient sample size, yes. However, unless you have thousands of hands (after filtering, not before) then it is no surprise that you are $100 away from your equity adjusted results.On top of that, if you didn't do weighted averages, then your equity percentage over the entire lot of hands will be misleading. Say for example, you played AK in 2 pots: one where you had 25% equity and the other where you had 75% equity. Without considering pot sizes, you had 50% equity over the two pots.If on the other hand, the 25% equity pot was in a $1000 pot and the 75% equity was in a $10 pot, then you would actually be running with little over 25% equity over the weighted average of the two hands.

[ChicagoMike22 0]

Over a sufficient sample size, yes. However, unless you have thousands of hands (after filtering, not before) then it is no surprise that you are $100 away from your equity adjusted results.On top of that, if you didn't do weighted averages, then your equity percentage over the entire lot of hands will be misleading. Say for example, you played AK in 2 pots: one where you had 25% equity and the other where you had 75% equity. Without considering pot sizes, you had 50% equity over the two pots.If on the other hand, the 25% equity pot was in a $1000 pot and the 75% equity was in a $10 pot, then you would actually be running with little over 25% equity over the weighted average of the two hands.

Yeah the sample size is surprisingly small. For example, over about 500k hands I have 5bet shoved AK with a full stack 34 times. I'm not sure if there is anything I can determine with these stats. I may just not be smart enough. However, I am losing lots of money when getting AK in aipf which is concerning. Anyone have some ideas? Just stop being so nitty? I'm running at about 18/15 this year at 100NL.

[mln_falcon 0]

such brag posts going on.

QFT

If I am filtering correctly, my equity aipf for a full stake is 37%. That's not good. this is for 89 hands which is out of over 300k total.calling 5bet... need 36% equityShoving on a 4bet. I need 44% in equity including fold equity. Not really sure how to calculate my fold equity.Being a nit or not has no effect on unknowns. So if I 3bet a unknown with AK, I should be folding AK? That can't be right.

I know absolutely nothing about your game. From the sounds of things though you're really tight. Does this make your 4bet/5bet range AA,KK,AK?If so it's perfectly acceptable to be losing with AK, as that hand is in your range so you continue to get action on AA and KK. You only lose a little with AK in general, but you gain a lot with KK and AA. That said you should probably increase your 4bet and 5bet ranges (Rdogs "don't be a nit" comment). Then you will start to show a profit with AK aipf probably, but now a new hand will show the losses, ie, AQ or AJ depending on how loose you become.

[tskillz187 0]

Yeah the sample size is surprisingly small. For example, over about 500k hands I have 5bet shoved AK with a full stack 34 times. I'm not sure if there is anything I can determine with these stats. I may just not be smart enough. However, I am losing lots of money when getting AK in aipf which is concerning. Anyone have some ideas? Just stop being so nitty? I'm running at about 18/15 this year at 100NL.

I run about the same at the same stakes. I don't always get AK aipf, it's villain dependent for me, not sure what your default line is.

[ChicagoMike22 0]

QFTI know absolutely nothing about your game. From the sounds of things though you're really tight. Does this make your 4bet/5bet range AA,KK,AK?If so it's perfectly acceptable to be losing with AK, as that hand is in your range so you continue to get action on AA and KK. You only lose a little with AK in general, but you gain a lot with KK and AA. That said you should probably increase your 4bet and 5bet ranges (Rdogs "don't be a nit" comment). Then you will start to show a profit with AK aipf probably, but now a new hand will show the losses, ie, AQ or AJ depending on how loose you become.

I see what you mean. I didn't think about it in terms of a range with the lower end losing, etc. However, I ran a filter just on raising 4bets / getting aipf / with over 95bb. and I am losing 531BB/100 over 128 hands. in a sample around 500k hands.Again, small sample, but a good amount of money. about $1900 total between 200NL & 100NL. EV adjusted -$1,462 with an aipf ev of 44%. Which with standard bet sizing when you 5 bet shove you need ~44% to break even. If I am doing the filtering correctly, with a aipf EV of ~44% I should be around breakeven. Is this just poor results over a small sample size?I'm trying to dig and find something that is causing my poor results, instead of blaming it on my curse.

