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88 On The Ft Bubble


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We are five handed, and are on the FT bubble. Villain had been pushing about every 5-7 hands. If I win I am in 2nd place going to the FT. If I lose I have an M of just under 10, and will be around 7th or 8th. So, do we call, fold, or push?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)SB (t24240)BB (t33511)UTG (t16205)MP (t10258)Hero (t30210)Preflop: Hero is Button with 8diamond.gif, 8spade.gif. 1 fold, MP raises to t10183, Hero????

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With these middle pairs, it's basically coin-flip whether or not to take the risk. His range certainly includes 55+, A9+, KQs... or at least it would seem so. What kind of tourney is this (I'm guessing a $4.40).If the table has been in "push/fold mode" then I would lean towards calling. It's pretty close though, because you hardly ever have villain crushed here w/ an underpair or A8, or Ax x<8. Then again, his M is around 5, adjusted M is even less than that, so he's in desperation mode.You got the chips... gamboooool.

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I like a fold here. Maybe I'm weak-tight, but 30K is huge going into the final table. You are likely looking at a coinflip. I think the 10K you stand to lose is worth a LOT more than the 10k you stand to win.

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Yeah, in the $4.40 180 I'd instacall as well. That could be a very wide range of hands and you have him well covered. At that point of these, all in is the only play usually.
I'd instacall in a $530. The higher the buyin the more sure you can be that the Villain is aware of M and adjusted M and that he needs to make some moves to double. Against a random hand his 88 fares very well. Now this guy seems to understand M as he is pushing quite frequently so I think it's an easier call. This call is way tougher against opponents that don't know what they are doing and play overly tight. The only benefit to calling the overly tighties is you know they will bleed the chips back to you as long as they don't hit another big hand.
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Check to see if a player at the other table is on a super short stack... If there is a player on the sss I'd just fold and wait for them to go busto and keep my 30k for the final table.If there isn't a player on the sss I'd call if the table had been aggressive and not allowing me to steal blinds (which is going to be tough to do with the two big stacks in your blinds) but if the table had been passive I'd just fold and pick up some more blinds and antes and wait for a better spot.

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I'd instacall in a $530. The higher the buyin the more sure you can be that the Villain is aware of M and adjusted M and that he needs to make some moves to double. Against a random hand his 88 fares very well. Now this guy seems to understand M as he is pushing quite frequently so I think it's an easier call. This call is way tougher against opponents that don't know what they are doing and play overly tight. The only benefit to calling the overly tighties is you know they will bleed the chips back to you as long as they don't hit another big hand.
I agree with this.While it is an easier call against players who know their situation better, you should still call. His stack is 9BBs, so he's fairly desperate. Your hand is above average and ti only costs 1/3 of your stack.Get it in there and hope that his KJo doesn't draw out on you.
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Hes pushing every 5-7 hands on 5 or 6 handed tables, with a low M? To me that actually sounds fairly tight and I think youre dominated here too often to risk it. The only mitigating factor is that he's to your immediate right, so if neither of you are moved, youre in good position to take the chips back.

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I can see both sides of this debate but I'll give you my insight.If table is short handed and he is only pushing every 5-7 hands, he is playing tight. I have read the HOH and I use M to make my decisions but I can assure you I'm tighter than what the book says. Noting that, he has an affective M of just under 3, he is playing pretty tight where he should be pushing with any 2 not once or less every circuit. You are up against an Ax or broadway so why gamble here. It could be the time he has -77 but less likely.And if SB or BB hit a hand, then you'll be up against maybe 4 OCs. In reality, I don't mind the call(push) but I just don't see the need for a gamble. Compared to this table, I think the chips you have are still important and you can find a better spot.If you think about how villain is playing, I can't say this is an instant decision either way. Weak or not, I fold here.

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Thanks guys for the input. I did end up calling thinking "ZOMG 2nd place" as I did so. Villain had A9 and flopped the A. I went to the FT in 8th and ended up busting in 9th. After talking to a friend, I don't like the call as it's usually a coinflip, and the difference between 30k and 20k is greater at this point than 30k and 40k. Oh well, another lesson learned. That's why we're here, right?

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Still think calling is the right play for me. Now that we have the info that Villain pushed A9 I think it's legitimate to at least give him credit for pushing a4+ a2s+ 22+ and I'd think he's pushing 78s and all connecting hands plus. You have two bigger stacks in the blind next to you. You are playing five handed and are much more vulnerable to chip fluctuation. By calling, you give the other bigs a chance to cooperate call with you and knock him out and get to a full table. Even if you lose this hand but one of the bigs wins you get to be 9 handed and have more time to double. Even with the advantage of going back to a bigger table and thus easier blind steals (IMO) I think 88 is strong enough a hand to try and call off an all in from someones pushing every 6th hand.

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