[ChicagoMike22 0]

I run about the same at the same stakes. I don't always get AK aipf, it's villain dependent for me, not sure what your default line is.

No, I don't get it in preflop as default as I don't 3bet it in pos as default. However, I do 3bet oop close to 100% of the time most likely, and I would expect I 5bet over a 4bet very close to 100% baring extreme nits.

[tskillz187 0]

No, I don't get it in preflop as default as I don't 3bet it in pos as default. However, I do 3bet oop close to 100% of the time most likely, and I would expect I 5bet over a 4bet very close to 100% baring extreme nits.

I 3bet in position as a default, I'm more likely to flat OOP if we are 150bb+. Otherwise I'd 3bet OOP as well and be getting it in against someoen that I'm going to 3bet it against.

[ChicagoMike22 0]

I 3bet in position as a default, I'm more likely to flat OOP if we are 150bb+. Otherwise I'd 3bet OOP as well and be getting it in against someoen that I'm going to 3bet it against.

One of the main places I flat preflop is utg+1 against a reg's utg open. I do this because I believe a standard 100NL reg is folding a huge percentage of their utg opening range and only continuing with a tight range that limits my chances of winning a big pot.

[RDog 0]

Haha, just got playing Su11y and he calls us the goonsquad. Pretty sure he found the thread. He mainly shortstacks now so its much higher variance. Played 3/6 to 10/20 with him. Ended up getting like 500 before he called it a night.

[ChicagoMike22 0]

I see what you mean. I didn't think about it in terms of a range with the lower end losing, etc. However, I ran a filter just on raising 4bets / getting aipf / with over 95bb. and I am losing 531BB/100 over 128 hands. in a sample around 500k hands.Again, small sample, but a good amount of money. about $1900 total between 200NL & 100NL. EV adjusted -$1,462 with an aipf ev of 44%. Which with standard bet sizing when you 5 bet shove you need ~44% to break even. If I am doing the filtering correctly, with a aipf EV of ~44% I should be around breakeven. Is this just poor results over a small sample size?I'm trying to dig and find something that is causing my poor results, instead of blaming it on my curse.

Correction, I should be more than breakeven with the addition of fold equity of my 5bets. So if when I am called I am getting 44%, I should be doing well, no?

[RDog 0]

Mike, what is your 4 bet %? My guess is that is your problem. If I posted all the hands I got AIP within the last 6 months you would probably lyao but I guarantee that in those pots my equity is +. Not sure if it is quite as prevalent at 100 as 200 but I'm sure there are still a ton of 3 bet monkeys.

[RDog 0]

Also, the power of AK isn't so much how much money you will win with it when you get it AIP, it is just a really powerful hand to have in your range that plays decently against Villain's range. It allows you to get paid more on your big hands. My guess is that most of us if we filtered for AK AIP most of us are probably losing a little bit of money but that doesn't mean that we should stop getting it AIP. Just consider it the equivalent as putting a semi bluff in your range when you have a set a lot. The semi bluff may be -EV but it helps you make more money when you have a set.Edit: I mean, even when people are getting it in super light you are dominated or slightly behind their entire range except for AQ against some people. But the fact that you aren't folding AK and taking the flip while Villain puts 77 AIP is a good thing. Cause that allows us to 5 bet shove TT, etc profitably.

[ChicagoMike22 0]

Mike, what is your 4 bet %? My guess is that is your problem. If I posted all the hands I got AIP within the last 6 months you would probably lyao but I guarantee that in those pots my equity is +. Not sure if it is quite as prevalent at 100 as 200 but I'm sure there are still a ton of 3 bet monkeys.

There is a stat called "4bet range". Over the last 140k hands mine is 1.6.

[RDog 0]

There is a stat called "4bet range". Over the last 140k hands mine is 1.6.

Look at "Vs 3 bet Raise %". That is your 4 bet %.

[ChicagoMike22 0]

Also, the power of AK isn't so much how much money you will win with it when you get it AIP, it is just a really powerful hand to have in your range that plays decently against Villain's range. It allows you to get paid more on your big hands. My guess is that most of us if we filtered for AK AIP most of us are probably losing a little bit of money but that doesn't mean that we should stop getting it AIP. Just consider it the equivalent as putting a semi bluff in your range when you have a set a lot. The semi bluff may be -EV but it helps you make more money when you have a set.

Yeah I like flatting AK in pos against regs, especially nitty ones with a large fold to 3bet %. I believe they just do not put AK in your range b/c "you would 3bet AK". It helps get paid more on one pair hands.

[ChicagoMike22 0]

Look at "Vs 3 bet Raise %". That is your 4 bet %.

vs 3bet raise pct = 9.7

[RDog 0]

Yeah I like flatting AK in pos against regs, especially nitty ones with a large fold to 3bet %. I believe they just do not put AK in your range b/c "you would 3bet AK". It helps get paid more on one pair hands.

Eh, I flat against UTG ranges a decent amount with AK and occasionally UTG + 1 (or sometimes CO if Blinds are Squeeze monkeys) but I think in general not having your default be to 3 bet AK is probably a leak. The number of times you miss the flop or peel one off with 2 overs isn't going to offset the number of times you 3 bet and get folds and most importantly, help your image by 3 betting more often. By taking AK out of your range a decent amount of time you are weakening your 3 bet range considerably since AK is at the top of your 3 bet range. My guess is you aren't getting as much action with other big hands as you should be.Also, just card removal says you aren't going to get paid big a lot of the time when you actually hit your hand.

[RDog 0]

vs 3bet raise pct = 9.7

I am about 22/19 or so and my 4 bet % is a little over 11.

[ChicagoMike22 0]

Eh, I flat against UTG ranges a decent amount with AK and occasionally UTG + 1 (or sometimes CO if Blinds are Squeeze monkeys) but I think in general not having your default be to 3 bet AK is probably a leak. The number of times you miss the flop or peel one off with 2 overs isn't going to offset the number of times you 3 bet and get folds and most importantly, help your image by 3 betting more often. By taking AK out of your range a decent amount of time you are weakening your 3 bet range considerably since AK is at the top of your 3 bet range. My guess is you aren't getting as much action with other big hands as you should be.Also, just card removal says you aren't going to get paid big a lot of the time when you actually hit your hand.

Interesting. So your theory is that a 3bet with AK even if it only picks up the raise and the open (7bb) may be more profitable then AK played in pos post flop? including increasing your 3bet percentage which should increase your action on big hands KK+.I'm only averaging 2.2bb per AK. hmmmmmmmmmm

[chgocubs99 0]

Interesting. So your theory is that a 3bet with AK even if it only picks up the raise and the open 7bb may be more profitable then AK played in pos post flop? including increasing your 3bet percentage which should increase your action on big hands KK+.

Sorry to interrupt but please tell Jeff to quit ebing a homo and start posting again

[ChicagoMike22 0]

Rdog how many bb are you averaging per hand with AK?Jeff is a working man now; I think you guys got left behind.

[RDog 0]

Rdog how many bb are you averaging per hand with AK?Jeff is a working man now; I think you guys got left behind.

Not much higher than you, 2.4 bb. But that is my point. I don't think one is that much more profitable over the other but one does help your image MUCH more.

[Jordan 1]

congrats mike on having the baby

[ChicagoMike22 0]

Not much higher than you, 2.4 bb. But that is my point, I don't think one is that much more profitable over the other but one does help your image MUCH more.

I'll try 3betting it more as a default. I was working off this idea that 3betting the high end of my range was a waste verse a guy that folds to 80%+ of 3bets, b/c 80% of the time I am only picking up his open and the blinds.... but 7bb is 3x my average profit w/ AK. hmmmmm